The end of this decade is 2030 – just five years away. The mining sector is at an inflection point, one being shaped by reshuffling of battery metal demand, rewiring of supply chains, a resetting in finance, and a pivot towards nature and climate-linked disclosure.
Parts one and two of Mining.com.au’s 2030 Outlook series uncovers the hive of activity expected in tier-one jurisdictions of low sovereign risk that offer lowest-quartile cost curves, more streaming/royalty, and structured offtake finance.
Part three digs deep into the technology propelling productivity; how AI is revolutionising resources; changing disclosure rules around how capital is priced; and whether decarbonisation is a net zero sum game.
In its Commodity Demand Outlook 2030 report, the Minerals Council of Australia outlines how the technology-led productivity growth that has lifted incomes and improved living standards of millions of people in highly populated economies will be a driving force of higher commodity consumption.
The MCA notes the transition to zero emissions energy will accelerate in the next decade.
“This too will rely on new metal-intensive electricity generation and transportation technologies such as renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles that will create higher demand for lithium, uranium, copper, and nickel,” the council reports.
Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable says Australia is a “world leader” when it comes to the exploration, geoscience, processing technologies, and environmental management systems needed to sustainably meet growing global needs over the next decade.
Industry sources agree that advancing technologies like AI and robotics are at the forefront of transforming mining operations by improving efficiencies and decision-making.
Miners can analyse vast amounts of data in real-time, helping optimise the use of resources, reduce energy consumption, improve fiscal responsibility, and predict equipment failures before they occur.
Technology propelling productivity
Mining companies that fuse IT and operational technology data with GenAI while derisking projects will continue cutting expenditure while maximising productivity. Using automation and AI in planning, maintenance, and haulage are moving operations from pilots to plant-wide deployments.
Some consultancies are reporting double-digit productivity gains when scaled. Studies show Australian resources companies adopting AI systems have been reducing operational costs by as much as 15%, with a significant increase in productivity.
McKinsey & Company’s 2023 report Mining’s Digital Revolution shows those implementing AI-driven operations have achieved 20-25% improvement in workforce productivity; 10-15% reduction in maintenance costs; 15-20% decrease in equipment downtime.
Delta Electronics Vice President of Business for Southeast Asia David Leal says this is more than a technological leap – it is a seismic shift that could redefine the future of mining.
The global provider of power and thermal management products and solutions sees AI as an industrial revolution – one that will reshape how mining companies operate, optimise, and electrify. Yet Leal notes these advancements are not only improving mining equipment performance.
Technology is being used as a cost curve weapon for mining companies. It is increasingly used for balancing budgets in finance divisions.
“At the end of the day, productivity is absolutely sitting at the core. Part of that is actually being enabled by AI”
Echoing these sentiments, PwC’s Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader Kerry Bradshaw says productivity is one of the core drivers around the world with miners now focusing on capex and opex, including optimising operations and maximising efficiencies.
As Bradshaw tells Mining.com.au, that in itself drives a significant amount of change in overall portfolios.
“At the end of the day, productivity is absolutely sitting at the core. Part of that is actually being enabled by AI,” she explains.
“You’re seeing it more and more trusted by the big players and also the medium-sized players as well. You are starting to see where essentially it’s been the back office to now absolutely everyone has that confidence in AI.
“You’re actually seeing AI become more embedded in different parts of the organisation. Over the next five years, I can only see that come quite extensively, and particularly focusing on productivity.”
Accessing analytics
The recently released Access Analytic 2025 CFO AI & Tech Insights Survey reinforces these insights. Founded in 2000, Access Analytic is a Perth-based future-focused tech firm that provides information on how to improve financial modelling and clients’ use of data with AI.
Access Analytic’s report shows some of Australia’s and the world’s largest mining and energy companies are still not using AI within their finance divisions. Survey data was collated from more than 60 companies, some of which had revenues upwards of $1 billion. The majority of those surveyed were mining companies from Western Australia.
The report reveals the adoption of AI in the mining and energy sectors’ finance divisions is significantly lower than in large Western Australian businesses overall. Some 28% of respondents have no plans to implement AI in their finance divisions, with Australian mining companies one of the largest groups in this area.
Of those using AI, the most common applications are to enhance productivity (55%) and generate insights (40%), while 30% of respondents are not using AI at all. More than two thirds (64%) indicate they see significant room for improvement in the way their organisation uses data.
Despite the availability of increasingly powerful tools, integrating multiple systems (63%), lack of data skills (37%), and dealing with fragmented data (32%) are cited as key challenges for finance teams. The main barriers to widespread adoption are privacy concerns (28%) and a lack of access to the appropriate expertise (27%).
