Yesterday Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) reported a strong first half of 2026, in part thanks to a buoyant copper price.
The red metal, known as ‘Dr Copper’ because of its use in industry and association with economic growth, is up more than 30% year-on-year.
Copper has traded at all-time highs in 2026. That’s been an earnings tailwind not just for Rio but also for firms like BHP Group (ASX:BHP) and Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR).
Much of the excitement around copper comes from the use case in data centres, renewable energy, and electric cars.
There’s a chance the market could pull back in the short term. That’s according to commodity trader Andrew Pancholi of Market Timing Report.
His ‘seasonality’ analysis of copper shows that it has a historic pattern of peaking in July and dropping into late August or even early September.
The chart below compares the historic pattern (orange line) with current price action (green line).
This is not to say there’ll be no future opportunity around copper, only that it may be prudent to see what happens over the next few weeks.
The wider context should also be considered. The Middle East conflict is in danger of escalating and rattling the outlook for economic growth.
There’s also another factor to consider.
Right now, copper inventories in the US are at very high levels. A recent report says that Commodity Exchange (COMEX) warehouses hold a record 630,000 tonnes after eight straight quarters of rising levels.
This has come about after US President Donald Trump threatened to place tariffs on imports of copper from 2027 onwards, with the potential for an escalating tariff, too. That’s drawn copper to the US as market participants prepare for the possible change.
While copper is likely to remain a strong long-term theme for the mining industry, volatility stemming from the Middle East and a falling US stock market could dampen prices in the short term.
Of course, any major drilling results or exciting discoveries should move the associated stock regardless of the short-term gyrations in the price.
Write to Callum Newman at Mining.com.au
Images: Market Timing Report & Unsplash
