The Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA) says the resources and energy sector will need fewer workers, despite having its largest-ever project pipeline.
AREEA’s Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast 2026–2031 report indicates that 16 more major projects are underway than a year ago, despite a decline in workforce demand.
The report identifies 112 major mining projects across Australia, representing at least $143.1 billion in published capital investment. However, these projects are forecast to require just 19,549 additional operational workers.
The forecast workforce requirement is down 12% year-on-year, a decline of 2,730 employees. It is also more than 30% below the 28,260 workers forecast in 2023, even as the number of projects continues to rise.
AREEA CEO Steve Knott says the decline in workforce demand reflects a changing industry, despite the strength of the broader resources project pipeline.
“Australia’s resources and energy pipeline is as healthy as it has ever been — more projects than at any point in this series, and capital investment among the highest we have recorded,” Knott says.
“But more and more of that investment is about sustaining existing operations and keeping existing workers in jobs as older mines and gas fields run down, rather than adding new roles. That has real value in its own right, but it means workforce growth is slowing markedly.”
A growing pipeline with fewer opportunities
AREEA reports that the 112 projects comprise 69 new developments, expected to generate 15,900 of the 19,549 forecast roles. A further 32 expansions are expected to add around 1,800 jobs, while 11 project reactivations will contribute another 1,900.
Of the 112 projects, 24 are classified as continuity developments and are not expected to generate net additional jobs. Speaking to Mining.com.au, Knott says 23 are expansions and one is a new project.
“All three categories grew: new projects from 62 to 69, expansions from 27 to 32, and reactivations from seven to 11,” Knott tells this news service.
“Underneath that, the list turned over substantially. This year 34 projects were added, while others came off. Eight left because they’ve moved into production, and the rest because they stalled, were dropped, or were merged.”
Knott says the additions include projects that have progressed far enough to meet AREEA’s “committed or likely to proceed” criteria, as well as developments identified through a broader search process this year.
Gold and copper account for much of the growth in the project pipeline, with gold projects increasing from 16 to 22 and copper projects rising from nine to 16.
Gold projects will require 4,210 workers, while copper projects will require 2,684 workers. Critical minerals and rare earths projects contribute to 11 of the projects and 2,570 workers, meanwhile there are 16 oil and gas projects that are forecast to need 1,822 new operating roles.
The forecast for roles in oil and gas projects is down from the 2,854 roles reported last year.
Knott says these updated figures will put a premium on finding the next generation of mines.
“If the only way to grow this workforce is to find and build new deposits, then governments have to back that pipeline from the very start,” Knott says.
“Exploration is lifting on the back of strong gold and copper prices, but it can take a decade or more for a discovery to become a mine.
“If Canberra and the states want resource jobs in the 2030s, they need to keep exploration incentives in place and make sure approvals can turn discoveries into projects.”
No discoveries, no future jobs
Recently in Australia, the exploration industry has lost numerous avenues that support and advance mineral exploration to drive new discoveries.
A key loss for the exploration industry was the closing of the Junior Minerals Exploration Incentive (JMEI).
The JMEI was established in 2017 and supported $404 million in greenfield mineral exploration before expiring in June 2025.
Industry voices, such as the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC), have been advocating for the return of the program, with CEO Warren Pearce stating JMEI is an “investment in Australia’s future”.
“Attracting investment in mineral exploration is always challenging, but it is essential for Australia to keep exploring and making the discoveries that turn into new mines, and to keep our country prosperous,” Pearce says.
In April of this year, the opposing government promised to commit $100 million to continue the JMEI over a four-year period, after the current government let the incentive expire.
Knott tells Mining.com.au that the workforce forecast is not a measure of exploration activity but covers projects well beyond that stage. However, he says exploration is “where the pipeline beyond 2031 comes from”.
“Going from discovery to production routinely takes a decade or more,” Knott says.
“Letting the JMEI lapse removes support at the riskiest, hardest-to-fund end of the cycle. The workforce cost won’t show up for years, and by then it’s too late to fix.
“On approvals, the near-term risk is speed. Most of these jobs land from 2028, and the new Commonwealth regime’s streamlined pathway is closed to coal and gas projects, which carry the majority of the capital.”
Where have the workers gone?
AREEA attributes the decline in forecast workforce demand to three main factors: 24 projects expected to generate no net new jobs, the energy sector becoming “extraordinarily” capital-intensive, and projects transitioning into production.
Additionally, many projects included in previous forecasts have either entered production, meaning the associated jobs are already established, or stalled.
“There is a structural element,” Knott explains.
“Every new role now sits behind about $7.3 million of capital, up from $5.8 million a year ago. Australia is investing more and getting fewer net new jobs for it.”
In terms of this lower workforce forecast, Knott says a more productive and less labour-intensive industry is in play, along with not enough development of new mines to support long-term employment growth.
“Higher productivity and capital intensity are real, and that’s a strength. Our modelling assumes it,” Knott adds.
“But the bigger issue is timing, not the number of projects. Only about 3,200 of these roles arrive by the end of 2027, and around 15,000 land across 2028–30.
“With direct employment already 4.9% below its February 2025 record, the question is how quickly these projects get through approvals and into production. It’s also whether the training and migration settings are in place to fill roles that take years to build.”
Training is essential for entering and progressing within the mining industry, where workers may face hazards associated with heavy machinery and underground operations.
Some roles require company-sponsored certification programs, apprenticeships, or on-the-job training.
In the mining industry, on-the-job training can often last between several weeks and up to 12 months, depending on the complexity of the role.
Mining giants, such as BHP Group (ASX:BHP), offer four-year apprenticeship programs to get new employees trained and into the industry across numerous roles.
BHP’s apprenticeship program offers paid, full-time employment, on-the-job training, and a strong foundation for a mining career, alongside a recognised certificate qualification.
Founded in 1918, AREEA works to promote sustainable workforce and industrial relations outcomes across Australia’s resources and energy industry.
Write to Maddison Elliott at Mining.com.au
Main Image: AREEA
