Indonesia is planning to launch the first-phase tender for 30 gigawatts (GW) of solar projects in 2026, which Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) says signals a clear acceleration in the nation’s solar policy.
Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto previously proposed developing 100GW of solar capacity over the coming years, while accelerating the retirement of diesel-fired generation.
The Indonesian Government also plans to shut down around 13GW of diesel-fired capacity and replace it with solar and other non-fossil sources. The policy aims to reduce the dependence of remote islands and weak grid regions on diesel and imported fuel, lowering fiscal subsidies and electricity supply costs.
While diesel capacity can deliver immediate, predictable, 24/7 output, limited only by fuel supplies, solar capacity relies on weather conditions and requires battery storage or hybrid backup to match continuous availability.
At this stage, Indonesia’s 30GW figure is viewed as an indicative first-phase project pipeline and procurement ambition, rather than 30GW of solar additions or immediate module demand in 2026.
If the first 30GW tender starts in 2026, module procurement, financial close, construction, and grid connection are likely to occur in stages.
SMM says the target materially expands Indonesia’s medium- and long-term market potential for modules, inverters, and storage, but the full capacity should not be treated as near-term spot demand.
Bankable equipment demand will come from projects that have been awarded, signed power purchase agreements (PPAs), secured land and interconnection rights, and reached financial close.
Indonesia’s solar industry
This news comes after Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia proposed advancing an initial 17GW of solar projects with supporting energy storage. Lahadalia’s latest announcement raises the first-phase target to 30GW, substantially increasing the government’s near-term development ambition.
SMM reports the increase shows that the 100GW program remains under rapid design and policy coordination. Firm demand will depend on official tender documents that define project locations, lot sizes, development models, PPAs, storage requirements, and grid connection schedules.
At the end of 2025, Indonesia’s cumulative installed solar capacity stood at 1.49GW. On that basis, the 30GW first phase target is about 20 times the existing installed base, while the 100GW ambition is nearly 67 times as large.
SMM says expansion on this scale would affect far more than module supply.
“It would also test the availability of inverters, storage systems, transformers, transmission and distribution infrastructure, land, engineering capacity, financing and long-term operations, and maintenance services,” SMM says.
SMM believes Indonesia’s proposal to launch a first-phase 30GW tender marks a shift in the 100GW solar program from policy ambition toward procurement and implementation.
According to Mordor Intelligence, Indonesia’s renewable energy market size is estimated at 18.4GW in 2026, rising from 15.97GW in 2025. The market volume is projected to reach 37.32GW by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of 15.2% over 2026–2031.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock
