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Tracking the gold surge: Surpassing JP Morgan predictions

Gold prices have continued throughout the entire beginning of the fourth quarter, surpassing JP Morgan’s predictions of US$4,000 ($6,172) per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. 

The precious metals’ reached US$4,365 per ounce at the time of writing, as investors sought safety amid rising US-China trade tensions and the ongoing US government shutdown. 

Over the past month, gold’s price has increased 19.10% and is up 61.83% compared to the same time last year, as reported by Trading Economics. 

Gold has surged more than 60% so far this year, supported by central bank buying, expectations of rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks.

In June 2025, JP Morgan research expected prices to average US$3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025. 

Head of Global Commodities Strategy Natasha Kaneva previously said JP Morgan examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, which resulted in the US$4,000-per-ounce forecast. 

Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion’s General Manager, says the overall sentiment and global interest for gold is undeniable.

“The overall sentiment for gold is very positive, with gold front page news again for investors worldwide,” Eliseo previously told this news service. 

According to Reuters, ANZ forecast that gold would reach US$4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025. This price increase is largely driven by rising geopolitical, economic, and financial uncertainties, as well as expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing. 

ANZ also anticipates gold will peak near US$4,600 per ounce by June 2026, followed by prices easing in the second half of the year. 

Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au   

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Written By Aaliyah Rogan
Originally from New Zealand, Aaliyah brings several years of experience covering the resources sector, with a focus on companies, commodities and global mining markets. Her reporting has spanned European markets and the evolving global mining landscape, with a focus on the stories and market forces driving change across the sector.