Access Analytic Managing Director Jeff Robson says this lack of AI-led innovation is stifling opportunities, particularly in the resources sector.
“If you take mining, there are huge opportunities for those who are nimble right now. With the flick of an AI-button, mining innovators can evaluate the profitability of potential projects globally,” Robson says.
“Financial models can include shifts in commodity prices or geopolitical changes. Overall, AI can unlock the potential of companies, improving opportunities, productivity, and profitability.”
“Overall, AI can unlock the potential of companies, improving opportunities, productivity, and profitability”
Robson says boards should be asking their CEOs and CFOs how they are applying AI to better understand data and improve productivity. They also need to consider the threats and opportunities AI brings.
However, Access Analytic’s survey shows mid-sized companies are leading AI adoption. Roughly 80% are already using it, experimenting with it or planning to adopt AI within one to two years.
Early adopters in Australia include Kincora Copper (ASX:KCC) and Legacy Minerals (ASX:LGM), which have been partnering with Earth AI for some time. Earth AI partners with explorers and development companies to help prove up major discoveries in an expedited timeframe by using its vertically integrated, proprietary AI, and machine learning capabilities to generate, fund, and drill test targets.
Another Australian company embedding such tech into its strategy is Pivotal Metals (ASX:PVT), which in July 2025 initiated fieldwork and an AI program targeting new copper-nickel-platinum group metals deposits. At Midrim, within the Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt projects in Canada, fieldwork has begun with the first results expected during Q3 2025.
Meanwhile, in North America, Giant Mining (CSE:BFG) in early September began an artificial intelligence-driven phase two exploration program at the Majuba Hill Copper-Silver-Gold Project in Nevada, US. Giant’s CEO David Greenway says so far the effectiveness of the AI-driven targeting strategy is clearly evident.
“ExploreTech’s proprietary geophysical modelling successfully identified a high-potential breccia zone in the Southern Corridor, expanding our understanding of Majuba’s copper mineralisation,” Greenway says.
Giant Mining consulting geologist Buster Hunsaker adds that with the AI-driven process, Giant Mining can use the extensive property-wide, induced polarisation database.
Canada’s Opawica Explorations (TSX-V:OPW) recently generated 10km of drill targets across its Bazooka and Arrowhead projects, after implementing AI and machine learning with the geology team. Opawica is a junior explorer focused on precious and base metals in the Abitibi Gold Belt in Québec.
Pricing capital
Interestingly, Access Analytic’s CFO AI & Tech Insights Survey shows environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting remains an emerging focus for the use of AI.
Yet 43% of respondents indicate that ESG reporting is still not a priority.
Companies such as Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), MSCI, and Sustainalytics provide ESG ratings for a number of ASX-listed companies. ISS says ASX-listed miners exhibit relatively low environmental and social performance scores.
Of the companies covered by an ISS ESG Corporate Rating, fewer than 5% scored above 50 – a level that identifies Prime-rated issuers – for overall ESG performance.
There is a noticeable difference in the average ESG performance scores for 57 Australia-based mining companies with explorers rating 19.7 and producers 30.3. This is due to the limited scope of disclosures by exploration companies, which tend to lack sufficient quantifiable risk data.
Peak Asset Management Executive Director Niv Dagan believes lacking a focus on ESG can thwart mining companies from securing much-needed financing to develop projects.
Dagan tells Mining.com.au ASX and TSX-listed companies can now tap equity markets “a lot more rigorously and easily”, however financiers and lenders tend to have sustainability and the environment as part of their lending criteria.
Such is ESG’s importance, disclosure rules are now changing how capital is priced.
Thirty-six jurisdictions have adopted or otherwise use the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation (IFRS) Sustainability Disclosure Standards or are in the process of finalising steps towards introducing them into their regulatory frameworks.
Australia, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Zambia are some nations moving to align to the IFRS standards.
For miners, this means using standardised emissions and climate-risk data in primary filings – crucial information lenders and offtakers increasingly use to set deal terms.
Chair of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) Emmanuel Faber says these standards are bringing clarity to investors on the risks and opportunities lying in value chains across time horizons in a rapidly changing world.
“As also demonstrated by growing interest from the members of the Growth and Emerging Markets Committee of IOSCO, an increasing number of regulators are seeing the policy rationale for the paced adoption of the ISSB Standards to strengthen their jurisdiction’s access to capital and trade, allowing investors to make more informed investment decisions, and companies to attract capital,” Faber says.
Peak Asset Management is monitoring the situation as it is seeing a lot more inflows of capital right across the market. Dagan notes increasing access to equity means mining companies can be less reliant on debt markets, which are driven by how advanced projects are and the sovereign risk of where they are located.
