As Santa comes closer and the industry winds down for festivities, Mining.com.au is unwrapping a 12-day feature macro series exploring the forces shaping the sector.
On the eleventh day of Christmas, 11 voices from across the resources sector – executives, advocates, and analysts helping shape the mining industry – tell the story that is more than a carol.
From capital markets running at “two speeds”, to optimism that the long-term chart still points up and to the right, these voices tell a story of resilience, discipline and opportunity.
There is a caution to: of scarce capital at the junior end, of reforms still waiting to land, and of supply chains being quietly re-engineered in an increasingly complex world.
As miners complete their last haul, this news service asked the industry: How does mining see the future it is building?
Here is what they told us…
Tinsel talks
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Warren Pearce, CEO of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC), says there has been strong growth in the commodity sector this year, led by gold.
As previously reported on the fifth day of Christmas, gold demand rose 10% in the first three quarters of 2025, led by strong investment flows according to data from the World Bank Group.
Nasim Tyab, CEO of Stockworks Gold (TSX-V:STW), says record breaking gold prices has propelled the company’s management to expedite exploration across its Perinopolis Gold Project in Brazil.
“A drone mag survey was recently completed and a soil geochemistry program to start shortly, with the goal of drilling identified targets during the second quarter of next year,” Tyab says.
Tyab adds that the strong gold prices have changed the economics of the company’s assets.
“The gold prices will certainly amplify interest as Perinpolos was one of the areas founded on Brazil’s big gold rush in the 1700s and subsequently Brazil’s largest gold mines were discovered in former gold rush areas.
“I would describe the gold market as stellar ints performance and the long-term prospects look very good according to many industry experts.”
Despite gold’s ‘stellar’ year, Sunshine Metals (ASX:SHN) Managing Director Damien Keys explains that it has been a “pretty brutal” year for junior explorers.
“I think the juniors that have kept pushing forward through that crack period, those guys that have done the work are starting to get rewarded for that,” Keys tells this news service.
“I think certainly, if you’re telling a production story and you’re moving projects towards a production outcome in these record old times, you can expect to get rewarded for that.”
WIN Metals (ASX:WIN) CEO Steve Norregaard echoes a similar statement as he believes the gold space is the right space to be in.
“If you can get yourself producing gold, you’re in a much better part of the gold space than if you’re exploring for the stuff,” Norregaard says.
Gold producers have been among the clear beneficiaries. One example, Endeavour Mining (TSX:EDV) is showing strong growth, where CEO Ian Cockerill says there has been a clear broadening of interest.
“One indicator being ETF inflows which are at record levels (US$10.5 billion in September),” Cockerill tells this news service.
“Equity valuations have trailed the metal, which suggests room for a catch-up.”
Cockerill adds that Endeavour is “uniquely” positioned among gold miners delivering growth – targeting between 30% to 35% growth through the end of the decade – and yielding the company’s dividend higher than peers.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) adds that the rally in precious metals is driven by falling interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and resilient industrial demand.
In September 2025, the US Federal Reserve began cutting rates, making non-interest-bearing assets – gold – more attractive. Markets now anticipate nearly 100 basis points (bps) of cuts by mid-2026, which is more than CBA’s forecast of 75bps by March.
“There has also been positive progress for the critical minerals industry, with the introduction of the critical minerals production tax incentive,” Pearce tells this news service.
In November last year, the Australian Government introduced legislation that will provide tax incentives for critical minerals production. The proposed law will set up a tax incentive worth 10% of the relevant processing and refining costs for Australia’s list of 31 critical minerals.
Pearce says the combination of this momentum leads the industry to believe the broader environment ahead in 2026 will see further growth.
Sharing that optimism is Pivotal Metals’ (ASX:PVT) Managing Director Ivan Fairhall as he says “measured over any reasonable timeframe, the chart is always up and to the right”.
“Pivotal sees its priority is to find metals that are in demand, and do so in a way that is accretive to our shareholders and is sustainable for the communities within which we work,” Fairhall tells this news service.
