Australia’s commodity prices easing in 2024

Following record high commodity prices and earnings during 2022-2023, the Australian government’s latest Resources and Energy Quarterly says the sector’s tailwinds are expected to ease over the 2024-2025 period. 

Due to weaker growth in world demand and improving world commodity supplies, Australia’s export earnings are forecasted to retreat from a record $466 billion during 2022/2023 to $408 billion in 2023/2024. 

Economists at the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources report that most of Australia’s resource and energy exports are expected to fall during 2024/2025. 

Among all of Australia’s resource commodities, iron ore remains the largest earner by far. 

Australia is the largest iron ore producer in the world and the industry earned $124 billion in export revenue during 2022/2023. However, DISER forecasts these earnings to drop over the next few years. 

The government anticipates that during 2023/2024, iron ore will earn about $131 billion, but earnings will then fall significantly to just shy of $100 billion in 2024/2025. 

Meanwhile, DISER economists report that Australia’s gold exports are expected to lift to $27 billion in 2023-2024 compared to $24 billion this last year. 

For gold, prices are likely to remain elevated before easing as global inflation and safe-haven buying decline. This comes after gold hit record high prices of US$2,070.90 per tonne on 1 December 2023. 

As a result of prices falling, exports will be cut to just over $20 billion in 2024-2025. 

During the September quarter, Australian gold production decreased to 72 tonnes due to lower reported grades, planned maintenance, and several mines being put in care. 

Next year, Australia’s resource and energy exports remain are expected to remain relatively soft. This is due to a large amount of project delays throughout 2023 and weather conditions. 

However, it is during 2024/2025 that the country will see a significant decline in export earnings. 

In volume terms, most resource exports are likely to show only modest growth in 2024, but economists say an improved world economy growth will be picked up in 2025. 

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Images: Department of Industry, Science and Resources
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Written By Aaliyah Rogan
Relocated from the East Coast in New Zealand to Queensland Australia, Aaliyah is a fervent journalist who has a passion for storytelling. When Aaliyah isn’t writing stories, she is either spending time with friends and family or down at the beach.