The price of gold could soon breach US$3,000 ($4,745) a troy ounce before hitting US$3,500 this year, says Trojan Gold CEO Charles J Elbourne.
Speaking to Mining.com.au in a wide-ranging interview, Elbourne remains bullish on the gold price amid higher forecasts of central bank buying, which exceeded expectations in December 2024.
“When this thing turns and it will – I’m watching gold right now and it’s going to break through that US$3,000 number. I never thought that I could ever say that I see gold going to US$3,500, but I think maybe it can,” the CEO tells this news service.
With the current price at about $US2,950, Elbourne says such a peak is within reach.
“From a technical perspective, what’s going on with gold? It’s not the little guy in the street buying – that’s not where it’s coming from. The banks are acquiring gold like crazy,” the CEO says.
The World Gold Council reports that central banks have scored a hat-trick, with demand topping 1,000 tonnes for the third year straight. Central banks added 1,045 tonnes to global gold reserves in 2024, with the National Bank of Poland leading the charge adding 90 tonnes.
Meanwhile, Elbourne says that if policy uncertainty remains elevated or concerns about tariffs are sustained, this will further drive demand for safe haven assets like gold, pushing prices higher.
Trojan Gold’s CEO is not alone in his bullish outlook. Goldman Sachs Research expects the precious metal’s rally to continue amid demand from central banks.
The firm predicts a surge as high as US$3,100 by the end of 2025. However, Goldman Sachs notes continued uncertainty around tariffs, geopolitical risk, and fears about high government borrowing could drive the price as high as US$3,300.
In the December 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly report, the Australian Government’s Department of Industry Science and Resources (DISR) reports gold prices have been boosted by global economic uncertainty and major central banks to remain elevated in 2025 before falling in 2026.
In 2024, prices were boosted by global economic uncertainty and major central banks easing monetary policy and remained elevated in 2025. However, DISR projects a dip in the price in 2026 by as much as 8.7% to average nearly US$2,300 an ounce.
“This fall reflects higher gold mine output, lower official sector buying and reduced concerns over inflation. The key upside risk to forecast prices remains geopolitical uncertainty,” DISR reports.
Longforecast.com believes the price of the precious metal will surge more than 23% in 2025 to close the year at US$3,538. However, while DISR expects prices to fall next year, Longforecast.com doesn’t expect that decline to occur until 2027 and predicts at the end of 2026 it could sit at US$4,121.
Meanwhile, in an outlook survey published in March by BullionVault, 1,440 respondents on average predict a price rise in gold to US$3,070 by the end of December 2025.
A range of factors have influenced higher prices including global monetary easing, continued central bank purchases (including the new BRICS+ group), and surging demand for ‘safe-haven’ assets amidst conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The strength of the US economy and concerns about America’s inflation present the primary downside risk for the price of the yellow metal in the near term. As of the time of writing, the US economy has been rattled by President Donald Trump waging trade wars, with fears the country is heading towards a recession.
America’s economic strength has helped boost the US dollar against other currencies and raised expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts down the line. As a result, the gold price has not risen as fast as some analysts expected – but may make gains in the near future should the global economy deteriorate.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: ABC Bullion & Trojan Gold
