The global hunt for the raw materials needed for the electrification revolution is colliding with geopolitics, new disclosure rules, tighter capital discipline, and advancing technologies.
The end of this decade is just five years away. A lot can happen in five years. Depending on the asset and commodity, with a lot of luck, a mining company could make a discovery and start transitioning towards a pathway to production in that time.
In the outlook period to 2030, industry sources detail to Mining.com.au there are five overarching forces that stand out. A reshuffling of battery metal demand; an impending copper squeeze; policy-driven rewiring of supply chains; a reset in mining finance; and a pivot towards nature and climate-linked disclosure will shape the global resources landscape.
Nuclear’s role in the power sector amid decarbonisation efforts is also rising again. Although whether uranium’s rally converts into mine restarts and new builds across the fuel cycle remains uncertain.
This feature series unveils how these scenarios are likely to play out – and what to watch next. Mining.com.au speaks to company executives, investment management firms, dealmakers, and market insiders on what will be driving mining over these coming five years.
Expect a ‘quality over quantity’ approach to growth. This means activity in tier-one jurisdictions like Australia and North America offering lowest-quartile cost curves, more streaming/royalty and structured offtake finance for juniors, and ongoing portfolio pruning by the majors.
PwC: ‘Collaboration is key’
After two boom-like years, 2024 was tougher for diversified mining companies. Global advisory firm PwC’s Mine 2025 shows last year was a challenging one for miners except for gold miners. The top 40 global resources companies (excluding gold-focused) saw revenues decline 3% and EBITDA down 10%.
PwC believes the profile of mining investors is set to evolve substantially by 2035. Shifting market dynamics and diversifying investor composition is expected with future investors to include those not currently active in the mining space.
Resource nationalism is taking precedence over optimised supply chains in a geopolitically risky world. Yet PwC does not believe the current drive for security of supply will be reversed by 2035.
Regardless of how events unfold in the coming decade, PwC notes one thing is clear – “collaboration will be the order of the day” – in 2025, in 2030, and in 2035.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, PwC Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader Kerryl Bradshaw says collaboration opportunities are present everywhere, adding the current political environment, US tariffs, and nationalistic agendas are driving changes.
For example, the federal government’s $1.2 billion in the Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve seeks to drive investment in commodities coming out of Australia in terms of critical minerals.
“But really what we’ve got is the (US) tariffs have driven change, and they have absolutely made people think about what and where they need to invest their dollars and where around the world that needs to be,” Bradshaw tells this news service.
“We are seeing changes driven by the tariffs as to where the money is being invested, whether they’re expecting to invest in the US, or whether it’s for geopolitical turmoil reasons and wanting to have diversification of supply chains.
“But whether it be Europe or whether it be Asia, investment patterns have been changing over the last six months.”
“Capital is flowing into those companies with US-centric assets in terms of investor appetite”
Peak Asset Management Executive Director Niv Dagan agrees. Dagan believes North America is becoming one of the most active regions. Investor interest in companies with US-based assets in particular will continue over the outlook period to 2030.
“I think capital is flowing into those companies with US-centric assets in terms of investor appetite,” Dagan tells Mining.com.au.
There are a number of transactions in the pipeline into the US particularly around critical minerals “and the whole region’s really excited”.
“I just think that investors are really backing that thematic at the moment across a multitude of commodities,” Dagan says, noting antimony, gold, gallium, PGMs, and rare earths are just some of the materials his firm is monitoring.
“It is commodity agnostic across the US,” Peak’s Executive Director continues.
US investor interest
As a recent example, Terra Uranium (ASX:T92), of which Dagan is a director, in late August expanded its agreement with exploration services company Axiom Group to target rare earth element assets in the US.
This strategic move builds upon their existing collaboration in Canadian uranium exploration dating back to October 2024, when Terra Uranium signed option agreements over various assets with ATHA Energy.
“That partnership really expands into identifying opportunities for activity assets across the US,” Dagan adds.
Critical minerals where China has a strong stranglehold on the supply chain will continue to do well leading into 2030, he adds. These include antimony, gallium, germanium, magnesium, platinum, rare earths, titanium, and tungsten.
Antimony in particular is emerging. Such is the appetite for antimony and for assets in North America, Trigg Mining (ASX:TMG), proposes changing its name to American Antimony and Tungsten to better reflect its US focus.
GTI Energy (ASX:GTR) has already changed its name to American Uranium as part of a commitment to expanding its US uranium footprint.
The company has been strategically positioned in the US since 2019, leveraging in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium mining to help strengthen America’s uranium independence.
As reported, the new name closely aligns with the company’s historical and future focus on developing its uranium portfolio in the US as nuclear renaissance gathers pace and the domestic uranium mining sector continues its revival.
Meanwhile Felix Gold (ASX:FXG) is advancing its flagship Treasure Creek Antimony Project in Alaska. Speaking to Mining.com.au, Executive Director Joe Webb says recent high-grade antimony mineralisation is a pivotal step as Felix assesses the near-term viability of production at Treasure Creek.
Webb says the company is building on earlier exploration success and recent results support Felix Gold’s strategy of evaluating a pathway to establish a US supply of military-grade antimony.
Locksley Resources (ASX:LKY) is also taking advantage of this emerging trend of investors seeking US-centric assets.
The company is developing the Mojave Antimony and Rare Earths Project in California, just 1.4km from the Mountain Pass mine – the only active rare earths mine in the US.
Locksley will be listing on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange to enable greater access to European investors as part of the company’s US-focused rare earth and antimony exploration strategy.
A North America-focused emerging graphite miner is Graphite One (TSX-V:GPH), which is developing its Graphite Creek Project to production to boost the US graphite supply chain.
