Shanghai Platinum Week (SPW) 2026 has highlighted expectations of growing demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) linked to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which runs from 2026 to 2030.
According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), close to US$300 billion ($426 billion) of funding for AI infrastructure expansion alone will benefit the PGM industry. This is due to the widespread applications of PGMs across silicone production, hard disk drives, thin-film coatings on semiconductors and sensors, electronic-grade glass fabrics for circuit boards, crucibles for industrial crystals, hydrogen fuel cells for data centre back-up power, and jewellery.
The catalytic properties of PGMs remain a key driver of demand, with their most important application being catalytic converters, a key component of exhaust systems in internal combustion vehicles. Both platinum and palladium are central to autocatalysts, helping to reduce emissions from these vehicles.
WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond says that the value proposition for platinum in particular remains compelling based on current market fundamentals.
“The platinum market is forecast to record its fourth consecutive deficit in 2026, leading to further depletion of above-ground stocks, with just under three months’ worth of cover to meet global demand now expected by the end of 2026,” Raymond explains.
The undersupply in the platinum market sits alongside generally price inelastic conditions in the short to medium term, meaning that price increases generally aren’t able to stimulate immediate growth in production. The market is quite rigid due to the depth of platinum’s underground mines, multi-year capacity lead times, and the geographic concentration of supply and global reserves.
Primary production of PGMs comes from Southern Africa, North America, and Russia, with South Africa accounting for around 70% of global annual platinum supply. According to SFA Oxford, the majority of PGM supply from Russia is generated as a byproduct of nickel mining.
Canada emerges as a tier-one PGM jurisdiction
Canada is a global producer of PGMs, ranking third in palladium production and fourth in platinum production. Most of the country’s output comes from Ontario, followed by Québec, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador.
SPC Nickel (TSX-V:SPC) CEO Grant Mourre says that Canada is becoming an increasingly attractive jurisdiction, not just for PGMs, but for secure, tier-one sources of nickel and copper as well.
The company’s Muskox Copper-Nickel-PGM Project is located in Nunavut and is home to “a large magmatic sulphide system of the kind that hosts some of the world’s most significant deposits,” Mourre says.
Mourre notes that working in Canada’s Arctic comes with an element of exploration risk alongside logistics, season length, and cost considerations.
“Markets are always volatile, and PGMs are no exception,” Mourre says.
“Things like uncertainty around the pace of the drivetrain transition to electric vehicles (EVs), substitution dynamics, hydrogen timing, and the macro backdrop of rates and tariffs all influence prices.
“For a junior, capital markets and financing risk sit alongside all of that.”
The structurally short platinum market, a premium for Western supply security, and supportive local critical minerals policy are favouring new Canadian sources of critical minerals and PGMs, according to Mourre.
“We think that some commentators have been premature in declaring the death of the autocatalyst market. Demand will be more resilient than the headline EV adoption story allows,” Mourre says.
“What we have seen is some moderation in battery-electric penetration versus earlier forecasts, and hybrid uptake has been resilient. It’s important to note that hybrids still carry a catalytic converter.”
SPC Nickel is focused on generating drill-ready targets, not building a mine. Mourre notes the advantages of a polymetallic project like Muskox providing additional upside and optionality for the company.
“Muskox, our flagship project, is copper-nickel primarily, and the platinum and palladium should be seen as credits that improve the grade-equivalent value and payability of the project,” Mourre says.
SPC launched its 2026 field season in June, building on 2025 results that identified 85 high-priority electromagnetic (EM) conductors across the Muskox intrusion and its 60km feeder dyke.
The current field season has the company conducting a NOVEM three-axis ground EM survey to follow up on the strong conductors identified during the 2025 HELITEM survey. SPC is also undertaking a Spartan ground magnetotelluric (MT) survey across approximately 60km².
“The program is aimed at converting targets to drill-ready status,” Mourre says.
Over the coming months, the company has a number of catalysts, including completion of the ground EM and MT surveys, data integration and interpretation, and the ranking of drill-ready targets ahead of the planned 2027 drill campaign.
Transition Metals (TSX-V:XTM) also points to Canada’s potential to grow global supply. The company notes South Africa’s platinum supply is currently in structural decline, and there are no major new platinum mines outside South Africa that are expected to reach production before 2030. Palladium from Russia, which accounts for close to 40% of global supply, still faces ongoing sanctions and tariff risks.
CEO Scott McLean says that Canada offers a predictable and consistent regulatory environment for those looking for opportunities in safe jurisdictions.
“Primary PGM projects are rare, and we hold two good ones. Our Saturday Lake Nickel-Copper-PGM deposit in the Midcontinent Rift in Ontario was discovered and advanced in partnership with Impala Platinum (JSE:IMP), one of the world’s major platinum producers,” McLean says.
