“Sun is shining, the weather is sweet…”
Bob Marley’s iconic lyrics feel laced with irony this June quarter. Yes, the sun is shining on gold, at least in terms of price, with the precious metal continuously breaking records.
But for junior explorers, the weather hasn’t exactly been sweet.
Far from the beaches of Jamaica, gold has danced to its own rhythm in Q2 2025, with spot prices surging to $5,041.50 per ounce at the beginning of the quarter, as previously reported, buoyed by geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary signals.
JP Morgan reports gold prices have rallied significantly this year, climbing as much as 30% year-to-date in April, surpassing its previous forecasts.
At the time of writing, gold sat at $5,037.68 per ounce, as reported by the ABC Bullion on 1 July.
As Canaccord Genuity Mining Analyst Tim McCormack puts it, these prices are a “happy place” for everyone to make good money. But not everyone has been invited to the party.
Marco Roque, CEO of Cassiar Gold (TSX-V:GLDC), describes a deeper cultural shift that has left junior gold companies in its own party.
“For 15 years, there has been a cultural war against natural resources,” Roque tells this news service.
“It hasn’t been a cool or trendy trade to invest in natural resources companies in general.”
Tom Winmill, Midas Discovery Fund Portfolio Manager describes the gold industry this past quarter as “once bitten, twice shy”.
“Instead of euphoria, most investors and mining companies appear to be taking cautious approaches due to past experiences during spiking gold prices,” Winmill tells this news service.
“Investors seem skeptical of currently historically super cheap valuations and stock trading volumes are low.”
Add to that the rise of crypto, a surge in retail investors over traditional fund managers, and ESG investing becoming mainstream — it’s clear the junior gold sector is navigating more than just market cycles.
This disconnect is reflected in the share performance of junior explorers, such as Hamelin Gold (ASX:HMG), which saw its share price move just a few cents across the quarter, despite peaking at $0.099 on 14 May.
Or Renforth Resources (CSE:RFR), whose share price has sat motionless since late April 2025.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Hamelin Gold Managing Director Peter Bewick says junior explorers “are yet to have their moment in the sun”.
Meanwhile, Renforth CEO Nicole Brewster puts it more simply when she says “the love hasn’t come to our level yet”.
Is this love?
While gold continues to shine, the exploration sector is feeling the chill, as Brewster argues that there is “virtually no investor interest in the junior market right now”.
North Stawell Minerals (ASX:NSM) Executive Director Campbell Olsen highlights a disconnect between soaring demand and stagnant discovery.
“One of the reasons gold prices are so buoyant is that there have been fewer large-scale tier one discoveries made in the past decade or two and all projects take extended periods of time to move from exploration through development to production,” Olsen says.
Data from S&P Global shows that only 26 new gold discoveries occurred in the decade to 2023 — while there were none in 2023. Overall, just 2.9 billion ounces of gold have been identified across 350 deposits since 1990.
As Roque puts it, “most producers have been depleting resources and reserves, and they’ll need to replace them.”
As Mining.com.au previously reported, only around 216,265 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout its entire history on Earth. To put that amount of mined gold into perspective or a single cube, the World Gold Council says it would measure 22m on each side.
S&P Global says there has been a slow decline since 2006, with the number of new discoveries and the amount of contained gold trending downwards.
“The decline possibly reflects a shift in exploration spending from riskier early stage projects to focus on established assets,” S&P Global says.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), mineral exploration fell by 2.4%, totalling $933 million, during the March 2025 quarter. Gold expenditure totalled $314.3 million in Q4 2024, in comparison to $283.6 million in Q1 2025.
In terms of discoveries, ABS reports new deposits exploration also decreased by 20.2%. In Q4 2024, expenditure on new deposits totalled $269.3 million compared to $214.9 million in Q1 2025.
Brewster warns that if juniors are unable to find gold discoveries or are unable to secure funding to explore, the gold market is “going to have a problem”.
“We exist to be eaten by bigger fish. Our role is really to discover”
“It might take a wee bit for that problem to rear its ugly head, but it will rear its ugly head — because we’re the minnow in the fish pond, if that,” she says.
“We exist to be eaten by bigger fish. Our role is really to discover.”