“So a lot of the companies in mineral resources and processing are really relying on the equity markets and investors to fund essentially the project life cycle,” Dagan tells Mining.com.au.
“And as the market cap increases – I’m talking about $200 million, $300 million plus – it’s much, much easier to get them as a form of security across the pipeline.”
Net zero sum game?
Is mining a net zero sum game in this electrification revolution? Or is the sector at an inflection point?
With mining heading into some of the non-OECD regions, having better visibility, understanding, and decision making driven by AI together are major trends coming through, PwC’s Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader Kerry Bradshaw explains.
She reiterates that in times of geopolitical turmoil, security of supply, defence security, sustainability standards, and low sovereign risk will be key. And Australia has this in spades.
Amandine Denis-Ryan, CEO of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) tends to agree in terms of sustainability. Denis-Ryan says Treasury’s recent modelling clearly shows a continuously declining role for fossil gas in Australia’s economy, with a 70% reduction expected by 2050 compared to 2025 levels.
The industry sector plan highlights vast opportunities in increasing industrial energy efficiency and electrification, which can reduce Australia’s emissions while cutting business costs and improving competitiveness, IEEFA’s Chief Executive adds.
“The energy sector plan highlights the importance of energy efficiency, which can deliver 30% reduction in energy use by 2050, while reducing energy costs for households and businesses,” says Denis-Ryan.
“It is good to see the $5 billion net zero fund to support major investments in industrial decarbonisation and energy efficiency.
“It will also be important to consider financial and capability support for small to medium manufacturers which have large untapped opportunities to improve their energy efficiency and to electrify but limited resources.”
The Business Council of Australia (BCA) supports a commitment to net zero carbon emissions but says a 2035 target of more than 60% will need upwards of $400 billion in new investment.
With the current policy course, Australia can achieve a 50% reduction by 2035 with progress on project approvals and the building of energy infrastructure, BCA says.
There are different pathways required in order to deliver target ambition ranging from 50% to 70% emissions reductions by 2035. Those pathways include fixing the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, significant capital investment, and further enabling reform.
While the electricity, energy, and the land sectors have driven the bulk of Australia’s emission reductions over the past two decades, BCA says “we can’t continue to rely on these two sectors alone to do the heavy lifting forever — all sectors have an important role to play in achieving net zero by 2050”.
“The bulk of the emission reduction task to 2035 will fall to electricity and energy, resources, and industry with smaller contributions expected from transport, agriculture and buildings,” the BCA says.
Going nuclear?
Questions then arise as to what, if any, role nuclear energy will play in achieving net zero – not just in Australia but around the world.
An emerging global trend is the shift towards advanced nuclear technologies.
Combined with enhanced renewable energy strategies and improved energy storage solutions, sources say this underscores the global urgency of transitioning from fossil fuels towards green technologies.
The World Economic Forum believes a renewed wave of technological innovation in nuclear energy is under way to address demands for green power options.
“There is also a growing trend towards reducing the scale of power plants, with designs allowing key components to be manufactured in a factory and then transported to site,” the World Economic Forum reports.
“There is also a growing trend towards reducing the scale of power plants, with designs allowing key components to be manufactured in a factory and then transported to site”
“These small modular reactors (SMRs) typically cover about one-third of the generating capacity of traditional nuclear power reactors.
“Deploying multiple identical SMRs to achieve power outputs eliminates the high costs and long design cycles of a bespoke reactor, making SMRs attractive for distributed power generation.”
As such, by 2030 SMRs could redefine how power is delivered given their flexibility and ability to boost grid stability.
Why? They are advanced nuclear reactors with power capacity of up to 300 MW(e) per unit. That is about a third of the generating capacity of traditional nuclear power reactors.
These factory-built units extend nuclear technology’s reach to regions previously unreachable for traditional large-scale plants as they can be installed into an existing grid or remotely off-grid, as a function of its smaller electrical output. This enables them to serve remote communities or be added to existing industrial sites.
Some countries are dedicating substantial funds to support large-scale SMRs and alternative cooling designs. At present, only a handful of nations are heavily investing in large reactors outside of Russia and China.
“Most notably, South Korea has 26 nuclear reactors, accounting for one-third of the country’s electricity, and the United Arab Emirates’ Clean Energy Strategy involves investment of $163 billion by 2050 to have half of its electricity come from nuclear and renewables,” according to the World Economic Forum.
Needing uranium
If SMRs redefine how power is delivered by 2030, then more uranium is needed – and that means more mines need to come online. Commodity Insights forecasts global uranium demand to rise steadily to 2030 – from 79.7 kt in 2019 to 99.5 kt in 2030.