“Our wholly owned Saturday Night discovery sits in the same area. We also hold stakes in two nickel-PGM focused explorers, SPC Nickel and Class 1 Nickel (CSE:NICO), which gives shareholders added PGM exposure.”
McLean points to partner and investor appetite and pricing as the key risks he’s seeing in the market at the moment.
“Deal flow depends on commodity prices and on healthy capital markets, and a cold market obviously slows transactions,” McLean says.
“The opportunities are the mirror image. A structurally short platinum market, a Western supply security premium, and critical minerals policy support are all drawing partners toward Canadian ground, and we hold a portfolio of PGM-bearing projects ready to meet that demand, with existing partners like Impala and Springbok validating that approach.”
Looking at the overall PGM market, McLean notes that while demand for the group of metals is uncertain moving forward, platinum should perform, supported by autocatalyst demand in the near term and fuel cells in the longer term.
“We share the view that the death of the autocatalyst has been called too early,” McLean says, echoing the sentiment of SPC’s Mourre.
The opportunity is also somewhat muddied by the scarcity of primary PGM sources, as PGMs have traditionally been recovered as a byproduct of nickel-copper sulphide ores. McLean notes that, alongside a shift to nickel laterite ores, which do not contain the same levels of PGMs, global supply continues to dwindle.
“As a consequence, new sources of primary PGMs will be needed to supply our current and growing demand for the metals,” McLean says.
“Historically, the price of platinum has traded at multiples of the gold price, but in recent years, this pricing relationship has inverted in a manner that has deterred exploration for PGMs for some time.
“Over the past year, PGM prices have rebounded significantly, providing a signal prompting a return to exploration. We believe PGM prices will continue to increase and could resolve higher relative to the price of gold. Firm PGM prices can improve the economics that our partners are chasing and enhance both their appetite and the terms we can secure.”
Over the coming months, Transition Metals expects new options, joint ventures or sale agreements, partner-funded exploration results, and value creation from its spinouts, including SPC Nickel.
Western Australia steps forward as Australia’s PGM frontier
While Australia does not currently have any large-scale PGM-producing mines, a number of junior explorers, including Future Metals (ASX:FME), Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN), and Podium Minerals (ASX:POD), are advancing primary PGM and polymetallic projects, predominantly in Western Australia.
The Mineral Research Institute of Western Australia (MRIWA) notes that while Western Australia is abundant in PGM resources, the industry itself is not well understood.
Future Metals is currently advancing its wholly owned Panton PGM Project in the East Kimberley region, and is positioned as one of Australia’s few advanced-stage undeveloped primary PGM projects.
Managing Director Keith Bowes notes that the geology of the project is comparable to the South African platinum resources, as previously reported.
“When you look at the South African producers, Impala Platinum or Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW), they mine what’s called the UG2 Reef, which is a chromite-hosted PGM orebody — and that’s exactly what the high-grade material at Panton is,” Bowes says.
“Our high-grade chromite-hosted material grades at around 5–7 grams per tonne of PGM, which is a very similar grade to what the chromite ores in South Africa grade.”
The key differentiator, according to Bowes, is the stable, mining-friendly environment Australia provides.
Countries like South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe currently provide the majority of global supply but come with elevated operational and geopolitical risks. Bowes says jurisdictions such as Western Australia should benefit from the growing supply gaps and easier financing options.
“With PGMs now included in most critical minerals lists, government financing in western jurisdictions is also an option,” Bowes says.
Looking at the market dynamics, Bowes points out that historical market deficits are expected to continue in the short to medium term, with platinum deficits creeping higher than those seen in palladium.
“Platinum supply is expected to increase marginally due to the higher price environment, with demand declining predominantly due to lower vehicle production and higher prices negatively impacting jewellery demand,” Bowes says.
“Even with these metrics, the global deficit remains and inventory levels are being drawn down further, with replenishment required in the future.
“The move to full EVs has not occurred at the levels previously predicted, with hybrids being the preferred option. As hybrid vehicles still use autocatalysts, this drop in demand has not materialised.”
Future Metals completed an updated mineral resource estimate for the Panton Project in July, alongside a strategic review of all historical work completed. The company is also advancing work completed earlier in 2026, using the existing Savannah nickel processing facility to establish an updated Scoping Study.
“Assuming strong project economics from the scoping study, the company will roll into a full Feasibility Study, supported by an infill drill program to increase measured and indicated resources,” Bowes says.
Future Metals will continue its technical work program while progressing negotiations around the potential acquisition of Savannah, environmental and permitting work, and ongoing consultation with Traditional Owners.
Despite the uncertainty shaping the broader PGM market, the message from both Canadian and Australian juniors is consistent: structurally short platinum supply, Western security premiums, and critical minerals policy support are creating a window of opportunity for new discoveries in stable jurisdictions.
The next phase of PGM growth is likely to be driven not by legacy producers, but by emerging projects capable of supplying a tightening global market.
Write to Amy Rotman at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au, Future Metals
