Global copper smelting activity fell again in October, with inactive capacity rising to 15.1% of world nameplate, the highest level recorded this year, according to Earth-i’s SAVANT Global Copper Monitoring Index.
The share of idle capacity lifted 1.7% month-on-month, pointing to a soft patch in refined copper supply as operators extend maintenance and curb throughput.
China drove most of the decline. The index shows Chinese inactivity jumping 6.9% to 13.8%, the steepest monthly rise since April 2024.
Yet the slowdown is uneven. East and South Central China – together close to 30% of indexed capacity – stayed relatively steady, with inactivity of 6.4% and 6.3% respectively. Downtime in these regions was limited to two Anhui smelters: Jinlong (Tongdu) 330,000 tonnes per year and Youjin Guanhua 100,000 tonnes per year.
By contrast, North, Northeast and Northwest China averaged around 40% inactivity, reflecting heavier maintenance and possible rationalisation.
Outside China, smelting activity improved, with the rest-of-world activity increasing by 2.2%, as deduced by a fall of the same magnitude in the active capacity sub-index to 16%.
Earth-i notes monitoring has not yet detected operating signals from the Kamoa-Kakula 500ktpa smelter, despite expectations of imminent commissioning.
The near-term signal is tighter refined supply if elevated Chinese downtime persists into December. The next watch-point is whether rest-of-world gains – and new African capacity – can offset North Asia’s pullback as copper demand trends higher into 2026.
This content was created with AI assistance and human editing.
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