A 30% drop in production has caused nickel’s spot price to soar 17%, according to new World Bank Group data.
The Indonesian Government’s recent policy shift to reduce 2026 ore production quotas will place upward pressure on nickel.
Authorities claim the cutbacks will support export prices, promote domestic downstream processing, and reduce both illegal and environmentally damaging mining activity.
“Nickel prices surged by 17% in quarter one of 2026 (quarter-on-quarter) and have remained elevated in April, largely reflecting a policy shift in Indonesia, where about 60% of global nickel is produced,” the group’s April 2026 commodity markets outlook reports.
The World Bank also expects further disruptions to Middle East sulphur exports, which are used for nickel ore leaching.
The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is also predicted to create an “upside risk” for nickel prices.
“The [Middle East] region accounts for nearly 25% of global sulphur production,” the outlook says.
The bank believes the shortfall will cause global consumption growth to overtake lower supply.
“Nickel prices are projected to increase by 12% in 2026 (year-on-year) and rise by 3% in 2027,” the report says.
Little relief is in sight as global refined nickel production increases “modestly” in 2026 and 2027, as new processing capacity comes online in Indonesia.
“Tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain capacity utilisation and keep market conditions tight,” the report says.
Western Mines Group (ASX:WMG) is optimistic after securing a $250,000 Exploration Incentive Scheme (EIS) grant for its Mulga Tank Ultramafic Complex in Western Australia.
This state government funding will be used to cover up to half of active seismic survey expenses at the project.
As previously reported, Western Mines will target the main body, with a 35km² survey to image the architecture and placement of the complex within the Minigwal Greenstone Belt.
“We have waited three years for the regional EIS Geophysical Program to reach the Mulga Tank Project area, and we are very pleased to receive the maximum $250,000 award towards a seismic survey,” Chairman Rex Turkington says.
“This survey will help to unlock the 3D architecture of the complex and, combined with our other datasets, will greatly aid our understanding and targeting of Perseverance-style basal massive sulphide accumulations.”
Renforth Resources (CSE:RFR) has resumed exploration across its Parbec gold and Victoria polymetallic deposits in Québec, Canada.
Equipment mobilisation is underway as the company resumes field work within the open-pit footprint of the gold deposit.
This initiative follows a recently completed chipping program and builds on a stripping program during late autumn 2025, which exposed the critical junction between the gold-bearing Cadillac Break and the diorite splay — a gold mineralised structure extending into the Pontiac sediments.
The chipping program has expanded surface coverage to 320m by 120m, encompassing portions of the Cadillac Break, the diorite splay, and the Pontiac sediments. The program is designed to progress northwestward from the area where the underground decline terminates at 100m depth.
The program will also uncover ground directly above its targeted underground bulk sample area as Mining.com.au earlier reported.
Fathom Nickel (CSE:FNI) recently made a new discovery 500 metres east-northeast of the Gochager Lake deposit in Canada.
Drilling intersected broad zones of magmatic nickel-copper-cobalt sulphide mineralisation and robust borehole electromagnetic (BHEM) conductors were identified, including the strongest off-hole BHEM conductor encountered to date at the project.
The new discovery area will be subject to additional drilling once the company begins the Canadian summer phase of drilling in early June 2026.
“We will spend the next two months refining our interpretations of results from the winter program and planning new drill holes for the upcoming summer phase of the drill program,” Vice President of Exploration Ian Fraser says.
Stainless steel producers account for about 66% of nickel customers. This is expected to remain the main source of demand growth across industrial, transport, and consumer markets.
Rising electric vehicle adoption will also support battery demand for nickel. However, growing use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, particularly in China, is likely to “partially temper growth”.
The World Bank Group is an intergovernmental agency with an aim of reducing poverty and promoting sustainable development through knowledge, financing, and expertise.
Write to Richard Szabo at Mining.com.au
Images: World Bank Group