Growth will largely be driven by China, which recently outlined plans to increase nuclear generation installed capacity to 70 GW by 2025, up from 51 GW at the end of 2020. Japan is now slowly restarting its nuclear fleet and plans to increase nuclear output to roughly three times the 2019 level by 2030.
Like conventional nuclear power plants, SMRs use the heat produced from nuclear fission (splitting atoms) to create steam (from boiling water) that spins a turbine to produce electricity. The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering notes uranium-235 is the primary fission element (nuclear fuel) across 14 reactor designs. A coolant is used to transfer heat.
Presently, Kazakhstan accounts for 38% of global uranium supply and roughly 40% of uranium enrichment occurs in Russia. However, Australia has abundant uranium reserves, including the world’s largest deposit at Olympic Dam.
In Western Australia, in mid-September 2025 Cauldron Energy (ASX:CXU) entered into a memorandum of understanding with global uranium producer Navoiyuran State Enterprise to advance the Yanrey Uranium Project. Both companies will collaborate to provide technical assistance in design and operations, alongside future funding options and specialist in-situ recovery know-how and technical input into studies.
In South Australia, Alligator Energy (ASX:AGE) in September began drilling at the Samphire Project to construct its in-situ field recovery trial (FRT). As reported, Alligator attained approval from the South Australian Department for Energy and Mining to begin on-ground activities required for the plant, located near Whyalla. Operations for the FRT are anticipated to begin in early 2026.
“Many older uranium mines are shutting down over the coming years – combine this with the supply deficit in the long-term uranium market which will be prevalent by 2030 as more nuclear reactors come online, there is going to be significant demand for uranium”
Meanwhile in Namibia, Connected Minerals (ASX:CML) is aiming to have the Etango North-East Project phase two reverse circulation drilling results available during the latter half of September 2025. Recently speaking to Mining.com.au, Managing Director Warrick Clent says if the results begin showing the wider intersections the company is hoping for, it will be well positioned to potentially outline a maiden resource.
Connected Minerals believes uranium is now emerging in Africa and something to monitor heading towards the end of this decade and into the next.
“As widely publicised, many older uranium mines are shutting down over the coming years – combine this with the supply deficit in the long-term uranium market which will be prevalent by 2030 as more nuclear reactors come online, there is going to be significant demand for uranium,” Clent tells Mining.com.au.
Also in Namibia, Dark Star Minerals (CSE:BATT) and Critical One Energy (CSE:CRTL) have a definitive agreement to acquire the Cobra North and Khan West projects in the Erongo uranium province.
Dark Star CEO Marc Branson says the agreement has a tenure of two years, with additional cash payments and shared issuances scheduled over the period. The company has now completed a key milestone in the acquisition of both projects.
Rare earths for one planet
Rare earths will also play an increasingly important role in the coming decade – a sector dominated by China. There have been discoveries outside of China with large deposits in Australia, Canada, US, and Sweden, as Western nations seek to shore up rare earths supply.
Western mining companies are beginning to invest in processing. In November 2024, Lynas (ASX:LYC) opened its REEs facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia, which PwC says is the first in Australia and largest outside China.
The International Energy Agency forecasts demand for neodymium in particular to increase between 73% and 113% between 2020 and 2030 to reach 66 kt. Neodymium is required for high-strength permanent magnets which are used in wind turbines and in high-performance electric motors, among others.
Unsurprisingly, there are a growing number of companies seeking exposure to rare earths.
In late August, OD6 Metals (ASX:OD6) was raising $2.5 million as part of its strategy to advance the Splinter Rock Rare Earth project in Western Australia.
Also in Western Australia, Victory Metals (ASX:VTM) has identified heavy rare earth oxide (HREO) at its North Stanmore Project, reporting a ratio of HREO to TREO of 83% ahead of drilling. The company has identified 26 ‘high-value’ zones within the indicated resource area, bolstering the company towards a Prefeasibility Study which pins a 10-year mine life.
CEO Brendan Clark says Victory is aligned to emerge as a “globally significant” supplier through its quantities of heavy rare earth and strategic metals.
ABx Group (ASX:ABX) has completed leach tests on a 100kg ionic adsorption clay rare earth material sample from the Deep Leads Project in northern Tasmania, achieving greater than 70% extractions of dysprosium and terbium.
The results are consistent with previous leach tests conducted by ANSTO that found Deep Leads samples exhibited the highest extraction under near-neutral conditions reported from any clay-hosted resource in Australia.
ABx says its resource has the highest ionic adsorption of any clay-hosted rare earths resource in the country, as reported.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock, Unsplash & Mining.com.au
