For this week’s Transition Thursday, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO) reveals global fossil fuel emissions are forecast to rise in 2025 to a new all-time high, with all sources contributing to the increase.
CSIRO’s new global snapshot of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon sinks shows at least 35 countries have a plan to decarbonise.
Australia, Germany, and New Zealand, among others, have shown declines in fossil carbon emissions during the past decade, while other economies have continued growing.
China’s emissions have been growing at a much slower pace than recent trends and might even be flat by year’s end.
According to CSIRO, global CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels continue to increase and are set to rise by 1.1% in 2025. Emissions from natural gas rose 1.3%, followed by oil (1%), and coal (0.8%).
In 2025, fossil fuels produced 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions.
China is the top emitter, contributing 32% of global CO2 emissions, and will modestly increase by 4%. Emissions from India, contributing 8% globally, are also forecast to increase by 1.4%.
The US contributes 13% of global emissions, while the European Union contributes 6%.
Meanwhile, CSIRO reports natural carbon sinks in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems remove about half of all human-caused carbon emissions.
The organisation’s new data suggests these sinks are not growing as expected.
Since 2000, the land CO2 sink has been relatively stagnant, with a decline in 2024 due to warmer El Niño conditions on top of record global warming. Preliminary estimates for 2025 show a recovery of this sink to pre-El Niño levels.
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean characterised by a sustained warming of sea surface temperatures. In Australia, it is caused by major shifts in weather patterns, leading to drier and hotter conditions.
Net zero roadmap
Ahead of the global snapshot, CSIRO released an Australian Carbon Dioxide Removal Roadmap which details the potential for a novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) industry that could help the nation reach net zero.
The roadmap is led by CSIRO and supported by partners including the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Google, Geoscience Australia and the South Australian, Western Australian and New South Wales state governments. It builds on decades of CSIRO carbon dioxide research and innovation.
By 2025, Australia is projected to require between 133 and 200 megatonnes of CO2 removed from the atmosphere per year.
CSIRO’s roadmap outlines several approaches considered to be developed and deploying, including direct air capture and storage; biomass carbon removal and storage; ocean alkalinity enhancement; and enhanced rock weathering.
The roadmap modelling shows that even under conservative assumptions, Australia has potential to capacity for up to 330 million tonnes of CO2 removal per year by 2050 using novel technologies considered in the report.
CSIRO reports only a portion of this would be required when combined with existing conventional CDR approaches.
Futures Associate Director and co-author of the roadmap Vivek Srinivasan says the roadmap focuses on understanding the approaches that are scalable and durable, as well as economically viable.
“Across Australia and overseas, novel CDR projects are already active, demonstrating the viability of these technologies,” Srinivasan says.
2035 vision
Ahead of COP30 in Brazil, capital for new mines that will feed the global transition has been put under the spotlight by the Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030.
The blueprint 2035 vision for the industry outlines a plan for global operating standards the industry should collectively aspire to and which an US$18 trillion ($27.77 million) international investor coalition supports.
Resourcing Tomorrow – the anchor of London Mining Week held in December – says the plan envisages huge capital flows getting behind companies and governments supporting the highest possible operating standards.
At Resourcing Tomorrow 2025, technology is expected to be a hot topic of conversation, as LSE-listed Weir (LSE:WEIR) is reporting ‘positive’ momentum in its global market and its bullish prospects for new acquisitions.
Resourcing Tomorrow brings the global mining industry together to secure metals and minerals that power the future.
Malachite’s meaning
Vinicius Louro, CSIRO sustainability lead, explains how strategic metal copper, and mineral malachite, are wiring the world toward net zero goals.
Copper is an electrical and thermal conductor making it indispensable for many technologies. It is used in laptops, mobile phones, and many other electronic devices.
According to CSIRO, the mining industry forecasts that copper demand over the next decade will surpass the total amount mined in all history. The US Geological Survey reports roughly 700 million tonnes of copper has been produced around the world.
Copper is also one of the most recyclable materials on the plant and is 100% recyclable. CSIRO reports nearly 80% of all the copper mined is still in use today.
Nearly one-third of global copper demand is met through recycling, which is considered central to copper’s contribution to sustainability and the circular economy – minimising the need for new mining and lowering the environmental footprint of copper production.
Despite copper’s recyclability, demand for new copper sources is rising. Malachite – once a primary ore – is found in copper and highlights the evolving role of minerals in the circular economy.
Malachite, often found in areas with volcanoes, forms after other copper minerals have already been created and then decomposed by substances present in the same environment.
For example, CSIRO says when primary copper-rich minerals like chalcopyrite and bornite are exposed to fluids containing water, oxygen, or CO2, the copper in them dissolves and is carried away.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: CSIRO
