If 2024 is notable for anything, it might be for its status as ‘the biggest election year in history’. By the end of December, almost half the world’s population — some four billion people from more than 100 countries — will have voted in national elections.
It kicked off in early January with Bangladesh and will wrap up on 27 December in Chad. But when it comes to matters of mining — exploration, development, production, regulatory measures — there are some jurisdictions worth paying closer attention to.
Russia
One of the first big ones was the Russian election in March, in which incumbent candidate Vladimir Putin swept his way to a fifth term after securing 88% of the vote — the highest percentage in a presidential election in post-Soviet Russia. He was inaugurated on 7 May.
According to Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the election was “not free, fair, inclusive, or credible”, and occurred under Moscow’s longstanding crackdown on the freedom of expression, opposition figures, civil society, independent journalists, human rights defenders, and anti-war voices.
“These elections were held just weeks after the tragic death of Russia’s most prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny, for which we hold the Russian Government responsible,” the department’s website notes.
The win means 71-year-old Putin has embarked on a new six-year term, which would see him overtake Josef Stalin to become Russia’s longest-serving leader in more than 200 years if he completes it.
In a victory speech, Putin said the result should send a message to the West that its leaders will have to reckon with an emboldened Russia — whether at war or in peace — for years to come.
“We have many tasks ahead,” Putin said. “But when we are consolidated — no matter who wants to intimidate us, suppress us — nobody has ever succeeded in history, they have not succeeded now, and they will not succeed ever in the future.”
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, the European Union, and other Western countries introduced or significantly expanded sanctions covering Putin, other government officials, and some Russian citizens in general.
A number of Russian banks, for example, were banned from using the SWIFT international payments system, while the Russian Central Bank’s assets — including US$630 billion in foreign-exchange reserves — were frozen.
Those sanctions were expanded earlier this year, when the US and the UK jointly announced a ban on imports of aluminium, copper, and nickel from Russia. As a result, Moscow has been redirecting its metals production to China, with aluminium producer Rusal noting its revenue from exports to China almost doubled in 2023.
India
The biggest this year — at least by the number of voters — was India’s seven-phase general election from April to June, which saw around 642 million people cast their ballots at more than a million polling stations across the country.
Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term as head of India’s ruling coalition, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its outright majority for the first time in a decade.
The results showed that Modi — for the first time since he rose to power in 2014 — would have to rely on at least three disparate regional parties for political support, even as their loyalty has waned over the years. Political analysts said at the time that such a situation could introduce some policymaking uncertainty.
Still, Modi promised to make some “big decisions”, listing electronics, semiconductors and defence manufacturing, renewables, and farming as areas of special focus during his third term.
“The key question is whether BJP can retain single party majority,” Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Global Wealth in Singapore, told Reuters. “If not, then would its coalition be able to deliver economic development, particularly infrastructure?”
Mexico
Next up was Mexico, which in June elected leftist Claudia Sheinbaum to replace current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador from 1 October.
Between 2000 and 2006, Sheinbaum was secretary of the environment under López Obrador during his time as head of the government of Mexico City. She then acted as mayor of the Tlalpan borough from 2015 to 2017, and took over as head of Mexico City in 2018 with a promise to curb crime and enforce zoning laws.
A scientist by profession, Sheinbaum earned a Doctor of Philosophy in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and has since authored more than 100 articles and two books on energy, the environment, and sustainable development.
However, her pending role as leader of Mexico is expected to advance a ban on open-pit mining in the country. López Obrador’s administration has opposed the method of extraction for its perceived outsized environmental impact.
A committee in Mexico’s lower house of Congress passed two constitutional reforms last month that would prohibit open-pit mining and fracking.
The proposals would also prevent the exploitation of water in areas of scarcity — with the exception of extraction in populated areas for domestic use — and will be taken up for discussion by the full lower house when lawmakers return to session this month.
United Kingdom
Following the United Kingdom’s general election in July, ‘landslide’ seemed to be the dominant assessment. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party took a total of 412 seats, compared to the Conservative’s 121, giving the party a substantial majority as it formed a government for the first time in 14 years.
According to Economics Observatory, Labour’s victory was largely attributed to voter dissatisfaction with the Conservative’s handling of the cost of living crisis and internal party conflicts, suggesting the result was more anti-Conservative than it was pro-Labour.
The Labour Party’s manifesto, ‘Change’, was released in June and focused on economic growth, planning system reforms, infrastructure, clean energy, healthcare, education, childcare, and strengthened workers’ rights.
However, Economics Observatory noted that Labour had faced its own challenges in the election, with a number of newly elected cabinet ministers, and even Starmer himself, losing a share of the vote in their constituencies.
“Looking ahead, the future of politics in the UK is likely to be shaped by how effectively Labour can address the many pressing issues it faces as a new government, as well as how the Conservatives reorganise and respond to this historic defeat,” the think tank wrote.
International Seabed Authority
Certainly one of the more interesting elections was that of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) — the intergovernmental body tasked with controlling the development of mineral-related operations on the international seabed.
In early August, the ISA announced the election of Brazilian oceanographer Leticia Carvalho as its new Secretary-General for a 2025 to 2028 term, replacing Michael Lodge.
Carvalho studied oceanography at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and obtained a Masters degree in sustainable development from the University of Brasilia. She began working at Brazil’s Ministry of Environment in 2001, and in 2013 was appointed Director of Environmental Quality in Industry. Carvalho has also worked for the United Nations Environment Program in Latin America and the Caribbean.
In spite of its mandate, the ISA has received criticism in recent years for its lack of transparency, conflicts of interest, and promotion of a deep sea mining industry.
In 2022, The Guardian reported that the ISA had failed to renew the contract for Earth Negotiations Bulletin, which covered past proceedings to maintain an independent record of the ISA, supposedly as the result of budget cuts.
That same year, The Los Angeles Times reported on Lodge’s appearance in a promotional video for a deep sea mining company, drawing objections from scientists and members of his staff.
Perhaps with that in mind, Carvalho says the ISA “has enormous room for improvement in management and governance”.
“In my view, rebuilding trust is the fundamental aspect,” she said in an interview with Mongabay. “Because the creation of the Law of the Sea envisaged the multisectoral use of the common space of the ocean.”
In a separate interview with Foreign Policy, Carvalho said this involves pushing for more independent scientific research, rather than what she sees as a reliance on data collected by mining contractors.
“If you are a contractor, of course you have a particular interest, and probably you will focus your research on that element of your interest,” she said.
“The source of information matters. I’m not saying that the information there is not good. What I’m saying is (it’s) not enough for the decision-making.
“I would say, easily at this point in time, that we don’t have all the information that is needed in terms of the understanding of the functionality of the ecosystems in the deep sea.”
The ones to come
Though there are fewer elections over the next 12 months, they’re arguably some of the most important, and worthy of a more detailed assessment in Part Two of this series.
There’s the Trump-Harris presidential election in the US in early November, which will be very closely watched indeed.
Of course, 2025 is set to be a much quieter year election-wise, but Australia’s proposed vote in September and Canada’s in October — both of which are major mining jurisdictions — could have far-reaching implications for the world of mining.
Write to Oliver Gray at Mining.com.au
Images: Unsplash, CNN
