As US President Donald Trump prepares to this week meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the US continues to accelerate its plan to achieve rare earths independence.
Trump and Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum being held in South Korea on Friday 31 October and Saturday 1 November to try and smooth over trade tensions.
The US plans to implement additional 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US in response to China’s threat to further restrict exports of rare earths – a supply chain it currently controls.
The Asian powerhouse has a virtual monopoly on rare earth separation capacity, of which it controls as much as 90%, alongside its dominance in mine production, which accounts for roughly 70% of global supply.
Brett Hazelden, Managing Director of emerging rare earths producer OD6 Metals (ASX:OD6), says Trump is changing the way governments work with private industry.
“He’s taken politics and business and blurred the lines there, but to some extent what he’s done is he’s allowed governments to invest into companies,” he tells Mining.com.au.
“What that’s doing is reshaping how some governments work and how obviously government and private partnerships can work in an investor scheme as well.”
This led to the US$400 million investment by the US Department of Defense (DoD) in Nevada-headquartered rare earths major MP Materials (NYSE:MP) in July this year in exchange for a 15% stake – a deal that also included an offtake agreement with a set floor price at a premium to current market prices.
Hazelden argues the Australian Government should have followed a similar path and invested in rare earths companies the same way it invested in companies like Qantas during the Covid pandemic.
“The Western world, if they want to have a different path that’s not all roads leading to China, they need to obviously pay a fair price that allows people to make money but also allows people to do the next part of the value chain as well,” he says.
Australia and US forge critical minerals pact
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last week met with Trump in the US to discuss how the two countries could work together on boosting their respective supplies of rare earths and critical minerals.
They reached an agreement that is expected to support $13 billion in production-ready projects in a bid to expand Australia’s mining and processing abilities.
The framework provides for at least $1 billion in financing from each government as well as price-support mechanisms.
Victory Metals (ASX:VTM) CEO Brendan Clark, who has been engaging with the Prime Minister’s Critical Minerals Taskforce, says the historic meeting set out a roadmap for Australia to secure the necessary investment in Australian heavy rare earths projects by the country’s most important ally.
“While our reserves of critical minerals are of immense potential value across the board, the immediate priority must be heavy rare earths, specifically those that, up until now, China has had a virtual monopoly over,” he says.
“We need to show our allies we are ready, willing and able to be the resource partner the world needs.”
From 1 December 2025, China will ban exports of its heavy rare earths if they relate to military use.
Victory recently reported grade improvements in terbium, dysprosium and scandium at its North Stanmore Project. All three of these elements are covered by the planned Chinese export ban because of their importance in military applications.
With Australia well-endowed with heavy rare earths, Clark says the door is open for Australia to leverage its strategic importance as a stable and reliable partner to major global nation customers, such as the US, the UK, Europe and others, particularly for military applications.
“China’s move has galvanised the West into action, and this is Australia’s opportunity to step in to provide our partners with the materials critical to their technology and defence supply chains,” he says.
“Australia has some of the most promising heavy rare earth projects in the world, with significant ratios of these critical strategic defence metals that can help break China’s dominance.”
Victory has appointed Trump’s former Deputy Chief of Staff, Emma Doyle, as a Senior Advisor for US strategic engagement.
Doyle directed core West Wing functions and advised the president and his senior leadership team. She also held senior roles at the White House Office of Management and Budget and in the Office of First Lady Melania Trump.
“With direct White House experience and unparalleled networks across Washington, Emma gives Victory Metals the advantage to ensure our project is front and centre in the US Administration’s critical minerals and defence supply chain agenda,” Clark says.
Low-cost deposits could tilt balance Westward
OD6’s Hazelden believes there is plenty of opportunity for Western countries like the US and Australia to capture a substantial market share.
However, the problem the industry is facing right now is that the projects that are ‘shovel ready’ are expensive in terms of upfront capex and operating costs.
One example is Arafura Rare Earth’s (ASX:ARU) Nolans Project in the Northern Territory, which is a hard rock project with an estimated capital expenditure of US$1.23 billion and annual operating expenditure (opex) of US$43.7 per kilogram of rare earth oxides (REO) or neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr).
By comparison, clay-hosted rare earths deposits generally have a higher percentage of magnet rare earths than hard rock deposits and are lower cost because processing is simpler than for hard rock projects.