Pivotal’s Horden Lake Project has more than 400,000 tonnes copper-equivalent, which Fairhall says “underwrites the market cap”.
A two-speed sleigh
Despite an improving sentiment, Fairhall says the capital markets remain divided.
“But it’s still a two speed market where there is scarcity at the junior end,” Fairhall says.
“This means only the better opportunities are being funded, and capital discipline remains paramount.”
The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) reports the nation is missing out on an average of $68 billion worth of potential investment per year, with major mining projects increasingly put in the too-hard basket due to a challenging investment environment.
“Australia is one of the most expensive countries to do business,” the MCA says.
That pressure and challenge is felt mostly by junior explorers.
Robert Kirtlan, Chairman of Renegade Exploration (ASX:RNX), says that junior explorers are running into more financial challenges in Australia compared to in the US and other parts of the world.
“I have never been made to be unwelcome in the US – when I had a work permit they used to say ‘welcome home’,” Kirtlan tells this news service.
“I really like working here [Australia], but I’m bumping into ‘we want more money to do clearances and drilling.
“They’re getting in the way of the juniors exploring because they’re sucking the money out up front. Ultimately, that will kill the industry.”
Kirtlan notes that junior companies are getting quotes between $20,000 to $50,000 – or in Western Australia’s case more than $100,000 – for native title clearances.
“A mate of mine was going to do a $300,000 reverse circulation drill program and it was going to cost $200,000 to clear it,” he says.
Season of scarcity
This is not just an Australian problem. The under-investment trend has expanded internationally, as SPC Nickel (TSX-V:SPC) CEO Grant Mourre explains that the mining sector has had several years of “under-investment and permitting bottlenecks”.
“That’s created a two-tier market: high-quality, low-cost assets in good jurisdictions and scarce and a command premium, while early-stage or higher cost projects are struggling to attract capital,” Mourre says.
According to BDO, more than $2.1 trillion of new investments are required by 2050 to meet global net zero emissions targets.
BDO’s Explorer Quarterly Cash Updates show that for ASX-listed explorers, there was a period of under-investment between 2014 and 2020. Since 2020, exploration expenditure increased, however there was a further decrease in recent quarters as a result of commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainties.
Mourre adds that agencies, such as BDO and the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as various industry groups are consistently warning that, “without new investment,” the industry faces supply gaps in key commodities.
Copper is a prime example. Wood Mackenzie reports that copper demand is forecast to increase by nearly a quarter in 2035. However, investment in greenfield mines is failing to keep pace.
To balance supply in 2035, Wood Mackenzie estimates around 8 million per year of new mining capacity is expected, as well as 3.5 million tonnes of supply from recycled scrap.
Meanwhile, Swiss multinational investment bank UBS forecasts a copper market deficit of 230,000 tonnes in 2025, up from 53,000 tonnes previously and to 407,000 tonnes in 2026, up from 87,000 tonnes before.
Supply challenges are extending to other commodities, such as tin which has been hit by a series of supply shocks, as Elementos (ASX:ELT) Managing Director Joe David tells Mining.com.au.
David says this is due to “Myanmar export restrictions and Indonesian corruption investigations, and crackdown on illegal exports”.
2026 to shine bright
It is not all bad news though, as WIN Metals’ Norregaard says there has been some investments in rare earths projects within Australia.
“I think that is going to be an ongoing theme [for 2026],” Norregaard notes.
Antares Metals (ASX:AM5) CEO Johan Lambrechts is another executive who is remaining optimistic about the industry’s future, as he says there will be a “strong copper market for the future”.
“I see the uranium market heading in the same direction,” Lambrechts tells Mining.com.au.
“I don’t believe the question relating to energy should centre around renewable energy versus carbon-based versus nuclear energy. Instead, I believe our society, industry and economy require such vast quantities of electricity, that we need all of the above sources – just to meet demand.”
As the industry closes out the year, these 11 voices tell a clear story – mining is entering a new phase necessary for transition and capital discipline.
Despite the challenges, the mining industry presents long-term opportunity and outlook remains intact.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au, Elementos, SPC Nickel, Pivotal Metals, & Sunshine Metals
