The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has launched its Australian Gas and LNG Tracker, an interactive data tool enabling users to analyse liquefied natural gas flows into and out of the country.
Using data compiled from a range of authoritative sources, the tracker allows users to visualise Australia’s LNG infrastructure, demand, and capacity, as well as export flows.
Data is pulled from sources including Kpler and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), along with IEEFA’s own analysis. IEEFA gas analysts will update the tracker every six months.
Current tracker data shows that most of the gas produced in Australia is utilised by the LNG export sector. It also highlights that in 2024, Australia’s largest LNG export markets were China (33%), Japan (32%), South Korea (15%) and Taiwan (10%), with all other countries accounting for about 9% of exports.
Notably, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan accounted for 90% of Australia’s total LNG exports, highlighting the sector’s reliance on a few key markets.
IEEFA’s Australian Gas and LNG Tracker also shows at a national level, utilisation of Australia’s LNG export facilities has been high – above 90% between 2021 and 2024. This is despite relatively low utilisation at the Gladstone LNG plant and Prelude floating LNG facility off Western Australia.
High utilisation largely reflects strong LNG spot export volumes topping up volumes exported to meet long-term contracts.
The data also shows that since 2013, the share of Australian LNG exported into spot markets (uncontracted), has grown considerably, making up 25% of total exports in 2024, contributing to the imbalance between exports and domestic Australian gas supply.
Joshua Runciman, Lead Analyst, Australian Gas at IEEFA, says Japan has historically been Australia’s largest LNG export market, but last year it was surpassed by China, which had dramatic import growth over the past decade.
“Australia’s LNG exports to China increased by 8% in 2024 following a 10% increase in 2023 and a 31% decrease in 2022. This compares with 6% and 10% decreases in exports to Japan in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Exports to South Korea and Taiwan increased by 12% and 1% respectively in 2024, partly offset by a 14% fall in supply to other markets,” he says.
It is expected that Australia’s contracted LNG volumes will fall considerably over the next 10 years. Runciman says without new LNG contracts, Australian LNG exporters will either be exposed to volatile LNG spot prices or reduced utilisation of their export facilities, which could potentially undermine LNG project financial returns.
Australia’s LNG contract volumes will remain relatively stable to 2030 and then decline to 2040. Crucially, the expiry of these contracts coincides with forecast supply shortages in Australia, which may allow for additional domestic supply if LNG exporters are willing to see lower LNG plant utilisation.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: IEEFA & Santos