Ionic Rare Earths’ (ASX:IXR) Makuutu clay-hosted project in Uganda, for example, is expected to have a capex of US$120 million and an annual opex of US$52.99 per kilogram of REO or NdPr.
Hazelden anticipates OD6’s Splinter Rock Rare Earth Elements (REE) Project in Western Australia will have a capex similar to Makuutu.
OD6 has been in talks with various government agencies in Australia and the US, as well as the major producers like Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) and MP Materials.
MP Materials owns the only operating rare earths mine in North America, while Lynas is building the first rare earths processing facility in North America with financial support from the DoD.
Lynas recently signed a memorandum of understanding to form a partnership with Noveon Magnetics, the only operational US manufacturer of sintered rare earth magnets.
The aim of the partnership is to establish a scalable and domestic US supply chain for rare earth permanent magnets.
OD6 is heading to the 21st International Rare Earths Conference in Kuala Lumpur from 5-7 November to engage further with industry representatives.
“We’ll be having lots of side discussions and continuing those discussions with not just magnet producers but upstream and downstream producers as well,” Hazelden tells this news service.
“So we’re talking to all the right people.”
Industry calls for accelerated development
Allister Caird, Head of Critical Minerals at Locksley Resources (ASX:LKY), tells Mining.com.au the tightening of supply out of China requires immediate action to not only find a solution, but produce it in short order.
“Traditional exploration and production lifecycles are often 10-15 years from discovery to the production of first ore,” he explains.
“The problem at hand requires a significant acceleration of the ‘mine-to-market’ pathway.”
Locksley is preparing to start drilling at the El Campo Prospect, part of its Mojave REE Project, next to MP Materials’ Mountain Pass Mine in California.
The El Campo Prospect is an 860m long interpreted mineralised horizon that has returned rock chip samples grading up to 12.1% total rare earth oxide and NdPr values up to 3.19%.
Caird says that from an American perspective, once a rare earth resource is defined and a processing pathway established, the major remaining hurdles are cost and permitting.
“Both are being addressed by US government and policy makers with fast-track permitting and a range of funding packages designed to facilitate a swift transition away from Chinese reliance,” he says.
“It is reasonable to suggest that the above measures by the US and allies can fully replace China in the near-term, the goal is simply to reduce reliance rather than eliminate it entirely.”
Mark Cooksey, Managing Director of ABx Group (ASX:ABX), tells Mining.com.au global trade policies are illustrating the complexity of global supply chains and the very heavy dependence on a single country.
“This has led to companies and governments in most advanced economies increasing their focus on rare earths supply chains to ensure they can obtain the advanced technologies needed to operate a modern economy,” he says.
“There is already significant mining of rare earth outside of China, but most miners then sell their intermediate product to China.
“The most crucial step to reducing Chinese dominance is to establish more refining, metallisation and magnet manufacture capacity outside of China, who are then customers for rare earth mines outside of China.”
Partnerships emerge as rare earth accelerators
Jacob Deysel, CEO of Critica (ASX:CRI), says every incremental restriction from China raises the strategic risk for manufacturers.
“It is no longer just about security of supply – it’s about resilience of industries central to defence, energy transition and advanced manufacturing,” Deysel tells Mining.com.au.
“The West urgently needs custody of supply, and it is projects with scale, simplicity and speed that will fill this gap.“
Deysel says Critica is advancing its Jupiter Project in Western Australia to be a key project in this space.
Earlier in October, the company applied to become a tier-one partner of the Critical Metals for Critical Industries Cooperative Research Centre.
The collaboration will support hydrometallurgical pilot and process-development programs for the Jupiter Project, which Critica says is one of Australia’s largest clay-hosted rare earth resources.
Deysel says partnerships are essential to expanding the rare earths supply chain outside China.
“The scale of capital and technical risk in rare earths means no single junior can deliver alone,” he says.
“Partnerships with strategic offtakers, government support and collaborative R&D are the accelerators of speed and credibility.
“We have seen in other industries that incentive pricing is required given the head start China has, and we see governments now stepping up to the plate.”
In early September, Critica appointed GAVAQ in Hanoi to design, construct and operate a closed-circuit pilot-scale beneficiation plant.