The company has completed its coordinated project plan process following its listing of its project in Alaska on the FAST-41 Dashboard.
FAST-41 aims to improve the timeliness, predictability, and transparency of federal environmental review and authorisation processes for covered infrastructure projects.
While the nickel market has been subdued, Canadian company Fathom Nickel (CSE:FNI) is an explorer active in the space. There have been no large-scale, high-grade nickel discoveries in North America since Voisey’s Bay in 1996, which is owned by Vale (NYSE:VALE).
Fathom Nickel owns three properties collectively spanning a strike of roughly 100km in a north-northeast direction within an area of 1,340km2.
Ian Fraser, CEO and Vice President, says while nickel is the primary focus, Fathom Nickel is fortunate it has copper, cobalt and “high-grade” platinum and palladium, along with the other four platinum group elements (PGEs), plus gold and silver at its Albert Lake Project.
Also in North America, Skyharbour Resources (TSX-V:SYH) has a goal to build a diversified portfolio where it could advance the most prospective projects that host known high-grade uranium mineralisation and deposits while partnering out other properties through a prospect generator model.
The company has spent the past decade building up its portfolio of projects in one of the world’s uranium hotspots, starting when the price of the nuclear fuel was near historic lows.
CEO Jordan Trimble tells Mining.com.au that back then most investors and companies were not paying attention to the sector. However, the company saw that as a contrarian opportunity.
“We started acquiring highly prospective ground in the Athabasca Basin for pennies on the dollar, taking a long-term view that the cycle would eventually turn,” Trimble says.
“Over time, we steadily built up one of the largest portfolios in the region, now sitting at 37 projects covering more than 616,000 hectares (>1.5 million acres).”
Policy rewiring supply chains
Global policy changes are helping drive these emerging investment patterns. Western countries are seeking to drive capital inflows back into mining and infrastructure to build supply chains currently dominated by China.
In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act toolkit is being used to onshore midstream pieces of the battery chain, including conditional commitments for Redwood Materials (battery materials) and Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass Project.
These are part of growing concessional debt crowding in private capital for critical minerals.
Tech giant Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) increased US$600 billion investment in August is the latest sign the US is seeking to develop its side of the supply chain to make its own products, from silicon chips to rare earth magnets.
Apple increased its previous commitment by US$100 billion to accelerate its US investment, which now includes the new American Manufacturing Program, as reported.
The investment includes new and expanded work with 10 companies across America. About two thirds of the Apple parts and components manufactured in the US are exported. Apple partners with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states, supporting more than 450,000 supplier and partner jobs.
Policy changes including the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) benchmarks and China’s export permits are poised to keep driving offtake deals, joint ventures, and friend-shoring of processing agreements.
With nationalistic approaches expected to remain for some time, the next few years will see more state-backed project finance and bilateral supply deals.
EU demand for rare earth metals is expected to increase 6x by 2030 and 7x by 2050. For lithium, EU demand is expected to increase 12x by 2030 and 21x by 2050.
The European Union’s CRMA locks in 2030 targets. These include at least 10% of the union’s annual consumption extracted domestically; 40% processed in the EU; and 25% sourced from recycling. There is also a cap of no more than 65% of any strategic raw material at any stage to come from a single third country.
As such, EU-backed strategic projects, recycling build-outs, and more EU-third country partnerships are expected by 2030 to meet the benchmarks.
Meanwhile, China continues exerting leverage via export permits and technology controls. This includes graphite permitting rules in 2023 to rare earth magnet export licensing in 2025.
Industry sources say this is keeping supply chain risk premia elevated for sectors delivering decarbonisation such as heavy magnets, wind turbines, and EVs.
“The resources industry is the engine room of this nation and all states and territories are determined to ensure it continues to provide for future generations of Australians”
Australia’s Resources Minister Madeleine King says federal, state, and territory governments are committed to creating secure supply chains by building sovereign processing, refining and smelting capability in Australia.
“The resources industry is the engine room of this nation and all states and territories are determined to ensure it continues to provide for future generations of Australians,” King says.
“States and territories are working together to ensure the industry continues to create new jobs and wealth for all.”
Minister King recently held a roundtable to update ministers on policies and to seek input into ways governments can ensure the sector remains strong.
PwC’s Bradshaw sees a lot of positive signs the Australian Government’s moves are helping drive investment into Australia to set up another geographic region to supply those critical minerals into.
“Everything has been pushing in that direction, but it all starts with demand. The demand is getting there with the technological and defence side. But it’s the supply (that is needed),” PwC’s Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader continues.
Peak Asset’s Dagan believes to this end, resources infrastructure spending in Western countries will ramp up to 2030 as nations mitigate against reliance on China, which as mentioned, dominates the critical minerals supply chain.
Specialist mining investment company Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) diversifies its exposure across various resources to balance and manage risk.
With global demand for raw materials projected to rise, Managing Director Hedley Widdup tells this news service the ASX remains a key destination for investors aiming to capitalise on Australia’s resource wealth.
Lion invests at an early stage to assist resource companies along the development curve, selecting juniors with potential to experience a positive value re-rating as they progress from explorer to producer.
A year ago the Lion Investment Clock was adjusted to place the mining cycle smack bang on the ‘mergers’ phase with the clock ticking towards ‘cash takeovers’ and ‘boom’ just on the horizon.
The cycle tracker is a patented mining clock and is central to Lion’s investment strategy. The mining sector has ticked past ‘declining exploration’ and is in a period of mergers before ticking towards cash takeovers, and eventually new floats with a boom on the cards.
In part two of this series, Mining.com.au delves deeper into the collaboration and partnership opportunities being created, how battery metals are changing shape, and why copper remains the highest-conviction transition metal heading into 2030.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: Apple, Terra Uranium, Stock & Mining.com.au
