In Part One of this series, we looked at 2024 to date — ‘the biggest election year in history’ in the minds of some. There was Russia, India, Mexico, the UK, and even the International Seabed Authority, which regulates mineral-related activity on the deep sea floor.
But the year isn’t over yet, with many eyes expected to be on the Trump-Harris US presidential election in November. Then there’s a bit of a lull before major elections in Australia and Canada towards the end of 2025.
United States
Few news topics arouse international headlines like a US presidential election, and few US presidential elections have been this arousing. From the return of Donald Trump and the bowing out of current President Joe Biden, to the rise of Kamala Harris and further rise of political tension, the whole thing is a spectacle.
But what does that mean for the lowly mining investor?
“There are a lot of emotions involved,” Dan Lefkovitz, a strategist for Morningstar Indexes, says.
“It’s also really hard to predict the results of an election, what sort of policies are going to be enacted, what the market reaction is going to be.”
For his part, Trump has threatened to slap countries that shun the US dollar with 100% tariffs — a stance Hao Hong, chief economist at GROW Investment Group, told CNBC is a “lose-lose” for both the US and China.
Trump had previously proposed to levy tariffs of 10% to 20% on US trading partners and duties of 60% on China, which some economists have said could give rise to a new wave of inflation.
His other proposals include corporate tax cuts, deregulation of certain industries, reduced independence of the Federal Reserve’s board, and the elimination of taxes on tips and Social Security retirement benefits.
Meanwhile, Harris has made class issues a focus of her campaign.
“She’s doubling down on efforts to support lower- and middle-class families and small businesses and pay for it with tax increases on the wealthy and corporations,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told USA Today.
Other areas of focus include tax credits and government initiatives for housing, increased corporate taxes, increased taxes for wealthy individuals, a federal ban on the ‘price gouging’ of groceries, lower drug costs under Medicare, expanded tax credits for children, and — like Trump — the elimination of taxes on tips.
A recent assessment by Saxo Bank took a narrower view, asking the question: Will gold win in all scenarios?
Ole Hanson, the Copenhagen-based firm’s head of commodity strategy, noted that gold has provided an annual rate of return of 8.4% in US dollars over the last decade, consistently outpacing inflation. This, he added, makes it an attractive option for long-term investors, regardless of the election outcome.
“Overall, the combination of geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly in the wake of the US presidential election, makes a bullish case for gold as a hard asset,” Hanson writes.
“Gold should always be seen mostly as something that preserves its value than as something that will go significantly higher in real terms (beyond the rate of inflation). Investors are likely to continue viewing gold as a hedge against the uncertainties posed by both economic and policy forces.”
American voters will head to the polls on 5 November, with the winner of the election to be inaugurated on 20 January, 2025.
Australia
In Australia, the next federal election is due to take place on or before 27 September, 2025. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives, and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate, will be contested.
It’s expected that the Labor Government of current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will seek re-election to a second term, opposed by the Liberal-National Coalition led by Peter Dutton.
At the previous election in May 2022, a Labor Government was formed after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives.
According to the latest polling data from Roy Morgan, the election would be “too close to call” if it were held today, with Labour on 51% and the Coalition on 49%.
“The most important result this week is that over a third of the electorate (33.5%, unchanged from a week ago) plan to vote for a minor party or independent at the next election,” Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine wrote on 9 September.
“This is up from the last federal election and shows that preference deals and negotiations will be a key factor in determining which major party forms Australia’s next government.”
Over the last few months, there has been significant political debate in Australia’s resources and energy sectors in particular.
There were extensive debates over matters of ‘sovereign risk’ in August when Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek put the brakes on Regis Resources’ (ASX:RRL) McPhillamy’s gold project.
Warren Pearce, CEO of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC), said at the time that the decision was “incredibly disappointing” and “sets a truly terrible precedent for investment risk in Australia”.
Meanwhile, Rebecca Tomkinson, CEO of Western Australia’s Chamber of Minerals and Energy, said the “uncertainty adds to the risk” faced by those seeking to get mining projects off the ground.
There was also a sprawling debate in June over Dutton’s proposed nuclear power plan, which led to public division over its lack of specifics. An analysis by the Smart Energy Council found the plan could cost taxpayers as much as $600 billion while accounting for just 3.7% of Australia’s energy mix by 2050.
That compares to the Albanese Government’s plan for 82% renewables by 2030, and an almost 100% renewable energy mix by 2050, at a cost of around $116 billion.
Canada
Last on the list of major near-term elections is Canada, which is due to vote on or before 20 October, 2025.
The country’s political environment was delivered a dose of uncertainty last week after the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew from a deal that helped keep current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in power.
Known as a ‘supply and confidence’ agreement, the deal saw the NDP back the minority Liberal Government in confidence votes in return for support on key priorities. The arrangement was originally designed to run until June 2025, and its collapse now means a federal election is likely to take place ahead of the 20 October date.
A survey following the dissolution of the NDP-Liberal deal, conducted from 6 September to 8 September, found 47% of Canadians were in favour of calling an election. The Léger poll also showed that the Conservative Party had maintained its lead with 45% of the vote, followed by the Liberal Party with 25% and the NDP at 15%.
Notably, 54% of voters said they expected Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party to win the next election, while just 15% thought the Liberals would take the win. Roughly 65% of Canadians said they lacked confidence in Trudeau’s ability to govern with the NDP support, while 40% said they were not confident at all.
The Canadian Government’s decision earlier this year to drastically increase its scrutiny of large mergers and acquisitions in the critical minerals sector was met with a dose of resistance, with some viewing it as an “over-reaction”.
Canada has in recent years taken a tougher stance on foreign investments, specifically from China.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Clean Air Metals (TSX-V:AIR) CEO Mike Garbutt acknowledged that oversight of dealmaking is necessary, as long as it fosters productivity.
“I believe that there should be some oversight and review of M&As involving foreign enterprises to ensure any transaction is in the best interest of Canadian entities,” Garbutt said in July.
“However, the government needs to also create an environment where Canadian mining companies can thrive and compete on a global scale.”
Meanwhile, Power Nickel (TSX-V:PNPN) CEO Terry Lynch described the measures as a “classic government move after (the) ship has sailed.”
“I think the market over-reacted. All countries review deals of this size to ensure their interests are protected,” Lynch explained.
“Is it a good thing? I am a true believer in capitalism, so not a big fan of big brother and regulations and impediments. However, we need a balanced playing field and we don’t have that internationally, so in this respect governments have to take action.”
In any case, Trudeau has offered a confident assessment of his party’s ability to present an effective contrast with the Conservatives when Parliament returns to session in a couple of weeks.
“The reality is, all of us are focused on what to do to make sure that Canadians are being supported, are feeling confident about the future,” he told reporters on Wednesday.
Write to Oliver Gray at Mining.com.au
Images: Unsplash, Library of Congress, The White House, Anthony Albanese, Justin Trudeau
