In October 2025, global nickel smelting activity rose 3.2% month-on-month, rebounding from a September low, according to Earth-i’s SAVANT monitoring index.
Even with the lift, global inactive capacity averaged 17.6%, leaving activity 3.5% higher than a year ago and 2.9% above the three-year October average.
China drove much of the recovery. After a weak September, Chinese inactive capacity eased to 23.6% in October. That is still elevated — 14.6% higher year-on-year and 10.2% above the three-year average — but the shift suggests a near-term stabilisation in utilisation.
Indonesia moved the other way. The world’s largest nickel producer recorded a 2.2% drop in activity, with inactive capacity averaging 13.7%. Earth-i says this is Indonesia’s second-weakest reading since March 2024, signalling softer throughput heading into year-end.
The grade split remains decisive. Ferronickel continues to be the weakest segment: although activity improved 6.9%, inactive capacity still sat at 33.8%, meaning roughly one-third of capacity was offline. Nickel pig iron improved alongside China’s rebound, with inactive capacity falling to 19.2% after a 3.8% activity rise.
Regionally, Asia and Oceania remain the strongest at 6.1% inactive capacity, the only grouping in single digits. Europe is weakest after inactivity jumped to 80%, driven by patchy running at Boliden’s Harjavalta Class I smelter and the region’s heavier weighting to ferronickel plants.
Earth-i says the key watch for late 2025 is whether China’s recovery holds and Indonesia’s softness deepens.
If ferronickel outages persist while Class I stays firm, the market split between lower-grade oversupply risk and higher-purity tightness is likely to sharpen into 2026.
This content was created with AI assistance and human editing.
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