Key takeaways:
- Gold has become Australia’s second-largest resource export, with earnings forecast at $69–74 billion in 2025–27, driven by record prices above US$4,300 ($6,025) per ounce (Source: Dept. of Industry, Science and Resources, December 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly).
- Copper hit a record US$11,870 per tonne in December 2025 and is expected to stay elevated through 2026, fuelled by electrification demand and constrained global supply.
- Australia’s total resource and energy export earnings are forecast at $383 billion in 2025–26 — historically very high, though easing marginally from the $385 billion peak in 2024–25.
- Critical minerals export earnings are forecast to grow from $11 billion in 2024–25 to $14 billion in 2026–27, supported by government investment and new US–Australia supply chain agreements.
- Capital expenditure has stabilised at around 1.9% of GDP — well below the 6.2% peak of the 2000s boom — indicating measured growth rather than a full-scale cycle (Source: Deloitte Access Economics, March 2026).
- The verdict: not a boom in the 2000s sense, but a structurally significant upturn led by new commodities and more disciplined capital — the beginning of a different kind of resources cycle.
The last time that Australia’s mining sector genuinely boomed, it transformed the country.
Between roughly 2003 and 2012, soaring Chinese demand for iron ore and coal pushed commodity prices to extraordinary heights, reshaped the national economy, and turned the Pilbara into one of the most economically significant stretches of land on Earth.
That cycle is still the benchmark against which every new upswing gets measured.
So, when analysts started talking seriously about another resources boom heading into 2026, it was natural to ask: is this the real thing, or is it just a good run with a flattering name?
The honest answer is more nuanced than either the optimists or the sceptics would have you believe.
Australia’s resources sector is genuinely strengthening. Gold is at record highs, copper prices have hit all-time peaks, and critical minerals are finally attracting the kind of policy commitment and international capital the sector has been chasing for years.
But it is also a fundamentally different kind of strength to 2003–12 — more selective, more capital-disciplined, and led by commodities that barely registered in the last boom.
This analysis draws on the Australian Government’s December 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) and recent company disclosures from BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Yancoal (ASX:YAL), and Whitehaven (ASX:WHC).
It also references independent forecasts from Deloitte Access Economics, BMI, Oxford Economics, and S&P Global to give an honest assessment of where Australia’s mining sector stands in 2026 — and what drives it from here.
What ‘boom’ actually means — and why 2026 doesn’t fit the old definition
The 2000s mining boom had a very specific character. It was driven primarily by China, which consumed extraordinary volumes of iron ore and coal to fuel urbanisation and industrialisation at a speed the world had never seen.
Prices for both commodities surged, investment flooded in, and Australia’s capital expenditure on mining peaked at around 6.2% of GDP at the height of the cycle, according to Deloitte Access Economics.
That is not what is happening now.
Capital expenditure has stabilised at around 1.9% of GDP over the past six years, less than a third of the boom-era peak. Mining’s share of total private capital expenditure has eased to roughly 25%, down from close to 30% in 2021–22, as non-mining spending on data centres and energy infrastructure has grown faster.
Total resource and energy export earnings are forecast to ease from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $383 billion in 2025–26 and $374 billion in 2026–27, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR).
But here’s the thing: those figures are still historically enormous.
The decline from $385 billion to $383 billion is the kind of ‘fall’ that most industries would describe as extraordinary stability. And underneath the headline number, the composition of Australia’s resource export earnings is shifting in ways that will define the sector for the next decade.
How the export mix is shifting (AUD billions)
| Commodity | 2024–25 (actual) | 2025–26 (forecast) | 2026–27 (forecast) |
| Iron ore | $116 billion | $114 billion | $107 billion |
| Gold | $47 billion | $69 billion | $74 billion |
| LNG and energy exports | $108 billion | declining | $81 billion |
| Copper | $13 billion | rising | $17.6 billion |
| Lithium | $4.8 billion | recovering | $6.8 billion |
| Critical minerals (other) | $11 billion | growing | $14 billion |
Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources — Resources and Energy Quarterly, December 2025.
The story this table tells is not one of a single-commodity boom. It is a rotation — away from energy exports (LNG, thermal coal) and toward the metals the global energy transition demands: gold, copper, and critical minerals.
