The mining sector is seeing the emergence of an ‘all commodity’ bull market, says Canaccord Genuity Head of Mining Research Reg Spencer.
Speaking at the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle today (17 February), Spencer notes there’s still volatility in the market, of which the causes “are many and interlinked”.
“Key drivers have been strong, but even inflation and jobs data, changes in policy rate expectations, moves in effects markets, volatile bond yields, elevated equity valuation, and the dominance of big tech and AI in global markets,” he says.
“Now, despite the fear, loathing and uncertainty that this volatility typically brings, and I will say this, knowing that I very much, very well may be the kiss of death, but I think we are still very much in the middle of a major commodity bull market.”
For readers of Mining.com.au this sentiment of an emerging or burgeoning is nothing new. In an interview with this news service in July 2025, legendary natural resource investor Rick Rule stated: “Make no mistake, we’re in a gold bull market.”
Rule at the time stated that other commodities would soon be joining the run, noting “we’re going to see a bull market that’s reminiscent of the bull market that we enjoyed in the early part of the decade of the 90s”.
Back in Fremantle, speaking to a packed auditorium, Spencer refers to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) – a premier, diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market – to make his point.
“Now, that (index) is predominantly made up of a whole bunch of different things, including energy, soft commodities. But precious metals and industrial metals comprise about 30-odd percent of that index,” he explains.
“Looking at this chart, it may suggest that the strength that we’ve seen in commodities over the last 12 months, maybe even less, let’s say 12 months, could be attributed to a falling US dollar.
“But if you look deeper into the fundamentals of all the key metal markets that investors like yourselves and companies and brokers like ourselves follow, You might see that the strength in these various commodity markets are far more structural and attributed to more than just US dollar weakness.”
Starting with gold, Canaccord’s Head of Mining Research notes so far this year, the gold price is up 16% and 73% in the past 12 months.
The key drivers of the rise in the gold price are all well known, he says, “but for the few uninitiated in the audience, you can put these down to geopolitical uncertainty, safe haven demand, Fed rate policy, US dollar weakness, record levels of government debt, currency and bond debasement, and associated central bank buy”.
While these key factors are well known, Spencer says many observers are still trying to process “what can only be described in financial market parlance as a smash up that we saw in gold in late January”.
That shakeout was attributed to the announcement of a new and hawkish Fed share, which then reset expectations for rate cuts and pushed up the US dollar. Spencer adds that this then triggers some pretty aggressive profit taking, especially after the 25% increase in prices in a month.
“But I would like to say, don’t lose faith,” he says.
Given the record rising gold price seen over the past several years, Spencer says the stellar run has attracted a larger number of speculators, as well as generalists.
A price of over $5,000 an ounce, may signal the market will need to become used to the volatility, he adds.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock & Mining.com.au
