The world, it seems, has turned on governments whose championing of so-called progressive policies around the environment, gender equity, and gay rights is now viewed by voters as out of touch and ignorant of how to address the economic challenge of this decade: the cost of living.
In Canada, the once wildly popular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned early in the new year following months of pressure on his nine-year-old government, criticised for failing to combat a flatlining economy and a property market now seen as impossible to access.
Trudeau’s resignation is the latest in a series of progressive political dominoes to fall, after New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern and Germany’s Angela Merkel both exited stage left on policy platforms that voters routinely cite as being disconnected from the real economy while testing social harmony.
The New York Times wrote of Trudeau’s resignation that the decision to step down was seen as “a blow to the global progressive movement”, noting that his leadership style was both celebrated and critiqued for its symbolic focus on diversity and inclusion.
Or, for the more cynical, politicians who are “woke”.
For voters in Canada and Australia, two economies heavily dependent on resources, the perceived desire for a strong leader—particularly in the alpha male mould—is clearly shaping the electoral map in 2025.
Conservative strategists, rejoicing after Donald Trump’s incredible political comeback to secure the White House for a second time in November 2024, can effortlessly present the progressive centre-left politician as a woke weakling next to the sensible centrist aligned with small business.
This strategy is already being ruthlessly deployed by Canada’s main opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, who has channelled former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott in dismantling a rudderless incumbent—the ironically named Liberal Party of Canada—whose unpopular carbon tax has also earned the ire of the country’s mining sector.
Voters, already angry at an economy where the private sector faces increased cost pressures, have clearly lost patience with governments whose civil service is perceived as woke: more concerned with identity politics, climate change, and pride days while collecting guaranteed pay increases.
In Australia, the resources sector that helped bring down the former Labor Rudd government is already baring its teeth against the Anthony Albanese-led Labor Party, seen by many voters as doing the bidding of trade unions where a theme of overreach on how much workers are paid clearly meeting a wall of businesses saying, ‘enough!’
Canada and Australia go into 2025 as governments spending excessively in a bid to ward off recession, noting that a headline with an ‘R’ can instil fear into any treasurer or finance minister.
The real-world economy, cost of living, and a more uncertain geopolitical environment present a challenge that favours the strongman mould so brutally evident in the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.
While the lurch towards protectionism in the form of tariffs does not lend itself to solving a cost-of-living crisis—where workers clustered around large cities are unlikely to access a house any time soon—those who have lost out over the last decade, and who have not shared in government funding around progressive economic policy, are clearly pushing back.
Despite government incentives to buy electric vehicles, for example, the reality is that the price point remains high, resale value low, and consumers still prefer petrol cars.
Environmentalists may not want to hear such a proclamation, but despite the headline of environmental friendliness, the resource intensity required to build an electric car—in terms of materials—is far greater than for a petrol one.
The employment picture is one of workers simply trying to hang on, particularly on main street.
For progressive political parties, this narrative is akin to electoral kryptonite.
Dan Petrie is Mining.com.au’s Head of Data, a former data editor at Bloomberg LP, analyst at Macquarie Bank and contributing data expert to Google Digital News Academy.
Write to Dan Petrie at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au
