Dry bulk commodities account for a significant portion of global trade due to their use in foundational industries. These raw materials include alumina, bauxite, coal, iron ore, grain, and fertilisers.
Bulk commodities are essential to world trade and industry. They are typically transported in loose, unpackaged forms and in large quantities across global trade routes in specialised vessels.
In 2024, the largest region in the dry bulk shipping market was North America. Asia-Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing region in the coming decade.
The dry bulk shipping market has grown in recent years and is expected to reach $12 billion in 2025, up slightly from $11.36 billion in 2024 – a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6%.
Increasing demand for raw materials, a rise in infrastructure development, expanding seaborne trade, the clean energy transition, and rebounding steel production is driving the market’s upward trajectory.
According to The Business Research Company, the dry bulk shipping market is forecasted to grow to $15.26 billion in 2029 at a CAGR of 6.2%. The research firm says this growth over the next few years reflects a modest reduction of 0.6% from the previous estimate for this market.
This reduction is primarily due to the US tariffs, which affects marine-grade steel, hatch covers, and ballast systems imported from South Korea and China, increasing fleet upgrade and construction costs in dry cargo transport.
Coal underwriting prosperity
However, surging demand for coal is poised to propel the growth of the dry bulk shipping market going forward. Coal remains a major energy source for electricity generation and industrial processes and there is demand due to rising energy needs, industrial growth, and continued reliance on coal-fired power plants in many regions around the world.
Nick Jorss, Chairman of Coal Australia, says it is the second biggest export industry in the country and as such, his organisation is reclaiming the public narrative. Recently speaking to Mining.com.au, Jorss says while iron ore is Australia’s top export market, coal is still underwriting so much of the country’s prosperity.
“We’ve got some of the cleanest, best coal in the world. We export it. Australia’s coal makes the steel and provides the electricity for the globe and for ourselves. So, we should be extremely proud of it,” he says.
In the first four months of 2025, the global seaborne metallurgical coal trade (also called coking coal) has tracked broadly in line with levels seen in 2023 and 2024. Demand has risen among key importers India and Europe, while supply disruptions that have been hampering Australian exports are now easing.
Despite a broadly steady H1 2025, the metallurgical coal market is facing an uncertain outlook on the back of ongoing trade disputes and the associated prospects of weaker than expected economic growth.
“We’ve got some of the cleanest, best coal in the world”
According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly, the trade barriers between China and the US are slowing metallurgical coal trade between the two countries. Despite the challenges of supply disruptions and trade barriers, seaborne exports are expected to remain at relatively high historical levels in 2025.
Export volumes and values have been revised down since the March quarter primarily due to the impacts of unseasonably wet weather and incidents at Australian mine sites coupled with marginally weaker prices. Export volumes have been revised down 8 million tonnes in 2024-25 to 3 million tonnes in 2025–26 and 4Mt in 2026–27.
In Australia, coal exploration spend fell to $56.6 million in the March 2025 quarter, down from $83.3 million in the December 2024 quarter. The 32% fall occurred alongside significant declines in the prices of both metallurgical and thermal coal in the March quarter.
The seaborne thermal coal trade also slowed in 2025. Increased domestic production in China and India and a surge in renewable power capacity reduced demand for seaborne coal. As a result prices have fallen and profit margins reduced.
Iron ore steel the one
One bulk commodity that could soon see a resurgence is iron ore – the main ingredient in steelmaking. It requires about 1.6 tonnes of the commodity to produce one tonne of steel.
Global steel production in the four months to April 2025 was 624 million tonnes – 0.3% below the corresponding period in 2024. This slight decline was driven by weakening demand and production across Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Russia.
Steel production is expected to remain weak over H2 2025 and fall by 0.2% due to increased trade barrier uncertainties and planned output cuts in China. However, industrial production is poised to grow by roughly 2.5% year-on-year out to 2027, as steel-intensive manufacturing, infrastructure, and civil construction sectors gradually recover.
Manufacturing outside of China should stabilise and then expand slowly. Combined with infrastructure projects, market analysts believe this should lead to a moderate recovery in steel demand by 2026, gaining momentum in 2027.
