China’s exports are expected to slow in the short term due to rising energy prices and the supply disruptions from the war in the Middle East. However, Goldman Sachs Research sees medium-term strength driven by China’s dominance across solar power, batteries, and electric vehicles — the ‘new three’ green technologies.
“While the near-term outlook for China’s exports may be weighted down by energy-driven demand headwinds, the same shock could accelerate the global push for energy security, creating a more supportive backdrop in the medium term,” Chelsea Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs Research, notes.
Goldman Sachs Research predicts China’s real GDP growth to decline to 4% in the second quarter, down from 5.3% in the prior quarter. The ongoing trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are a key factor, disrupting oil flows, raising global energy prices, and dampening demand from key Chinese trading partners.
Hui Shan, Chief China economist at Goldman Sachs Research, notes a significant disparity between China’s export sector and domestic consumption. The spread has widened this year as export values jumped 14.7% year-over-year in the first quarter, while property and auto sales declined in the double digits.
The report notes rising fears of stagflation among some of China’s key trading partners, with emerging market economies accounting for over half of China’s nominal exports in 2025.
“Some of these economies, particularly in Asia, are disproportionately vulnerable to energy shocks due to their high exposure to oil and gas supply disruptions,” Song says.
Green energy technologies lead the way
The report notes that China’s leadership in green energy technologies is a potential tailwind for the country’s exports, as investment into electrification and renewables is rising.
Goldman Sachs Research notes that China accounted for around 86% of global solar module production, 80% of lithium-ion battery production, and 68% of EV production in 2024, with these “new three” sectors accounting for around 4% of Chinese nominal exports.
The report notes that to date, Europe has been a top destination for these exports. However, there is potential for a broader rise in global demand, especially in Asia, where energy-dependent economies may benefit from accelerating their adoption of renewables and electrification.
Write to Amy Rotman at Mining.com.au
Images: Unsplash, Goldman Sachs Research