That is a structurally more durable driver than China’s infrastructure build-out, because it is not tied to one country’s development phase. Instead, it is tied to the entire world’s need to electrify.
Gold: from supporting act to Australia’s second-largest export earner
Nobody at the start of 2024 would have predicted that gold would become Australia’s second most valuable resource export within 18 months, displacing liquefied natural gas. But that is exactly what has happened.
The December 2025 REQ from DISR reported that the gold price hit a new record above US$4,300 per ounce in the December quarter. This was driven by US interest rate cuts, persistent geopolitical tension, sustained central bank buying, and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
Australia’s gold export earnings have been revised sharply upward: from $47 billion in 2024–25, the forecast now sits at $69 billion in 2025–26 and $74 billion in 2026–27.
That is not a rounding error. That is a 57% increase in the value of Australia’s gold exports over two years, driven by a combination of higher prices and rising production volumes.
Production is growing alongside the price
Australia is currently the world’s third-largest gold producer. Output is forecast to rise from 293 tonnes in 2024–25 to approximately 369 tonnes by 2026–27, according to the Minerals Council of Australia — an increase of around 76 tonnes or roughly 26%.
New projects and mill upgrades across Western Australia and other states are expected to add around 67 tonnes of additional annual production to the national total.
Newer operations, including De Grey Mining’s (ASX:DEG) Hemi Gold Project and Westgold Resources’ (ASX:WGX) Great Fingall, are among those expected to contribute meaningful volumes.
High prices are also reviving exploration. When gold is trading above US$3,500 per ounce, projects that looked marginal at US$1,800 suddenly have compelling economics.
Exploration spending is picking up across Western Australia and Queensland, particularly for gold-copper targets, which is precisely the kind of early-stage activity that tends to precede sustained production growth.
What this means for ASX gold stocks
The direct beneficiaries on the ASX have been the mid-to-large gold producers. Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN), Newmont‘s (ASX:NEM) Australian operations, and Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) have all seen substantial margin expansion as the gold price has outpaced cost inflation.
Evolution Mining’s share price appreciation of around 87% by mid-2025, for instance, is illustrative of what happens when a quality producer is leveraged to a commodity in a sustained bull run.
For investors, the key question is not whether gold prices stay elevated, but whether Australian producers can grow production volumes efficiently enough to sustain earnings momentum even if the spot price eases.
Copper: the structural commodity of the decade
If gold has been the surprise story of 2025–26, copper is the commodity that most analysts had already identified as the defining metal of the energy transition — and the data is now matching the theory.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price hit a record US$11,870 per tonne in the second week of December 2025, driven by what DISR described as a combination of tight supply and strong demand across electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and electric vehicles (EVs).
The December 2025 REQ revised copper price forecasts upward by 12% for 2025–26, to US$10,658 per tonne, and by a further 10% for 2026–27. Australia’s copper export earnings are projected to rise from $13 billion in 2024–25 to $17.6 billion in 2026–27.
BHP and Rio Tinto are both pivoting toward copper
In Western Australia’s Pilbara, BHP is progressing major iron ore expansions, including a US$2 billion investment aimed at lifting infrastructure and throughput capacity while simultaneously increasing its copper exposure as a strategic priority.
Rio Tinto, meanwhile, approved a $294 million Feasibility Study in December 2025 for its Rhodes Ridge Iron Ore Project (an initial 40–50 million tonnes per annum operation), even as its copper equivalent production jumped 8% in 2025, driven by the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.
The message from both majors is consistent: iron ore generates the cash, copper is the growth vehicle for the next decade.
Critical minerals: where government policy is now as important as geology
Of all the drivers reshaping Australia’s mining sector in 2026, none have been as consequential — or as complex — as government intervention in the critical minerals space.
Critical minerals — a broad category encompassing lithium, rare earth elements, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, antimony, manganese, and other materials essential to clean energy technologies and defence applications — have been a stated priority for Australian policy since at least 2022. But in 2025 and 2026, that commitment shifted from aspiration to funded programs.
The key policy commitments
| Initiative | Commitment | Focus |
| Resourcing Australia’s Prosperity | $3.4 billion over 35 years ($566.1 million in first decade) | Geoscience data, exploration support, national mapping |
| Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve | $1.2 billion | Stockpile of strategic minerals for allied-nation supply security |
| US–Australia Critical Minerals Framework | US$1 billion in bilateral financing | Supply chain diversification, rare earths, defence minerals |
| Future Made in Australia | Integrated industrial policy | Downstream processing, domestic value-add manufacturing |
Sources: Dept. of Industry Science and Resources; Austrade; US–Australia Mining, Minerals and Metals Investment Ministerial communiqué, Tokyo, April 2026.
