Minority government, the argument goes, leads to instability and weak leadership where recent history in this regard tends to coalesce around the Julia Gillard-led government from 2010 to 2013.
Prior to Gillard’s ascension to the Prime Ministership, she had been deputy to Kevin Rudd, a media savvy former diplomat who led the Australian Labor Party to victory in 2007 after 12 years of Coalition government and promising a suite of policy initiatives around tax, climate, energy, technology and to help working families.
The mythical ‘working family’ is an all powerful voting bloc both major parties tend to fantasise about in pursuit of the treasury benches of the Commonwealth of Australia.
Rudd and his treasurer, Wayne Swan, were lauded for their handling of Australia’s response to the global financial crisis in 2008 with Labor set for a golden period in office.
The idea of minor parties ever succeeding becoming even more remote with the visage of strong leadership on display and Gillard’s path to the top job being at least two terms away.
However, in wanting to be etched into the pages of history of great reformers, Rudd announced a mining super profits tax that enraged industry, walked away from his climate crusade and made enemies with a large cohort of his caucus colleagues.
Reform for the major parties starts with burning all available political capital (code for ‘what the voters will tolerate’).
For the Rudd Labor government, the party mood soon soured as picking fights and whittling away public support was compounded by the opposition who had suffered electoral defeat two years earlier, electing Tony Abbott, a former cabinet minister, Rhode Scholar and Oxford graduate with a boxing blue, as leader.
Abbott, often described as a political animal by his opponents, demonstrated a level of discipline and work ethic that not only inspired his own party but started impacting the government.
With ambition around aspiration soon coming apart, Abbott set about destroying the Labor government and following a party-room ballot, Rudd resigned and Gillard became leader, quickly calling an election to capitalise on the leadership bounce.
While Gillard moved quickly to renegotiate with the mining industry, brand Labor was badly damaged in Western Australia and Queensland in particular, meaning Labor strongholds in the cities were the proverbial last line of defence for government that had once been incredibly popular.
Abbott, while popular among conservatives could not garner broader support to win the poll that year but surprised many with his campaigning, reducing Labor’s majority to minority meaning it had to rely on two independents once aligned with the conservatives to form government.
So what happens when governments compromise?
The media narrative at the time portrayed chaos and dysfunction but the Gillard government was one of the most legislatively productive in recent history, passing over 500 bills, including landmark reforms like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and a price on carbon.
The National Broadband and the role of infrastructure was a significant policy talking point that emerged during this period but ultimately was overshadowed by personality conflicts.
Then Prime Minister Gillard in the 2010-2013 period was not only dealing with an energised opposition leader in Abbott, who almost pulled off the most miraculous of election victories, but an embittered Rudd who become foreign minister only to resign to challenge for his old job back 18 months later.
Rudd’s presence in the parliament all but ensured nervous Labor Party MPs reading poor polling data would eventually come back to him in a bid to stop the ‘Abbott-lanche’ threatening Labor seats, and in 2013, three months before the election that year, Rudd returned.
The 43rd Parliament of Australia that observed a minority government had been dominated by dysfunction not by independents but by the government itself.
Removing the price on carbon has not fixed Australia’s climate policy and while the NDIS is providing a fiscal headache in terms of cost, it is a program Australians have embraced.
the media narrative of calm sensible government was the vindication the Liberal Party led by Abbott claimed but soon gave upon themselves.
Abbott lasted two years before being replaced by Malcolm Turnbull in 2015 who was ousted by his party less then three years later.
In truth minority government might be exactly what this country needs—especially in an era where the two major parties now attract barely two-thirds of the national vote.
As voter support fragments, Australians are clearly looking for alternatives—independents and minor parties who represent local issues, fresh ideas, and genuine accountability.
The need for reform is critical and highlights some uncomfortable truths.
For years, both Labor and the Coalition have danced around the hard questions—how to sustainably broaden the tax base, whether to adjust the GST, or deal with generous concessions on superannuation and negative gearing.
Majority governments tend to avoid controversy.
But in a minority parliament, where independents hold the balance of power, there’s a greater chance of forging reform through genuine debate, not party-line obedience.
The same applies to industrial relations where a Labor party will only address union thuggery when it is humiliated to do so, while the Coalition noting its voter appeal to older Australia is reluctant to wind back tax concession that overly generous.
Minority government doesn’t mean deadlock — policy must be shaped by compromise.
Even the strained relationship between the Commonwealth and the states could benefit.
A minority federal government could conceivably drive better outcome for state and federal relations, noting the disputes that often take place on party lines have become a major turnoff for voters.
Accountability is more like to be driven by better process.
A parliament that rewards cooperation over conflict at a time when voters are increasingly disillusioned with the major parties might be exactly what Australia needs.
Dan Petrie is Mining.com.au’s Head of Data, a former data editor at Bloomberg LP, analyst at Macquarie Bank and contributing data expert to Google Digital News Academy.
Write to Dan Petrie at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au & Stock
