When US President Donald Trump declared 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ and launched a bunch of tariffs on countries all around the globe, the price of silver – like many other metals – tumbled from its 2025 peak.
Prior to Liberation Day, silver reached a high of nearly US$35 ($54.47) an ounce in 2025, before sliding over 15% to below US$30 an ounce.
But that appears to have been an inflection point for the precious metal that has not previously enjoyed the same high-level interest that gold has.
Dennis Karp, Executive Chairman of gold and silver explorer Manuka Resources (ASX:MKR), says the metal has been a solid performer in the second quarter, increasing 10% since the start of the period.
This actually marks a bigger gain than gold, which is only up 8% over the quarter.
But Karp says this snapshot does not do justice to the performance of precious metals – and especially the performance of silver – since the lows witnessed post-Liberation Day.
“Silver is now 35% higher from those lows, and importantly has strengthened quite substantially against gold, having set a Liberation Day low at 104 (1 ounce of gold equalled 104 ounces of silver) and at time of writing has strengthened to 91 (1 ounce of gold is now worth 91 ounces of silver),” he explains.
While the silver price set a new 14-year high when it hit US$37.30 an ounce, that is still around 34% below its all-time high of US$50 an ounce. It did, however, set an all-time record in Australian dollar terms when it reached $57.50 an ounce in June.
Silver seen reaching new heights very soon
Manuka’s outlook for silver is very bullish, which Karp says is consistent with the broader market sentiment.
“It is Manuka’s strong conviction that silver will test its US$50/oz all-time high in Q3 2025, which would likely equate to a price of $75/oz,” Karp notes.
“We further believe that the increase in the silver price will not be accompanied by a similar increase in gold, and see a gold/silver ratio down to 80, which would imply a gold price of US$4000/oz.”
To capitalise on these tailwinds, Manuka is “pulling out all stops” to restart production at its Wonawinta Silver Project in the Cobar Basin of New South Wales later this year.
Manuka released an updated production plan in late May that outlines a 10-year operation producing 13.2 million ounces of silver from existing stockpiles and open pits at Wonawinta.
Additional gold ore from stockpiles at the Mt Boppy Gold Mine will also be hauled to Wonawinta and blended with silver ore to produce a valuable gold credit.
At a silver price of $50 an ounce, production is expected to generate average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $22 million each year at an average cost of $35 an ounce, giving the operation a net present value of $101 million and an internal rate of return of 109%.
Wonawinta hosts an updated reserve of 6.2 million tonnes @ 56 grams per tonne silver for the in-ground ore and 200,000 tonnes @ 60g/t silver and 0.07g/t gold in the stockpiles.
“Our Wonawinta Silver Project (100% owned by Manuka Resources), was previously the largest primary producer of silver in Australia and will again assume this position once production commences,” Karp says.
“We are the only production ready silver project in Australia.”
North American juniors gaining ground
Gary Thompson, CEO of North American pure-play Silver47 Exploration (TSX-V:AGA), also believes the price of silver is headed for US$50 an ounce in 2025.
“Silver has officially broken out to new highs – next stop US$41/oz, it’s just playing catch up to the major run we have seen in the price of gold,” he tells Mining.com.au.
“I believe that the silver price will move past US$40 which will be a new base going to US$50 late 2025-2026.”
Silver47’s flagship asset is the 620 km2 Red Mountain Project in Alaska, where it is currently undertaking a 4,000m fully funded drilling program to expand the resource.
In mid-May, the company announced a merger with Summa Silver (TSX-V:SSVR) to form a “premier US-focused silver exploration and development company”.
“On a pro forma-basis we went from an inferred resource of 168 million ounces silver equivalent to 246 million ounces silver equivalent and increased our precious/base metal ratio from 30% to 60%,” Thompson says.
Jason Weber, CEO of fellow North American pure-play Silver North Resources (TSX-V:SNAG), says the run in silver during the second quarter is due to a combination of factors including continued industrial demand, the fact that silver is “catching up” with gold and the tensions in the Middle East.
“I do see the recent rally as an inflection point and silver to continue making gains through the second half of 2025,” he tells this news service.
“There is a lot of momentum behind the industrial demand story, and I think that will continue. I think it is a bright outlook for silver throughout the remainder of 2025.”
Silver industrial demand hit a record in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year, climbing another 4% to 680.5 million ounces.
The Silver Institute says demand continued to benefit from structural gains linked to the green economy, including investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and photovoltaic applications.
Demand was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence, which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments.
Overall, global silver demand exceeded supply for the fourth consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024.
Silver North has made new silver discoveries in the famous Keno Hill District in Canada – considered one of the highest grade silver districts in the world.
According to the Yukon Government, between 1913 and 1989 4.87 million tonnes were mined at an average grade of 1,389g/t silver, 5.62% lead and 3.14% zinc. Over 65 deposits and prospects have been identified in the district.
Silver’s day in the sun still to come
Robert Eadie, CEO of Starcore International Mines (TSX:SAM), says silver really has not had its day in the sun for several reasons.
“There’s a large amount that can be recycled, but I know from reading that we’ve eaten through that and now there’s a deficit,” Eadie tells Mining.com.au.
“The silver market, I think, is going to do extremely well, and if you were to put a silver mine in production, it would take you three to five years in a very good jurisdiction, having everything in place and technically having everything together.
“So you’re really looking at six to eight years. And there’s a limited number of pure silver producers on the planet.”
While Starcore’s primary focus is gold production at its San Martin mine in Mexico, silver is produced as a byproduct.
The underground epithermal deposit has an average grade of 2.31g/t gold and 18g/t silver. Historically the mine has produced over half a million ounces.
San Martin has measured and indicated resources of 97,396 ounces of gold and 720,623 ounces of silver and inferred resources of 47,972 ounces of gold and 355,856 ounces of silver.
This includes proven and probable reserves of around 96,298 ounces of gold and 710,435 ounces of silver.
Investors appear to now be starting to pay closer attention to the silver players.
Manuka’s Karp says the company has witnessed good retail interest over the past two and a half months which has driven the company’s share price over 60% higher.
“The increase in interest has also led to an increase in trading volumes which again bodes very positively for the company,” Karp says.
“As our Wonawinta Silver Project is the most advanced emerging silver producer in Australia, with all approvals intact as well as a substantial plant, mine camp and on-site office infrastructure all in good working order and heading towards a likely restart of silver production later this year, we do expect retail demand to continue positively, as the Manuka story gains traction.”
Manuka is also in the process of completing a debt refinancing, which Karp says has generated increased interest.
“The improved economics arising from the higher silver price has led to a material increase in the number of institutional parties interested in participating in our refi,” Karp notes.
Silver47’s Thompson says the funds are starting to come back into the junior mining names and more recently silver has been the focus for investors.
Write to Angela East at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au, Manuka, Silver47 & Starcore
