Few areas of the mining sector attract as much political attention as critical minerals. Lithium, rare earths, nickel, graphite and other strategic materials have been elevated from niche commodities to matters of national interest, economic security, and geopolitical positioning.
Mining.com.au’s reporting repeatedly highlights how government involvement in the critical minerals sector is intensifying — not retreating. From strategic stockpiling rhetoric to funding frameworks and supply chain ambitions, policy has become a central force shaping project outcomes.
As the industry looks toward 2026 and beyond, the key question is no longer whether certain countries have the resources, it is whether policy settings can convert geological advantage into sustained commercial success — without distorting capital allocation or crowding out private investment.
The answer will define the next phase of the global mining industry.
The language surrounding critical minerals has shifted markedly in recent years. There has been a growing emphasis placed by federal policymakers on “sovereign capability”, “supply chain resilience”, and “strategic stockpiles”.
This is not accidental. Critical minerals sit at the intersection of energy transition goals, defence supply chains, and international trade dynamics. Governments are increasingly unwilling to leave their development entirely to market forces — particularly when global competition for supply is intensifying.
In 2026, government intervention in critical minerals is likely to be structural rather than temporary. The challenge will be ensuring that this intervention supports viable projects rather than sustaining marginal ones.
However, as global investment research firm Alpine Macro identifies in its 2026 Commodty Outlook report, the recent surge in precious metals raises concerns that commodities may now be overvalued. Yet from a secular perspective, the broader commodity complex remains far from expensive.
Indeed, it is still deeply undervalued, Alpine Macro notes.
“Broad commodity prices have seen only modest nominal gains over the past three years, following their recovery from pandemic-era lows. In real terms – adjusted for US CPI inflation – prices across the broad commodity complex have been essentially unchanged, while real energy prices have declined by roughly 7% over this period and over 25% from their mid-2022 peak.”
“This raises the central question: Are we at the early stage of a broad-based commodity upturn, or will the complex remain mired in a long-term bear market despite the recent rally in precious metals? We believe the former is more likely – albeit in a form that differs materially from past major upswings.
“In the 1970s, dollar weakness and geopolitical shocks fueled a broad-based commodities surge, while in the 2000s, China’s rapid industrialisation and urbanization drove massive demand for energy and industrial metals. By contrast, today’s emerging cycle appears rooted in more diverse, structurally driven demand forces. Foremost among these drivers is the global energy transition.”
According to Alpine Macro, an Oxford Economics company, it will generate sustained demand for commodities, particularly metals and minerals critical for electrification and renewable energy infrastructure.
“This reflects the significantly higher material intensity of green energy systems relative to conventional fossil fuel technologies.”
Overall mineral and metal demand is projected to nearly double by 2030, with continued growth thereafter. Under the International Energy Agency (IEA) net zero emissions scenario, accelerated adoption of clean energy technologies would drive an even sharper increase in critical mineral and metal demand – some 2.5x current levels by 2030 and 3.5x current levels by 2050.
“The combination of structurally rising demand and constrained supply suggests that the conditions for a new commodity upcycle may already be taking shape. While uncertainties remain, current valuations indicate that the commodity complex is far from pricing in such a shift,” Alpine Macro continues.
Global upcycle flagged
As such, Alpine Macro projects 2026 could mark the beginning of a new upcycle in global commodity markets, driven by structurally rising demand, constrained supply, and evolving price relationships across asset classes.
In its 2026 Commodty Outlook report, Alpine Macro identifies four key themes poised to shape commodity markets and price dynamics in the year ahead and beyond. The outlook points to signs that the foundations for a renewed commodity bull phase are already forming.
Alpine Macro’s Commodity and Energy Strategist and author of the report Kelly Xu sees strong evidence that a new commodity upcycle is taking shape as structural demand growth collides with tightening supply conditions.
“This combination creates the potential for sustained price strength across major commodities, even in an environment of moderate global growth,” says Xu.
A notable feature of the evolving landscape is sectoral rotation within the broader upturn. As the report outlines, industrial metals are expected to outperform precious metals in H2 2026, reflecting both cyclical and structural tailwinds. cyclical recoveries in manufacturing and infrastructure investment.
“Industrial metals are entering a sweet spot,” Xu adds.
“As global investment in green technologies, electrification, and infrastructure accelerates, we expect these materials to gain momentum relative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.”
Saudi systematic exploration
Alpine Macro’s outlook comes as Saudi Arabia has unveiled one of the most significant mineral discoveries in modern times. The Kingdom’s systematic exploration of 650,000km2 reveals mineral wealth worth more than US$2.4 trillion.
The discovery follows Saudi Arabia implementing a new Mining Investment Law that provides a legal framework to support a clear, transparent process for mining license applications and approvals.
