The world’s largest island’s – Greenland – rare earths endowment may appear comparable to China’s on paper. However, gaps remain between geological promise and commercial reality, according to GEM Mining Consulting.
GEM Mining unveiled a brief analysis on Greenland’s growing relevance in the geopolitical debate around critical minerals and why geological potential alone is unlikely to translate into mining development.
The analysis examines Greenland’s mineral endowment in light of recent academic and US Geological Survey data and contrasts it with Alaska as a practical benchmark to show how Arctic social, environmental, and permitting constraints can ultimately determine project outcomes.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Patricio Faúndez, practice leader of economics at GEM, says the comparison rests on two demanding assumptions.
“First, that reported figures are verified to modern reporting standards rather than reflecting conceptual potential; and second, that projects can be permitted, financed, built, and operated in an Arctic environment defined by limited infrastructure and a very small local industrial base,” Faúndez says.
Recent assessments by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) reports that Greenland hosts occurrences of at least 24 of the 34 rare metals and materials included on the EU’s critical raw materials list, as reported.
GEUS says this catalogue spans rare earth elements (REEs) essential for permanent magnets in EVs and wind turbines; graphite, a key component of lithium-ion battery anodes; niobium, tantalum, and zirconium for advanced electronics; platinum group metals (PGMs) vital to catalytic and industrial applications; titanium and molybdenum with roles in aerospace and steel alloys; and base metals such as zinc, copper, nickel and lead in broad industrial use.
According to the US Geological Survey, Greenland’s rare earths reserves is estimated at around 1.5 million tonnes total rare earth oxide.
If the resource numbers reported in previous studies are confirmed, GEM Mining says it would place Greenland’s TREO resource at around 42 million tonnes – placing it just behind China at 44 million tonnes in reserves.
As previously reported, China controls as much as 90% on rare earths separation capacity, alongside its dominance in mine production, which accounts for roughly 70% of the global supply.
Greenland’s commercial reality
While studies cited in GEM Mining’s analysis suggest Greenland could host globally ‘significant’ rare earths resources, the commercial challenge lies in converting those figures into compliant reserves and operating mines.
Around 80% of Greenland is covered in ice, which means exploration has been historically limited.
As of early 2026, mining activity in Greenland remains modest but is expanding. GEUS data notes Greenland has two operational mines – a gold mine in the south and an anorthosite (feldspar) operation near Kangerlussuaq. However, there are several projects advancing into licensing or permitting stages with international support and strategic significance.
For example, the Amitsoq Graphite Project, where in late 2025 Greenland issued a 30-year exploitation licence to GreenRoc Strategic Materials (LSE:GROC) for one of the world’s ‘highest grade’ graphite deposits. This project is backed by the European Raw Materials Alliance and designated a Strategic Project under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act — underlining graphite’s place in energy transition supply chains, as per Reuters.
Another example is Brunswick Exploration (TSX-V:BRW), which recently staked new high-priority lithium targets, known as Clavering and Hudson Land, in Eastern Greenland.
Brunswick says this staking reinforces its position as an active explorer in Greenland and remains the only company in the country exploring for lithium.
The company is planning to visit both areas in Q3 2026, in conjunction with conducting field activities at the Hinks Land Project. The helicopter-supported program is expected to last around two weeks.
A small drilling program will also be carried out at the Nuuk Lithium Project in late Q3 2026, to test the spodumene-bearing pegmatites uncovered during a 2025 field season.
Despite the number of projects advancing into licensing or permitting stages, Faúndez explains that the commercial reality is that Greenland lacks the installed mining and processing capacity needed to translate endowment into reliable rare earths supply.
“Bridging that gap is inherently non-trivial: it requires long lead items, high capital intensity, complex logistics, and the ability to maintain a socially acceptable and technically robust operating model through construction, operations, and ultimately closure,“ he says.
GEM Mining says to anticipate what this could mean in practice, even in a hypothetical scenario in which the US were to acquire Greenland, Alaska – another Arctic region – can serve as a useful benchmark, offering a reference for what to expect as Greenland seeks to advance critical minerals projects.
US President Trump has been seeking immediate negotiations to acquire Greenland for national security reasons, as well as its critical minerals potential.
Faúndez notes that the current environment is “highly uncertain,” and recent experience demonstrates that political decisions can surprise even well-informed analysts.
“Given that the current US administration emphasises deal-making, geopolitical interest could, in principle, both improve viability and raise expectations,” the analyst says.
“However, the most likely outcome is that geopolitics elevates expectations of speed and certainty that ultimately collide with Arctic realities – limited infrastructure, heightened environmental sensitivity, and strong social salience.
“The result is often greater visibility and narrative momentum, but a slower-than-expected conversion into projects that are fully permitted and financeable.”
Ultimately, Greenland’s rare earth endowment underscores the difference between resource potential and commercial reality.
While the island hosts a globally recognised geological inventory, the pathway to production remains constrained by verification requirements, infrastructure limitations, and the challenges of building and operating mines in an Arctic environment.
As GEM Mining makes clear, mineral endowment alone does not always guarantee supply and in Greenland’s case, bridging that gap would require a lot.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Brunswick Exploration, GEUS & iStock
