China’s weekend move to reopen limited civilian exports of key critical minerals offers short-term relief for manufacturers, but leaves Washington’s defence sector exactly where Beijing wants it – cut off.
Beijing’s decision to suspend parts of its critical minerals export ban has been hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, yet the mining industry sees the fine print showing the battlefield for antimony, gallium, and germanium, remains very much active.
The Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) on 9 November 2025 announced it is suspending parts of a 2024 export ban, giving some sectors brief breathing room. But the long shadow of its critical minerals strategy still looms over Western supply chains.
MOFCOM’s decision (screenshot below) to pause elements of its initial decree is already being framed as goodwill, but analysts and industry insiders note the shift simply restores a narrow corridor while strengthening China’s hand.
The changes, which took effect on Sunday and remain valid until 27 November 2026, retain China’s original ban on exporting dual-use items linked to US defence programs or for military end uses but pauses the clause referring to licensing and reviewing restrictions for the stated period.
Export operators can apply for export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce or provincial-level commerce authorities authorised by the Ministry, following the prescribed procedures.
Other restrictions and related regulations are continuing in accordance with the initial ban announcement.
Trade truce masks tight controls
China’s partial rollback is making noise as a trade truce but the silence underneath is louder. The changes reopen limited civilian channels (such as semiconductor and electronics manufacturers), yet core ban cutting off the US defence industrial base effectively remains in place, underscoring the strategic dimensions of Beijing’s mineral dominance.
It follows Chinese and US delegations convening on 25 October for talks on economic and trade issues. A MOFCOM spokesperson says during in-depth discussions between the presidents of China and America in Malaysia, it was agreed the two nations will strengthen cooperation in economic and trade areas among others.
The MOFCOM spokesperson says China stands ready to work with America to jointly uphold and implement the consensus of various topics reached by the presidents late last month. The trade talks in Kuala Lumpur may be seen as a step forward in a battle for China’s control of critical minerals and rare earths that started years ago and deepened through successive measures.
In 2023, China began licensing gallium and germanium exports. Then in December 2024, it escalated by prohibiting exports to US military users and refusing licenses for relevant dual-use items related to antimony, gallium, germanium, and ‘super-hard’ materials while enacting stricter export control checks on the dual-use item of graphite.
That initial directive fired off a clear warning – organisations or individuals from any country that transfer or provide China-origin related dual-use items to US entities in violation of its stated rules will be held legally responsible.
More than just a war of words, as a result of the bans, antimony shipments collapsed throughout 2025, driving prices to reach US$60,000 per tonne.
China’s pause, America’s pressure point
China, along with Russia and Tajikistan, account for 90% of global antimony production, which is creating significant supply risks for Western nations including Australia, Canada, and the US.
China accounts for almost half of the world’s mined antimony, controls roughly 99% of refined gallium production, and is responsible for more than 59% of refined germanium output. These minerals have various military applications – from armour-piercing ammunition to night vision goggles, nuclear weapons, and naval warships.
However, Blue Ocean Equities notes Chinese antimony mine production decreased from 110kt in 2015 to 40kt in 2023, as reported by Mining.com.au. The main drivers for this decline include depletion of higher grade resources and tighter environmental controls amid consolidation of small-scale mining.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that America has no primary antimony mine production and negligible domestic refining for gallium and germanium. Those gaps have turned these elements into strategic vulnerabilities for Western countries.
As such, the US has been dependent on Chinese or Chinese-controlled sources for refined gallium and germanium. However, securing domestic supply chains has been ramping up in America.
Power play or strategic pivot?
As reported by Mining.com.au, the question for junior and mid-tier miners remains – who can produce high-grade, clean concentrate quickly, with minimal technical and logistical hurdles, to serve both defence and industrial end-users?
One such company vying for a spot is Felix Gold (ASX:FXG), which is on the cusp of converting ‘ultra-high, military grades’ into commercial profitability with its Treasure Creek Antimony Project in Alaska.
Felix Executive Director Joseph Webb, who recently relocated to the US, says China’s latest move and partial lifting of the ban underscores the urgency for America to secure its own supply chains.
While the decision to temporarily suspend part of its export ban on key industrial metals has been widely reported as a diplomatic breakthrough, Webb says in reality, it falls well short of reopening strategic supply channels.
Although limited civilian exports may resume, the core restriction on supplying the US military remains firmly in place. He says this continues to frustrate emerging antimony companies with America-domiciled assets like Felix.
A standout feature of Treasure Creek, says Webb, is the unusually high, near-surface, low-impurity stibnite mineralisation – “the type of material that can produce military-grade concentrate with a simple flow sheet”.
Recent trench results show 3m @ 50.26% Sb and multiple surface rock chips in the 50% to 60% Sb range – grades Webb confirms already meets military-grade specifications.
On 7 October, Felix reported results continue validating the quality of its discovery, intersecting 5.87m at 4.34% antimony from 54m depth – including ‘ultra-high-grade’ intervals up to 38% – confirming the down-dip extension of its surface mineralisation with estimated true widths of 4m to 5m.
Another company with US-based antimony assets is Locksley Resources (ASX:LKY). The company recently achieved a final floatation concentrate grade of 68.1% Sb from multiple metallurgical testwork programs of surface samples collected at the Desert Antimony Mine prospect within the Mojave Project in California.
Locksley says these ‘high-grade’ results are evidence Mojave holds the “potential to deliver feedstock superior to current market supply streams and prospects”.
Concentrate returned at 95% of technical maximum stibnite grade of 71.68%, revealing minimal impurities and exceeding the marketable sales requirement of a minimum 55% grade.
Locksley is seeking to streamline mineralogical testwork to determine the stibnite deportment for further ore characteristic understanding and sample collection from underground work at Desert Antimony to expand the program.
The company has expanded the DeepSolv program to test a range of antimony feedstocks in different processing stages from multiple sources to strengthen US domestic supply of antimony, as reported by Mining.com.au.
Alaska’s super Nova
Another is Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA), which has started procurement of critical mining and processing equipment for its Estelle starter antimony mining operations and associated downstream antimony refinery at the deep-water Port Mackenzie, Alaska.
The company anticipates first production of military-grade antimony trisulfide targeted for 2026-27.
All equipment is scheduled for delivery in the coming months, ahead of transportation to site via the snow road in January 2026.
Equipment purchases include two ore sorters, following successful ore sorting test work which demonstrated strong potential for onsite recovery and upgrading of antimony ore.
A 500kg Styx sample achieved 60.3% antimony recovery in 26.1% of the mass from a single pass, increasing the feed grade from 15.2% to 35.2% Sb – a more than twofold improvement
Nova CEO Christopher Gerteisen says the company is rapidly progressing to become a fully integrated domestic producer of military-grade antimony.
“As a leader in this critical sector, we are laser focussed on securing a robust domestic supply chain for this vital defence material,” Gerteisen says.
“Fuelled by a non-dilutive US$43.4 million award from the US Department of War, we are currently procuring mining and processing equipment set for delivery in January 2026. We’re currently ahead of schedule, moving towards first production by 2026/27 with urgency.”
Front End Engineering Design (FEED), and logistics studies are advancing in parallel and nearing completion, finalising key operational parameters. Nova says these efforts align with the DoW award and US national defence priorities, positioning Nova as a strategic contributor to the domestic critical minerals supply chain.
Additional processing infrastructure, including a mill, flotation, and gravity circuits, is also currently being procured for transport to site via the snow road in early 2026.
Mistaking movement for momentum
Commenting on the late October China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, MOFCOM’s spokesperson says the meeting “yielded positive results, demonstrating that by upholding the spirit of equality, respect and mutual benefit, and through dialogue and cooperation, the two sides can find solutions to problems”.
“Noting that the outcomes are hard won, China looks forward to working with the US side to jointly ensure the implementation of the consensus, and inject more certainty and stability into bilateral economic and trade cooperation as well as the global economy,” the spokesperson adds.
However, the US Government continues its response to China’s dominance of critical minerals supply chains. Through the Defense Production Act and CHIPS and Science Act, funding has been directed toward domestic and allied production of critical minerals, including gallium, germanium, and antimony.
Projects in Alaska and Idaho – some with direct Department of Defense engagement – are seeking to reestablish strategic mineral independence.
“China looks forward to working with the US side to jointly ensure the implementation of the consensus, and inject more certainty and stability into bilateral economic and trade cooperation”
Yet new mining and refining capacity is expected to take years to scale. For now, the message being conveyed from Beijing is that civilian cooperation has limits, and strategic dominance and control remains policy.
The US acknowledges it must accelerate efforts to secure domestic and allied supplies of critical materials or continue facing the risk of supply chain bottlenecks.
America’s defence systems are deeply reliant on critical minerals, and China’s grip on exports, technology, and production is exacerbating supply chain disruption. Without expediting domestic capacity and facilitating cooperation with allies in critical mineral production, the US faces challenges in strategic preparedness in the Indo-Pacific region.
The critical minerals arms race is on. China’s minerals move hints at diplomacy but wreaks of strategy. Therefore the question remains – who will ultimately win the critical minerals battle?
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock, Unsplash & Mining.com.au
