A new report by the Hamm Institute for American Energy outlines the strategic vulnerabilities in the global fertiliser system exposed by the war in the Middle East.
The report, The Strategic Role of Fertiliser in US Economic Security, is authored by Robert J. Johnston, fellow and director for energy and natural resources at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, and Kruthika Anastasia Bala, principal at Resources Now. The pair are long-time collaborators who work across commodities, resource flows, geopolitics, and more.
The authors note that, prior to the start of the conflict, around one-third of all globally traded urea, a nitrogen fertiliser, and half of seaborne sulphur travelled through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure and slowdown of shipping through the waterway since the start of the war has greatly impacted the flow of these commodities.
Following the start of the war, resource flows fell close to zero, and China tightened its controls on fertiliser exports. These developments impacted the availability of fertiliser products across the West, spurring a security crisis across nitrogen fertiliser supply and sulphur availability for phosphate production.
This crisis comes as fertiliser becomes ever more strategic, particularly across economic security.
“The conditions governing fertiliser availability connect agriculture with energy, mineral supply, industrial processing, trade policy, and bulk transportation,” the authors write.
“Nitrogen production depends heavily on natural gas. Phosphate fertiliser requires sulphur and chemical processing in addition to phosphate rock. Potash supply is highly concentrated outside the US. All three depend on transportation systems capable of moving large volumes at relatively low cost.”
In the US specifically, the government is increasingly focused on domestic energy, mineral production, and processing for critical minerals, with both phosphate and potash included in the final 2025 critical minerals list.
Fertiliser, as with most critical minerals, cannot be solely dependent on a single source of supply and requires a broader system of collaboration and strategic partnerships to ensure that communities are able to access what they need.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) notes that potash, fixed nitrogen, and soluble phosphorus are essential agricultural fertilisers. Both potash and phosphorus are mined products, while fixed nitrogen is produced from the atmosphere via industrial processes.
For junior explorers and emerging producers, this systemic vulnerability represents both a challenge and a market opportunity. As Western governments seek to derisk fertiliser supply chains, junior mining companies targeting potash and phosphate assets are stepping into the spotlight, demonstrating the impact of new lines of production.
Aguia builds Brazil’s domestic phosphate supply
Aguia Resources (ASX:AGR) commenced production and reported first sales in June for Pampafós, its domestic Brazilian phosphate product.
The Três Estradas Phosphate Project has a potential mine life of 18 years, based on its proven and probable reserves of 5.02 million tonnes (Mt) @ 8.8% phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5). The project has a total JORC resource of 105Mt.
Aguia is now planning to reassess the Lucena Phosphate Project, also in Brazil, while awaiting licence extensions from the National Mining Agency, as previously reported.
The company drilled Lucena from 2011–12, announcing a JORC inferred mineral resource of 55Mt at 6.42% P2O5 and a preliminary pit design with a 3% cut-off grade.
The company plans to add Lucena to its development portfolio as it continues to increase Pampafós sales and strengthen its operations at Três Estradas.
Brazil is ramping up its focus on domestic fertiliser production, with the Federal Senate recently approving a R$10 billion ($2.76 billion) fertiliser incentive scheme to reduce dependence on imported fertilisers with requirements for onshore sourcing.
This local policy push mirrors the broader global drive toward critical minerals supply chain security, positioning Aguia to capture immediate market share in Brazil.
Nevada Organic Phosphate targets US supply gaps
Nevada Organic Phosphate (CSE:NOP) is developing an organic raw rock phosphate product from the Murdock Mountain project in Nevada, US.
The project spans 7,824 acres and has four Bureau of Land Management applications in place. The initial permit area is believed to hold a potential exploration target of 10–46Mt, ranging in grade from 3–15% P2O5, based on an average thickness of 3.5m and a specific gravity of 2.6.
Nevada Organic’s phosphate product is intended for direct application of raw rock phosphate, with no processing required to remove impurities or upgrade the quality of the rock.
The company is positioning itself as a unique organic option within the US fertiliser industry, noting that almost all other phosphate rock produced in the US is produced by vertically integrated fertiliser and phosphorus producers, with most produced as a beneficiated product.
Nevada Organic Phosphate’s direct-application model aligns with the US’s push for domestic critical minerals production. The model provides a streamlined domestic alternative that could help reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and address associated bottlenecks.
As geopolitical volatility continues to expose structural weaknesses in global supply chains, the transition toward secure, localised, and sustainable fertiliser inputs is not just an agricultural necessity, but a cornerstone of long-term economic and national security.
Write to Amy Rotman at Mining.com.au
Main image: Unsplash