The US–Australia Critical Minerals Framework, signed by Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump in October 2025 and further advanced at the inaugural Mining, Minerals and Metals Investment Ministerial in Tokyo in March 2026, is particularly significant.
It represents a structural commitment by the world’s largest economy to source critical minerals from Australia rather than from China, which currently controls around 60–70% of global rare earth processing.
For Australian miners and explorers, this is not just diplomacy. It is a potential source of offtake agreements, direct investment, and government-backed financing that could make the difference between a project proceeding and remaining stranded on a Feasibility Study shelf.
Lithium: recovering from the price crash
Lithium is the critical mineral with the most complicated near-term story.
After the extraordinary price surge of 2022–23 — when spodumene concentrate briefly traded above US$8,000 per tonne — the market corrected sharply through 2024 as Chinese battery production outpaced EV demand growth and new supply flooded the market.
The correction hit Australian lithium producers hard: BHP wrote down its Nickel West assets, several projects were placed on care and maintenance, and junior explorers found equity capital drying up.
The outlook for 2026 and beyond is more constructive, though still cautious. DISR forecasts Australian lithium export earnings to recover from $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to $6.8 billion in 2026–27, as prices gradually stabilise.
Global lithium demand is forecast to grow at almost 15% per annum to 2027, driven by EV adoption and battery energy storage deployment — but oversupply is not expected to fully clear in the short term.
The long-term case for Australian lithium remains intact; the question is timing.
Rare earths and the diversification opportunity
Rare earth elements represent perhaps the most strategically interesting part of Australia’s critical minerals story.
China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is exactly why Western governments are building alternative supply chains.
Australia has world-class rare earth deposits, led by Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) — the only significant producer of separated rare earths outside China — and a growing development pipeline.
DISR forecasts critical mineral exports other than lithium will nearly triple from $2 billion in 2024–25 to $5 billion by 2026–27. That growth reflects both commodity demand and the policy tailwinds now actively supporting sector development.
Iron ore: still the engine room, but facing structural headwinds
No discussion of Australian mining is complete without iron ore, which remains the largest single commodity in the export mix — expected to account for roughly one quarter of all resource and energy commodity earnings over the 2025–26 outlook period.
But the iron ore story heading into 2026 is one of disciplined management rather than growth. Prices are expected to soften from US$93 per tonne (FOB) in 2024 to around US$85–87 per tonne in 2026, as new supply from Africa — particularly Guinea’s Simandou project — begins entering the seaborne market and Chinese steel demand growth moderates.
Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to fall from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $107 billion in 2026–27.
What the capital markets are actually doing
One of the most reliable indicators of whether a boom is real or imagined is what sophisticated capital is actually doing — not what it is saying in press releases.
The picture in 2026 is mixed in an instructive way. Equity capital is available, but far more selective than in the 2000s cycle. Debt has returned as a central funding tool, often through specialised lenders and royalty-and-streaming arrangements, rather than traditional bank finance.
Brownfield expansions are being funded: large greenfield projects in remote locations with complex permitting requirements are finding it harder.
Mining Equipment, Technology and Services (METS) companies — the contractors, equipment suppliers, and technology providers that serve the sector — are a useful leading indicator of real activity.
NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) reported a 12.2% increase in annual revenue to approximately $3.3 billion in FY2025, with a strong $6.1 billion order book heading into FY2026. Mader Group (ASX:MAD) recorded $872 million in FY2025 revenue — up 13% year-on-year.
When the companies that build and maintain the mines are this busy, the underlying activity is genuine.
Risks that could derail the outlook
Any honest analysis of the 2026 mining outlook has to grapple seriously with the downside risks. There are several worth watching.
Global trade tension and tariff uncertainty
Australia’s resource sector is deeply exposed to global trade flows, and the tariff environment of 2025 created genuine uncertainty.
While BMI forecasts easing trade tensions as a tailwind for Australian mining in 2026, the situation remains fluid. Any escalation in US-China trade barriers or retaliatory measures from Beijing directed at Australian commodity imports could quickly suppress demand signals for iron ore, LNG, and coal.
