Gold could be heading for another leg higher, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the precious metal to reach US$4,900 ($6,800) an ounce by the end of 2026.
According to Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, gold is projected to extend its recent gains in H2 2026, even as growing use of some derivatives tied to the metal could be making gold prices more volatile.
“We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks, consistent with recent survey evidence,” Thomas and Struyven says.
Goldman Sachs also expects central banks to purchase an average of 50 tonnes of gold a month this year, which is well above the 17-tonne average recorded before 2022.
At the time of writing, gold’s price sat at US$4,483 an ounce after rising for two consecutive sessions, as dovish comments from Federal Reserve Christopher Waller led markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike.
Over the past month, gold’s price has risen 5.36%, and is up 24.56% compared to the same time last year, according to Trading Economics.
For the gold mining sector, a sustained push towards US$4,900 an ounce could be of importance. Every additional dollar added to the gold price has the potential to flow directly through to miners’ top lines, strengthening margins and improving project economics.
Exploration
This price forecast increase creates a favourable environment, not only for established gold producers, but for developers, and explorers as well — potentially turning a rising bullion price into a broader catalyst for the gold mining pipeline.
With Goldman Sachs’ forecast pointing to further upside, gold-focused mining companies could be among the key beneficiaries if the precious metal continues a record-breaking run.
For companies such as Alice Queen (ASX:AQX), the higher price environment provides an encouraging backdrop as it advances a portfolio of gold and copper-gold opportunities across Australia and Fiji.
The company’s Horn Island Project in Queensland already hosts a 524,000-ounce gold resource, while Alice Queen is also progressing exploration at the Boda East and Mendooran projects in the Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales, and gold prospects in Fiji.
Late last week, Alice Queen agreed to sell its non-core New South Wales exploration licence to Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) for $900,000 cash.
The divestment allows the company to focus resources on Horn Island, where drilling took place in mid-August targeting high-grade gold mineralisation, while also testing exploration targets.
Managing Director Andrew Buxton says the Horn Island Project has “significant growth potential”, which the company is targeting through this drilling campaign.
“The drilling is designed to build on our existing resource and test the broader exploration target areas, where we see strong potential to add high-grade ounces across multiple styles of mineralisation,” Buxton says.
“Importantly, the program will be undertaken alongside our development work, with the results feeding directly into ongoing Feasibility Study work and helping shape the future of the Horn Island Project.
“The more we can grow the resource base, the stronger the foundation we will establish for project development.”
Gold prices at elevated levels can be important for explorers because a stronger commodity price can increase the potential value of discoveries and improve the prospects of projects moving from exploration towards development.
Development
Across the Pacific, Element79 Gold (CSE:ELEM) is advancing the Lucero Project in Peru, which is a past-producing gold and silver mine covering a 10.805-hectare area.
During its past years of commercial operations between 1998 and 2005, reported annual production averaged 20,000 ounces of gold and 435,000 ounces of silver.
In August, Element79 restructured the remaining payments related to the Lucero Project acquisition with Condor Resources (TSX-V:CN).
This new agreement is designed to resolve the payment, which Element79 subsequently missed. Instead, the company has agreed to pay a US$100,000 non-refundable deposit and a US$1 million payment at the closing date, targeted for the end of this month.
CEO Michael Smith says that the company has a clear, defined path forward on the remaining acquisition obligations at Lucero.
“Lucero remains an important asset for Element79, and resolving the legacy payment structure removes a significant overhang as we determine the right way to advance it,” Smith says.
For Element79, a higher gold price could improve the backdrop for a restart by increasing the potential value of future production while simultaneously making further resource development and exploration more attractive.
Production
North Bay Resources (OTC:NBRI) offers another angle on the gold price story, with the company combining exploration and development with its ownership of the Bishop Gold Mill in California.
The company’s Fran Gold Project in British Columbia, Canada has a non-independent resource estimate of around 474,000 ounces, while ‘high-grade’ material has been shipped to the company’s mill for processing.
That integrated approach could become valuable in high gold price environments, as North Bay has the ability to pair gold resources with processing infrastructure rather than relying solely on the discovery and delineating of ounces.
Further up the production curve is Orezone Gold (TSX:ORE), which owns 85% of the operating Bomboré Gold Mine in Burkina Faso.
Bomboré produced 110,014 ounces of gold in FY2025. The mine now has a combined production between 160,000 and 180,000 ounces during 2026. Orezone is advancing the stage two hard rock expansion, which is forecast to increase annual production to 220,000–250,000 ounces.
Recently, the company demonstrated growth potential at Bomboré, after drill results highlighted multiple zones across a 14km-long reserve-defined gold system.
CEO Patrick Downey says the latest results confirm the continuity of gold mineralisation beyond the current resources and reserves.
“Step-out drilling continues to highlight significant exploration upside along strike, demonstrated by follow-up drilling at P16 that confirmed the zone’s 600m strike extension and its overall sub-parallel orientation to the P17 high-grade trend,” Downey says.
“As with P17, the emerging P16 trend hosts notably higher grade zones within a broader envelope of lower grade mineralisation. Ongoing structural studies and future exploration drilling will focus on refining the controls and continuity of these higher grade zones, which are potentially amenable to underground mining and could significantly enhance the production profile.”
For an operating producer such as Orezone, the relationship with the gold price is more direct. Higher realised prices can translate into stronger revenue and potentially wider margins.
Together, these companies illustrate why Goldman Sach’s gold price outlook extends beyond bullion markets. A gold price approaching US$4,900 an ounce could strengthen the economics of existing mines, improve the development case for advanced projects, and increase the value attached to exploration.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock & Element79 Gold