The program will process a 3,000 kilogram run-of-mine bulk sample through a flowsheet incorporating magnetic separation and flotation to produce high-grade rare earth intermediate concentrate for downstream testwork and Scoping Study inputs.
The pilot will deliver bulk concentrate to ANSTO and Minutech for leach optimisation and hydrometallurgy work.
Critica this week demonstrated it can produce a high-grade mixed rare earth product averaging 84% total rare earth oxide.
“This first unoptimised mixed rare earth product is a pivotal step for Critica,” Deysel says. “Our metallurgical results confirm that beneficiated Jupiter concentrate can be successfully leached using conventional, scalable processing to produce a high-grade oxide product.”
New tech promises cleaner, faster processing
ABx previously secured a memorandum of understanding to supply Ucore Rare Metals (TSX-V:UCU) in Canada with a mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) from its Deep Leads Project in Northern Tasmania.
Nova Scotia-based Ucore is transitioning from pilot to full scale commercialisation of its patent-pending RapidSX rare earths separation technology.
The RapidSX technology uses the same proven chemistry as solvent extraction, but requires 70% less floor space, lower capital and operating expenditure, a smaller physical and environmental footprint, and is up to seven times faster throughput, according to Ucore.
In mid-October, testwork undertaken by Australia’s Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation demonstrated that over 98% of rare earths from the Deep Leads Project in northern Tasmania could be retained to produce a MREC sample.
The testwork showed even higher retention rates for key permanent magnet rare earths.
ABx expects to produce its first MREC sample from the Deep Leads Project before the end of this year.
Ark Mines (ASX:AHK), meanwhile, is advancing the Sandy Mitchell Project in Queensland.
The company describes it as the only inland surface-expressed placer deposit (in sands) to host rare earths that is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.
The rare earths are contained in essentially a large sand pit that allows simple extraction via gravity processing, which makes development even lower cost than clay-hosted deposits, according to Ark Mines.
Sandy Mitchell currently hosts a measured resource estimate of 71.8 million tonnes @ 1,732.7 parts per million (ppm) monazite equivalent, which is only 4.5% of the existing exploration target of 1.3-1.5 billion tonnes @ 1,250-1,490ppm.
In mid-October, the company was granted environmental approval for the project which paves the way for the mining lease to be issued.
Government backing powers Ark Mines forward
A couple of months earlier, Ark Mines received a $4.5 million cash injection from state government-owned Queensland Investment Corporation under the Critical Minerals and Battery Technology Fund.
The investment is aimed at fast tracking development of the Sandy Mitchell Project, where Ark Mines has just completed a 219-hole, 2,324m resource expansion drilling program.
Managing Director Ben Emery says concurrently, project development at Sandy Mitchell continues to advance on schedule.
“Along with pending drill assay results, Ark is working closely with our specialist consultants, IHC Mining, to deliver a detailed metallurgical improvement program which is expected to further support project economics in the forthcoming Prefeasibility Study,” he says.
Ark Mines is also in talks with potential offtakers to supply high-quality monazite concentrate in Australia, Korea and the US. Production is slated for late 2027.
Over in Canada, Neotech Metals (CSE:NTMC) recently began a 10,000m drilling program at its flagship Hecla Kilmer REE-Niobium Project in Northern Ontario.
The company says the project is positioned to disrupt the REE supply chain, having demonstrated that the apatite mineralisation is highly leachable under low temperature and low acid conditions.
“The Hecla-Kilmer Project represents a unique opportunity — its rare earth mineralisation is hosted in apatite, a setting that may offer significant advantages in processing efficiency and scalability compared to many existing projects,” CEO Reagan Glazier says.
Over 96% of the REEs were successfully leached into solution, which Neotech says demonstrates that apatite-hosted REEs could represent the first viable, domestically produced source in North America because of their low-impact, rapid-leach characteristics.
Neotech is continuing with metallurgical and process testing, including optimisation of beneficiation, leaching and pilot plant design for bulk sample testing.
The drilling program currently underway is centred on infill definition and proximal extensional targets within the Pike Zone, with the aim of defining a maiden resource in 2026 and advancing towards a Preliminary Economic Assessment.
Write to Angela East at Mining.com.au
Images: MP Materials, iStock, Locksley Resources, Critica, Ark Mines