The steel industry accounts for 7% of global energy demand and generates between 7% and 9% of carbon dioxide emissions. Currently, 70% of steel is produced using energy intensive and high emission methods.
DISR’s June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly notes world iron ore supply is forecasted to increase by 0.9% a year over the outlook period to 2027, with new supply coming online in Australia, Brazil, and from Africa.
Australia and Brazil – the world’s two largest producers – are expected to continue to collectively grow export volumes by 1.3% a year over the outlook period.
Iron ore mining companies remain bullish, highlighted by some recent deals and activity in exploration.
In early September 2025, Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) signed a binding right-to-mine agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation, granting it a 30-year exclusive right to mine and export iron ore from the Weld Range Project in Western Australia.
The company will pay $60 million cash over a 24-month period to Sinosteel. Fenix will grant Sinosteel a production royalty ranging from $4 per dry metric tonne to $5, as well as a profit share royalty. The deal provides Fenix with 290 million tonnes of iron ore measured, indicated, and inferred resource.
Fenix Executive Chairman John Welborn says securing so many tonnes of hematite direct shipping iron ore is a game changer. He says the partnership has expanded to include the Baowu Group – the world’s largest steelmaker.
“Aligned with our aspiration to become a 10 million tonne per annum iron ore producer, this value accretive right to mine agreement provides the inventory we need to maximise the value of our exceptional transport infrastructure and materially expand our operations and extend our mine life,” Welborn says.
“This major mining and logistics project is a perfect match for Fenix’s ambition and track record of achievement. Sinosteel is a foundation partner in our growth as an emerging iron ore producer.”
In June, Alchemy Resources (ASX:ALY) acquired the remaining 50% interest in the iron ore rights of the Bryah Project from joint venture partner Carey Mining. Comprising 527km2 landholding, the project is located along strike west of Sandfire Resources’ (ASX:SFR) DeGrussa and Monty deposits.
CEO James Wilson says Alchemy is excited to take full ownership of the tenements, which has approved programs of work, along with heritage surveys completed to plan logistics of a maiden drill program.
Alchemy paid $75,000 cash, as well as a gradational royalty of the iron ore sold freight on board from the project to its joint venture partner. Iron ore prices under US$100 will offer a royalty of $0.80/t, greater than US$125 will offer a royalty of $1.22, while ore priced between the two markets will offer a royalty of $1.
One of the more advanced players is Champion Iron (ASX:CIA), which in July entered into a definitive framework agreement with Nippon Steel Corporation (TYO:5401) and Sojitz Corporation (TYO:2768) to sell a combined 49% stake in the Kami Iron Ore Mine Partnership for C$245 million.
Champion will hold a 51% stake in the partnership, while Nippon Steel and Sojitz will hold 30% and 19%, respectively. The company is completing a Definitive Feasibility Study, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.
Green future
Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) says global demand for green iron could reach more than 850 million tonnes by 2050 in a net zero scenario.
As such, the Australian Government is investing almost $20 million to bolster the green metals sector with a grant to develop the production of low-emissions iron using Pilbara iron ore in Kwinana, south of Perth in Western Australia.
The funding will support a nearly $49 million front-end engineering design (FEED) study for the NeoSmelt project, which is seeking to replace the traditional blast furnace steelmaking route by developing an electric smelting furnace to make low-emissions iron.
NeoSmelt is a joint venture between BlueScope (ASX:BSL), BHP (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Mitsui Iron Ore Development. The Kwinana facility is poised to become Australia’s largest ironmaking electric smelting furnace pilot plant.
One company that believes in the future of green iron and green steel is Athena Resources (ASX:AHN), which produced a 10kg product sample of high-grade magnetite concentrate grading 70.55% iron, after conducting new metallurgical testwork at the Byro Project in Western Australia.
Using drill core samples from the FE1 ore body deposit, Athena produced the iron ore concentrate using standard processing methods. The material was crushed and ground down and was then put through a low intensity magnetic separation stage to produce the concentrate.
CEO Peter Jones says Byro’s ability to efficiently produce ultra high-grade iron ore concentrates grading above 70% iron is a game changer and sets the company’s project apart from peers.
“The results are particularly pleasing and are consistent with the world-class test results Athena has achieved previously,” says Jones.
“Athena believes that the future of green iron and green steel is entirely dependent on the future supply of premium quality high-grade magnetite concentrates.”
“Athena believes that the future of green iron and green steel is entirely dependent on the future supply of premium quality high-grade magnetite concentrates”
Green iron is also the focus of Hawsons Iron (ASX:HIO), which is advancing green steel production through magnetite concentrate. The company’s namesake project is located near essential infrastructure and aims to reduce emissions and cut operational costs.
Hawsons has begun a collaborative research project with the Commonwealth of Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), with financial assistance provided via the Kick-Start Program.
The two-part project aims to provide further confidence in the physical and metallurgical properties of pellets that can be manufactured from Hawsons’ magnetite concentrate. In conjunction, the project seeks to determine the chemical and mineralogical properties of the non-magnetic iron content contained within the tails fraction.
Specifically, the work is designed to determine the main iron-bearing mineral reporting to the tails, the degree of liberation of the iron-oxide in the tails and the associated gangue minerals, and the deportment of phosphorus in the fraction.
CEO Tom Revy says these studies are important to Hawsons’ investigations into potential saleable hematite byproducts, and continued discussions with potential offtakers in regarding the quality concentrate in high-value green pellets.
Iron grip
Burley Minerals (ASX:BUR) is seeking to fast-track drilling and exploration at its Cane Bore Iron Ore Project, which is less than 100km from Onslow and the Ashburton Port. The project is adjacent to the tenure held by Minerals Resources (ASX:MIN) and the API joint venture.
Managing Director Stewart McCallion is bullish on the iron ore sector, telling this news service there are very attractive opportunities available for companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows.
McCallion says the Pilbara continues to be the best location for iron ore mining for a generation and majors are considering replenishing their diminishing reserves, meaning conditions favour M&A.
Meanwhile, Tempest Minerals (ASX:TEM) is furthering exploration work at the Halo target within its flagship Yalgoo Project in Western Australia after recent fieldwork found the presence of iron.
An outcrop mapping program at the deposit returned at least five iron formation units for a strike length extending more than 5km to the north. The company is collating recent findings with a historical program, which returned rock chip samples up to 62% iron with potential for magnetite and hematite mineralisation.
The Halo target spans 1,000km2 and is 5km west of the Remorse deposit, which holds an exploration target for up to 100 million tonnes @ 32% iron with an inferred estimate of 63.5 million tonnes @ 30.6% iron.
This target bears similarities to the Remorse deposit, which is under a memorandum of understanding with privately held Green Steel and Iron, as reported by Mining.com.au.
Alumina alum
Global bauxite prices spiked in late 2024 and early 2025 due to severe supply disruptions from Guinea and reduced production in China. Conditions remain primed for further supply disruptions. This comes off the back of Emirates Global Aluminium has terminating its bauxite mining operations in Guinea following the government’s expropriation of its mine.
Slow global growth reduced global primary aluminium demand by 1.8% year-on-year to almost 18 million tonnes in Q1 2025.
Over this period, primary aluminium demand in China fell by 2.4% year-on-year to 11Mt. Strong solar installation in China – an aluminium-intensive energy transition sector – partially offset the weakness from other sectors such as construction.
Indian and US industrial consumers accelerated primary aluminium consumption ahead of rising US tariffs. Cost-cutting efforts by automotive makers have led to greater use of recycled aluminium and helped to push secondary aluminium demand up by 5.1% to 6.7Mt in Q1 2025.
Higher global primary aluminium production boosted alumina usage by 0.2% year-on-year in the March quarter to 35Mt. The International Aluminium Institute notes recycled aluminium is 95% less energy-intensive than primary aluminium.
An expected rise in global primary aluminium production is likely to drive higher demand for alumina over the outlook period. In line with world primary aluminium production, global alumina demand is expected to increase from 147Mt in 2025 to 151Mt in 2027.
ABx Group (ASX:ABX) sees tremendous opportunity in global bauxite markets it plans to capture.
The company has secured $5.4 million from Good Importing International to advance the Sunrise Bauxite Project in Queensland to acquire a 75% interest in the project. Good Importing will also acquire options in the Taralga and Penrose sites in New South Wales.
ABx’s strategy is to fast-track the development of the Sunrise project, with the potential for a further $4.8 million investment.
Managing Director Dr Mark Cooksey says Good Importing International is highly experienced in financing, developing, and securing offtake for Australian bulk commodities projects and looks forward to a long-term productive partnership.
The Sunrise Bauxite Project consists of a JORC-compliant resource of 37 million tonnes of gibbsite-type metallurgical bauxite at Binjour and port operations at Bundaberg port.
Meanwhile, Impact Minerals (ASX:IPT) is an Australian explorer focused on establishing itself as a ‘key player’ in the high purity alumina (HPA) industry.
In August it completed the issuance of 120 million shares to secure an 80% interest in Playa One, the owner of the Lake Hope HPA Project. This transaction follows a recently completed Prefeasibility Study (PFS), which demonstrates Lake Hope has potential to be one of the lowest-cost, lowest-carbon HPA projects globally.
The PFS highlights the unique qualities of the Lake Hope resource surface-accessible feedstock that supports simple mining, low reagent consumption, and a straightforward process flowsheet, resulting in “potentially industry-leading capital and operating costs”.
Impact confirms that all the material assumptions underpinning the production target, or the forecast financial information derived from the production target, in the PFS continue to apply and have not materially changed.
In early September Impact executed a JV agreement with Kuniko (ASX:KNI) to further exploration at the Commonwealth Project in New South Wales, bringing it to a decision to mine. The company will receive 3.13 million shares in Kuniko following a due diligence period of two weeks, half of which will be held in escrow for six months, and the other half for one year.
Kuniko will then be required to spend $1.5 million in the first two years of the agreement to obtain 51% interest in the project, which will be accompanied with another $1.5 million in spending across the following two years for a 70% stake.
Leading up to the decision to mine, Kuniko will free-carry Impact’s remaining 30% stake. Impact will then be required to either contribute or dilute to 10%, converting to the 2% net smelter royalty.
Another company active in the space is Metro Mining (ASX:MMI), which increased its shipped production rate in August 2025 by 6%, totalling 753,101 wet metric tonnes at the Bauxite Hills Operation in Queensland.
The Bauxite Hills Mine is located near Weipa in Western Cape York in Far North Queensland. The mine has been operating since April 2018 and, as of 31 December 2024, has an estimated reserve of 77.7 million tonnes and a total resource of 114.4 million tonnes of ore from the mine is shipped to meet Asia Pacific’s growing bauxite market.
In July, Metro shipped 714,000 wet metric tonnes of product from Bauxite Hills. In June 2024, 589,000 wet metric tonnes were shipped, as reported by Mining.com.au. To date, 3.4 million wet metric tonnes of bauxite have been shipped this year, which signals that Metro Mining is on target for its 2025 target of shipping 6.5 to 7 million wet metric tonnes of product.
Metro Mining’s focus on continuous improvement in materials handling has yielded record throughput rates of the Barge Loading Facility, with an average rate over 1,700 tonnes per hour achieved through August.
The company notes unfavourable weather conditions at the beginning of August impacted shipping operations for two to three days.
Dry bulk shipping
The main types of dry bulk shipping are capesize, panamax, supramax, and handysize vessels. Capesize vessels are large bulk carriers exceeding 150,000 deadweight tons (DWT) and are too large to transit the Panama Canal.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a composite index tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk commodities and serves as a leading indicator of global economic activity. Published by the Baltic Exchange, it is a critical barometer for shipping costs and demand and is closely monitored by industry stakeholders for insights into global economic trends.
At the end of 2024 the BDI closed at 1,099 points, marking a massive 57% drop year-on-year. As a result, freight rates across all vessel classes suffered under sluggish demand and oversupply pressures.
The Baltic Exchange snapped a five-day winning streak on 11 September 2025, falling 0.1% to 2,111 points, dragged down by the bigger size segment.
The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, declined about 1% to 3,041 points, likely tracking lower iron ore prices, as per Trading Economics.
However, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose about 1.2% to an over one-year high of 1,998 points, and the supramax index increased by 0.4% to 1,484 points.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: Burley, Hawsons Iron & Metro Mining