The law came into effect on 1 January 2021. The Saudi Government has been issuing and renewing mining licenses through the Ministry mining electronic platform ever since.
More than 2,000 mining contracts have been awarded since 2016 and 24 companies have been awarded mining licenses in the ninth round of submissions.
The aforementioned geological assessment represents a fundamental shift in global resource distribution. Everything from base to precious metals, energy transition minerals and rare earths has been discovered. specialised industrial minerals.
Saudi Deputy Minister Khalid Al-Mudaifer confirms discoveries occur in areas outside traditional mining belts with mineral endowment in some unexpected areas.
The Kingdom’s strategic location between Asian and European markets positions it as a potential major supplier for critical materials. Over 2,000 mining contracts to local and foreign companies demonstrate sustained international confidence.
These discoveries support Vision 2030‘s economic diversification objectives while potentially moderating global critical mineral pricing through increased production capacity.
On day one of the Future Minerals Forum (FMF) today (13 January) during the Ministerial Roundtable (pictured above), the Saudi Government notes its focus is on ensuring there is local value maximisation across multiple industries that will aid in long lasting value.
There was a clear call for governments and businesses to “come together” with one common global cause in order to “accelerate mineral supply, ensure benefits, reach communities while providing jobs for many young people”.
FMF26 is being held this week from 13-15 January. Mining.com.au has a team on the floor at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Centre in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and is also an official media partner.
Australia ‘encouraged’ by export data
Australian government officials – like most of the rest of the world – are attending FMF26. Their presence comes as economists are encouraged by a better-than-expected picture of Australia’s mining and energy exports.
The renewed confidence follows iron ore exports that surpassed forecasts with Australia’s pipeline of upcoming projects settling in at $62 billion.
The Office of the Chief Economist’s broader industry view is one of weaker global growth, which it says is putting the brakes on commodity sales more generally. Yet the resilience in the price of the country’s largest export and an ever rising gold price is helping Australia’s bottom line.
Meanwhile, the number of projects being developed across Australia is now 432, up from 407 at the end of October 2025. Western Australia has the most projects in development at almost 200 with Queensland in second place with about half that number.
However, the value of said projects has dropped from $3 billion to $62 billion and sales are forecasted to fall by $2 billion to $114 billion in 2025-26 and to $107 billion in 2026-27.
Acting Minister for Resources Tim Ayres says these latest figures reinforce the notion that Australia is a “trusted, reliable supplier” of resources and energy to the world, despite global challenges.
Meanwhile, the US Government is investing almost $1 billion to break China’s stranglehold on rare earths downstream processing and REE magnet production.
China controls as much as 90% of the world’s REE magnet manufacturing, with the US facing increasing vulnerability that affects everything from military equipment to F-35 fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Under the Trump administration, America is accelerating domestic capacity as it currently has no domestic commercial-scale rare earth separation facilities. Each F-35 aircraft alone is estimated to require more than 500 permanent magnets and military spending is ramping up.
Shifting market dynamics
Market dynamics are shifting at a rapid pace and investment opportunities are emerging across integrated REEs processing facilities.
As regular coverage by this news service has shown, there is tension at the heart of global critical minerals policy – strategic importance does not guarantee economic viability.
Many critical minerals projects face high capital intensity, complex metallurgy, and limited processing infrastructure. While government grants, loans, and incentives can de-risk certain stages of development, they cannot eliminate fundamental cost structures.
In 2026, projects that rely solely on policy backing without clear pathways to commercial markets may struggle to succeed. Investors remain focused on margins, execution risk, and long-term demand visibility.
The projects most likely to advance are those that combine strategic relevance with credible economics — not those propped up indefinitely by public funding.
A recurring theme is the ambition to move beyond raw material exports and develop domestic processing capability. For critical minerals, this ambition is particularly pronounced. Governments see value-adding as a way to capture more economic benefit, reduce reliance on foreign processing hubs, and strengthen supply chain control.
Yet processing remains one of the sector’s biggest challenges. It is capital-intensive, technically demanding, and often less competitive than established overseas alternatives.
As 2026 unfolds, progress in domestic processing is likely to be incremental rather than transformative. Select projects with scale, infrastructure access, and technical expertise may succeed — but broad-based onshoring is unlikely without sustained policy and market alignment.
Public capital is playing an increasingly visible role in critical minerals development. The effectiveness of government capital will be judged by its ability to crowd in private funding, not crowd it out. Co-investment models, loan guarantees, and targeted risk-sharing arrangements are more likely to succeed than blanket subsidies.
Where governments act as partners rather than patrons, projects stand a better chance of reaching commercial reality.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: FMF26, Regional Development Authority & Mining.com.au