Roger Mason, CEO of Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY), says explorers are critical in sustaining the broader gold industry’s growth outlook.
“Major producers are grappling with declining reserve bases and a scarcity of new large-scale discoveries,” Mason tells this news service. “This makes exploration success not only valuable … it’s essential.”
Still, hope glimmers in the junior space, as Bewick says a new discovery by a junior explorer will provide a confidence boost to the industry.
“It might be the catalyst for a boom for the junior gold industry,” he says.
Could you be loved?
Just as Marley chants ‘Could you be loved’, the gold sector reflects this duality as producers bask in the sun, while juniors grind through the seasons.
Bewick observes that “eye watering” valuations are being placed on gold producers, with corporate activity at the top end of town being “phenomenal”.
“When multi-billion dollar transactions are becoming the norm it tells you we are in a very hot gold market for the producers,” he says.
Cassiar Gold’s Roque echoes this sentiment, highlighting that gold producer valuations have risen substantially alongside the gold price.
“The equities are moving in good returns — 50 to 100% in most cases for the producers,” Roque tells this news service.
“When multi-billion dollar transactions are becoming the norm it tells you we are in a very hot gold market for the producers”
Newmont (ASX:NEM) exemplifies this trend, with its share price climbing from $77.11 at the end of Q1 to $87.31, as of 1 July 2025.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Rua Gold (TSX-V:RUA) CEO Robert Eckford believes the fundamentals of the gold industry have never been better.
“The producers are sitting on piles of cash. Mid-size market cap companies are now issuing dividends or doing stock buybacks for the first time,” he says.
This financial strength is fuelling production activity. For example, mid-tier miner Borealis Mining (TSX-V:BOGO) — which has a market capitalisation of C$76 million — began crushing its 327,000-tonne mineralised stockpile at its namesake gold project in Nevada, US.
CEO Kelly Malcom describes it as a “1980s US gold story” — quick production on less than 1 million ounce deposits that deliver steady ounces at manageable costs.
“We’re not looking for world-class 10-million-ounce gold deposits, we’re looking for sub 1 million ounces that can do 50,000 ounces a year,” Malcolm says.
However, even gold producers have been facing challenges this past quarter. Supply chain delays, rising wages and increased contractor costs are impacting margins. Malcolm notes that while diesel prices have decreased, personnel costs have risen.
“The big ticket items have definitely increased quite substantially, but they haven’t increased to the point that it has outweighed the commodity price yet,” he says.
Midas Discovery Fund’s Winmill adds to this argument saying that corporate costs often rise with warrant conversion, compensation cash and stock bonuses, as well as hiring expenses.
“Mining costs are increasing with higher royalty payments and similar gold indexed costs. Cost costs are rising as miners start targeting low-grade ore as it becomes economic due to higher gold prices,” he says.
Canaccord’s Tim McCormack agrees to an extent, noting that inflation in the gold sector has plateaued at an “okay level,” but risks remain.
“The risk, the way I think about it, is that you do get an increase in the all-in sustaining cost because you might have a higher strip ratio or you’re mining a lower grade underground or whatever it is,” McCormack notes.
No gold, no cry?
Although gold mining companies are experiencing hardships, hope and strength still lies with junior explorers continuing to persevere.
“The explorers haven’t seen the interest just yet, but that will just be a matter of time and it’ll be interesting to see how things look at the end of the year,” Rua Gold’s Eckford says.
North Stawell Minerals’ Olsen says there is an opportunity for gold projects in Australia to be advanced.
“The price of gold, at record levels, means there is excellent profit margins for good projects to be advanced,” Olsen tells this news service.
“Gold is the commodity to be in right now. After a few years of battery metals dominating the junior market there is a clear renewed interest in gold.”
Opawica Exploration (TSX-V:OPW) CEO Blake Morgan agrees as he has seen a consistent increased interest in gold since the beginning of 2025.
“With uncertainty around the globe I think it’s just getting started,” Morgan says.
“We are now, also, seeing more capital flow into the gold market giving the chance for more discoveries and exploration.”
As in reggae music, the gold mining industry thrives on rhythm, resilience, and harmony. While producers are leading the charge, juniors are humming along — not quite One Love, but perhaps Three Little Birds.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Cassiar, Antipa & North Stawell
