The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Mining.com.au, its affiliates or the companies Scott North is associated with.
China has just thrown a curveball at the rare earths market. For the first time in over a decade, Beijing has set its annual mining and smelting quotas without telling anyone outside its state-owned inner circle what the numbers are. No press release, no statement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, no hint on tonnage. Just quiet paperwork to two big state operators and a reminder the details are now “security information”.
For an industry that lives on supply signals, it’s a big deal. Those quota announcements were the one reliable insight into how much of these critical elements would hit the market each year. Without them, the industry is flying blind and that seems to be the point.
In 2024, quotas were 270,000 tonnes of rare earth ore and 254,000 tonnes of refined oxides up just 5% from 2023, well down on the 21% jump the year before. This year? Your guess is as good as anyone’s. The secrecy leaves the market wondering if China is holding steady, quietly expanding to feed domestic demand, or tightening supply to lift prices.
Prices have already twitched. As of 10 August 2025, neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide – the bread and butter for high-strength magnets – was trading around US$89.74 ($137.59) per kilogram, up just over 20% since January. Dysprosium and terbium, the heavy rare earths that give magnets high-temperature performance, are up about 29% and 42%, respectively, year to date at roughly US$198/kg and US$1,983/kg. Not panic levels, but enough to show a geopolitical risk premium is creeping back into magnet metals.
Another lever
The timing is no accident either. Rare earths are now another lever in the broader trade and tech fight between China and the West. Last year’s export licence rules for certain magnet alloys slowed shipments and even idled some overseas EV and wind turbine lines. That episode showed how quickly resource dominance can translate into industrial disruption. Keeping quota figures hidden adds another layer of uncertainty.
It’s already changing behaviour, magnet makers and original equipment manufacturers outside China are stretching inventory cover. Offtake talks with non-Chinese producers, even those years from first production, are moving up board agendas. One broker summed it up: “If you can lock in supply now, do it. You won’t be negotiating from a position of strength in six months if Beijing decides to tighten.”
For miners and developers, the mood is mixed, the lack of hard numbers creates a narrative tailwind for projects in Australia, North America and Africa. Higher prices, nervous customers and supportive governments all help capital raising. But veterans know the danger, China can just as easily dump material and put new competitors back on ice. That’s why the smart players are chasing cost competitiveness and downstream integration, not betting on a permanent shortage.
This opacity could be the prelude to something bigger. A surge in Chinese domestic demand, say, from an EV production push could quietly shrink exports without an official “cut”. Or, if Beijing wants to spook the market into over investing in alternative supply, it could later lift quotas and undercut prices, leaving new entrants stranded. Both scenarios are plausible, which is why sentiment swings between cautious optimism and wariness.
Stronger demand
Investors may remember the last politicisation of rare earths. In 2010, a spat with Japan saw China halt exports for two months. Prices for key magnet materials went vertical, some more than fivefold, and money poured into new projects. Within years, most were dead or struggling after China turned the taps back on. This time, demand is stronger, EVs, wind turbines and defence all pulling hard and Western governments are putting real money into diversification. But the fundamentals haven’t changed, China still controls the bulk of supply and can move the market at will.
The response has also been very interesting and great for the resource sector overall. In the US, MP Materials (NYSE:MP) has a Pentagon-backed price floor for NdPr at US$110/kg, insulating it from downside while it ramps processing and magnet manufacturing. In Australia, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) is adding refining capacity at home to reduce reliance on Malaysia’s regulatory environment. In Europe, magnet makers are quietly paying premiums for non-Chinese feedstock just to keep supply options open.
From here, the path splits. If China’s 2025 quotas match last year’s, prices will likely settle into a firmer but steady range, enough to keep non-Chinese projects moving without sparking a frenzy. If quotas are flat or lower and exports slip, prices will jump, stockpiling will accelerate, and developers will see their best financing window in years. But if China boosts output, recent gains could vanish, catching out anyone who overpaid for inventory or equity in the heat of the moment.
For now, opacity is here to stay and that alone changes the risk calculus. When the world’s biggest supplier stops telling you how much it’s producing, every tonne outside its borders becomes more valuable – politically and commercially. The industry’s new reality hedge, diversify, and get used to the idea that the real numbers may never be public again.
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