A genuine de-escalation of geopolitical tension could also soften safe-haven demand and pressure the gold price.
Capital expenditure hasn’t caught up with the rhetoric
There is a meaningful gap between the policy ambition around critical minerals and the capital actually being committed to building mines and processing facilities.
Deloitte’s Tracking the Trends 2026 notes that higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, and project complexity are keeping actual capital expenditure subdued relative to the policy narrative.
Government support is real money, but it cannot substitute for private-sector project finance at scale.
Chinese demand moderation
China remains the dominant buyer of most Australian commodities, even as Western supply chain diversification efforts gather pace.
Any meaningful slowdown in Chinese economic activity — including the ongoing weakness in China’s property sector, which directly affects steel and therefore iron ore demand — creates downside risk for the bulk of Australia’s export earnings.
DISR’s forecasts already incorporate a cautious view of Chinese growth, but a sharper-than-expected slowdown remains one of the more significant tail risks.
Permitting delays
Australia has a well-earned reputation as a stable, low-risk mining jurisdiction. But permitting complexity — particularly for greenfield projects in environmentally sensitive areas or on land with Native Title implications — remains a genuine constraint on how quickly the sector can respond to price signals.
The Minerals Council of Australia has consistently argued that streamlined regulations are as important as commodity prices in determining whether Australia capitalises on the current upcycle.
So, boom or not?
The honest verdict is this: Australia is not in a mining boom in the 2000s sense of the word, and it is unlikely to enter one in 2026.
The conditions that defined that cycle — a single massive buyer, two dominant commodities, and capital expenditure flooding in at rates that transformed the national economy — are not present.
What is present is something arguably more durable: a broad-based strengthening across multiple commodities, underpinned by structural demand drivers that are unlikely to reverse.
Gold is at record highs for fundamental reasons. Copper demand from electrification is not a cyclical story — it is a multi-decade infrastructure requirement. Critical minerals have moved from a policy aspiration to a funded government priority with international backing.
Commodity-by-commodity verdict for 2026
| Commodity | 2026 outlook | Key driver | Key risk |
| Gold | Strong — record earnings forecast | Safe-haven demand, central bank buying | Monetary easing slows price support |
| Copper | Strong — record prices, rising exports | Electrification, supply constraints | Demand shock from China slowdown |
| Lithium | Recovering — not yet strong | EV growth, battery storage | Oversupply persisting into 2026 |
| Iron ore | Stable, softening prices | Chinese steel output, volume discipline | African supply, China property sector |
| Rare earths | Growing — policy-backed | US–Aus framework, supply chain security | Processing capacity bottlenecks |
| Nickel | Weak — oversupplied | None near term | Indonesian supply surplus |
| Met coal | Stable — flat pricing | Asian steel demand | Demand forecast revision |
BMI put it well in its early 2026 outlook: while it may be too early to declare a full-scale mining boom, the indicators suggest 2026 could be a defining year for the sector — driven by critical minerals, copper, and gold, rather than traditional bulk commodities alone.
Oxford Economics adds a further nuance: from a secular perspective, the broader commodity complex remains undervalued in real terms, with prices showing only modest nominal gains over the past three years.
That is not the hallmark of a bubble. It is the hallmark of a durable, measured upcycle.
Summary
Australia’s mining sector enters the second half of 2026 in better shape than it has been for several years — but not in the breathless, front-page-news way of the 2000s.
The commodities driving growth have changed. Capital allocation discipline is higher. The policy environment is more engaged, for better and for worse. And the risks — from trade tension, permitting delays, and commodity-specific oversupply — are real and should not be glossed over.
What 2026 is shaping up to be is the beginning of a different kind of resources cycle: one built on the materials the world needs to decarbonise, managed by an industry that has learned from the excesses of the last boom, and backed by government policy that finally seems to understand the strategic value of what sits beneath Australian soil.
Whether that becomes a boom in the fullest sense will depend on how quickly the sector can move from intention to execution — from permitting and processing capacity to attracting the long-term capital that only flows to jurisdictions where the rules are clear and consistently applied.
On current evidence, Australia has the assets and the policy intent. The execution is what 2026 and beyond will be judged on.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should seek independent advice before making investment decisions.
