Targeting critical minerals with relatively small market sizes could offer one of the most cost-effective ways to strengthen global supply chains, provided that governments back new projects and the right policies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook, the Agency highlights “strategic minor minerals” as becoming increasingly important as demand from artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, defence, and clean energy technologies grows.
The report identifies gallium, magnet rare earth elements, yttrium, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, cobalt, and germanium as among the minerals facing the greatest supply risks due to their high concentration, limited substitutes, and growing importance across multiple industries.
However, many of these materials are produced and processed by only a handful of countries, leaving supply chains exposed to disruptions, such as export restrictions.
Prices rebound
After several years of declines, critical mineral prices recovered in 2025 and early 2026 as supply tightened amid concerns over disruptions caused by concentrated supply chains.
Strategic minor minerals led the gains, with prices more than doubling in many cases. Tungsten, for example, rose sixfold as demand from the electronics, aerospace, and defence sectors increased alongside tighter export controls.
Source: IEA
The IEA says export restrictions have also created sharp price gaps between China — the top producer of many minerals — and overseas markets. In Europe, gallium and heavy rare earth prices are now about five times higher than in China, while germanium prices are nearly three times higher.
Supply remains concentrated
In tandem with rising prices, the report highlights that refining capacity of these minerals became even more concentrated in 2025, with China accounting for most supply growth across minerals including graphite, manganese, and nickel.
Rare earths were the exception, with new refining capacity in the US and higher production in Malaysia helping reduce concentration slightly.
Excluding rare earths, the leading refining country accounted for 72% of global refined supply in 2025, up from 70% two years earlier.
The IEA says the risks of concentrated supply chains became clear after China introduced export controls on heavy rare earths and later expanded restrictions to battery materials, graphite products, and battery manufacturing technologies.
Those measures disrupted downstream industries, with some automakers temporarily reducing production due to shortages of rare earth materials.
Tungsten in focus
The report points to tungsten as an example of a strategically important mineral with a highly concentrated supply chain.
Source: IEA
Source: IEA
China controls about 80% of global tungsten mine production and dominates downstream processing, making it a critical supplier to the aerospace, defence, and electronics industries.
As Western governments look to diversify supply, companies are moving to restart domestic production after more than a decade without active tungsten mining in either the US or Canada.
American Tungsten (TSX-V:TUNG) is advancing plans to restart the historic IMA Mine in Idaho, US, while Northcliff Resources (TSX:NCF) is developing the Sisson Project in New Brunswick, Canada, another former producer and home to one of the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten deposits.
Exploration is also taking place at or near these deposits. American Tungsten is currently conducting underground drilling at IMA to expand the mine’s known mineralised system. Makenita Resources (CSE:KENY) is looking at potential drilling near Sisson.
Companies are also targeting critical minerals further up north, with Yukon gold explorer White Gold (TSX-V:WGO) adding tungsten to its portfolio, while Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX:AVL) is zooming in on a suite of rare earth and critical minerals in the Northwest Territories of Canada.
Some are following the strategy of seizing opportunity in niche minerals in the underexplored parts of the world. These include Connected Minerals (ASX:CML), with a niobium project in Angola that it compares geologically to globally known deposits in Brazil.
All these efforts reflect the stronger emphasis in the West on supply diversification for critical minerals.
“Right now, there’s much greater demand, while companies and governments are trying to secure larger quantities,” says Makenita’s President Jason Gigliotti.
Policy support needed
The IEA says diversifying supply does not necessarily require massive investment.
Because many strategic mineral markets are relatively small, bringing a limited number of new projects into production could significantly improve supply security, it says.
For example, the Agency estimates diversifying global magnet rare earth supply chains would require about US$60 billion ($85.73 billion) in investment over the next decade — modest compared with the economic costs of major supply disruptions.
To encourage investment, the Agency recommends governments use targeted measures such as grants, concessional loans, loan guarantees, strategic stockpiles, and long-term offtake agreements.
It recommends that support should be tailored to each mineral, with capital-intensive mining projects requiring different incentives from refining and downstream processing.
The IEA report concludes that while strategic minor minerals represent relatively small markets, they underpin industries worth trillions of dollars.
That alone makes them increasingly important to economic security as demand for advanced technologies continues to grow.
Write to Jackson Chen at Mining.com.au
Images: American Tungsten & International Energy Agency
