GEM Mining Consulting reports that there is a key issue in the sector regarding sulfuric acid availability, following China’s suspension on exports earlier this year.
According to data from the UN Comtrade Database, Chinese exports rose from 1.72 million tonnes in 2020 to 2.84 million tonnes in 2021 and 3.64 million tonnes in 2022. In 2023, it remained high at 2.51 million tonnes, followed by 2.68 million tonnes in 2024.
Customs-based reporting for 2025 highlighted another surge, with 1.8 million tonnes of sulfuric acid exported between January and May, and 3.89 million tonnes between January and October.
GEM Mining says this is considered important because China was still a structural net exporter. In 2024, the nation imported only 162,000 tonnes, with 96.6% of it from South Korea.
“The global shock is the removal of export tonnes from the seaborne market rather than a rise in Chinese import demand,” GEM Mining says.
According to GEM Mining, the market was also concentrated.
In 2024, Chile absorbed 47.7% of Chinese sulfuric acid exports, followed by Morocco (12%), India (11.9%), Saudi Arabia (10.7%), and Indonesia (8.9%) — representing 91.1% of Chinese exports.
Between January and May 2025, Chile took 715,000 tonnes — representing 40% of all Chinese exported volume during that period.
Why it matters
GEM Mining says that the main pressure point sits in Chile, as the nation purchases more than 1 million tonnes annually from China in normal years, and about one-fifth of Chilean copper output uses acid-dependent processing.
As such, Latin America is likely to see the largest immediate merchant-acid repricing due to Chile combining structural deficit, mining concentration in the north, and long seaborne supply chains.
Africa is the second transmission channel, while in Asia, the pressure point is sulfuric acid, as well as sulphur feedstock.
Meanwhile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and India are affected less through mining, and more so through phosphate and fertiliser chains.
Morocco imported about 2.01 million tonnes in 2024, while India relied heavily on South Korean and Japanese supply.
GEM Mining says that India is better placed than Chile due to already importing large volumes of sulfuric acid from Japan and South Korea, while also adding domestic sulphur-burning capacity.
“The broad rule is simple: regions with captive smelter acid or sulphur-burning plants can absorb the shock better than regions that rely on spot merchant cargoes,” GEM Mining notes.
For 2026, GEM Mining believes that the market watch list should be on whether Beijing enforces a full halt or a quota system, whether Middle East sulphur flows normalise, and how fast Chile can replace cargoes from Peru, Japan, and South Korea.
The market watch list should also be on whether Indonesian high-purity acid leach and phosphate fertiliser buyers reduce run rates or pay up.
“The medium-term answer is more local production and better contract coverage: sulphur-burning plants in India, captive acid from copper and zinc smelters, larger storage in Chile, and new African reagent plants from 2027 onwards,” the mining consulting firm says.
Sulfuric acid is a widely produced industrial chemical, used in producing phosphate fertilisers, chemical synthesis, petroleum refining, metal processing, and lead-acid battery manufacturing.
The phosphate industry
Without phosphates mined from the ground and processed into fertilisers, modern agriculture would not be possible, as this news service reported.
Since production was first recorded in 1847 in England, more than 2 billion tonnes of phosphate rock has been mined globally, according to the South Australian Government.
As of 2017, world phosphate resources were estimated at circa 300,000Mt, of which 95% are sedimentary and 5% are igneous. GeoScienceWorld reports current known USGS reserve estimates are sufficient for a maximum of 200–300 years, echoing the sentiments of Simpson.
Nevada Organic Phosphate (CSE:NOP) is one of the mining companies focused on positioning itself at the forefront of a significant shift in global agriculture.
The company believes it has the only organic sedimentary deposit of organic phosphate in the world, via its Murdock Mountain Project in Nevada.
As Mining.com.au reported, CEO Robin Dow notes that there is some organic phosphate production in Brazil, a project of about 50–75 million tonnes, which is consequential to Brazil but won’t impact the market elsewhere.
“We’re going to have the only large sedimentary organic phosphate deposit in the world and it’s right here in our backyard,” Dow says.
“It’s simple to mine with no waste, no water consumption, and the product that’s mined is consumed 100%.”
Aguia Resources (ASX:AGR) is also shaping up as one of the more pragmatic phosphate stories in global mining, with a strategy centred on low-cost production and market positioning in Brazil.
The company’s focus on the Três Estradas Phosphate Project in southern Brazil, coupled with opportunistic processing arrangements and structured financing, is illustrative of its aspirations to grow from an early explorer into a near-term cash flow generator, as previously reported.
Looking ahead to early 2027, Aguia expects Três Estradas to be operating at full capacity with sales of its Pampafos product and plans to then double production with the installation of a second processing circuit at the leased site, costing in the order of $5 million.
By this point, Aguia’s cash flow could also double to $40 million annually, with an additional $20 million being generated by the investment to double production by installing a second processing circuit — a return on investment value multiple of five times the cost.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Unsplash
