Lithium is enduring its most misunderstood moment in years. Prices have collapsed since the 2022 peak, investor sentiment is bruised, and there are persistent murmurs of an EV slowdown. Yet those closest to the ground – the explorers, developers, and future producers – are saying something very different.
According to global leaders across the sector, the world is sleepwalking into the largest structural supply deficit in the history of battery metals. And this time, the demand drivers go far beyond electric vehicles.
Mining.com.au is this week digging deep into the state of the lithium market and in a feature series that uncovers how mining leaders see the outlook to 2030 and beyond, and what the catalysts will be driving the market.
Speaking exclusively to a range of global lithium leaders, a powerful consensus is emerging – the lithium market is not dying, it’s maturing. And the next decade is poised to dwarf everything that has come before.
The global lithium market is in a period of flux. After years of solid growth, prices have plummeted from the 2022 peak amid reports of declining demand for EVs and an oversupply.
However, ongoing demand growth and temporary production curtailments in China has seen lithium prices improve so far in the September quarter. Spodumene concentrate prices increased from just above US$600 a tonne in June, reached US$1,000 tonne in late August, before easing to around US$820 a tonne in the second half of September.
Although this price recovery may be under threat from the reported reopening of a higher cost lepidolite operation in China on 10 September 2025.
Lithium hydroxide prices have enjoyed a recovery of almost 20% over the same period, rising from US$7,550 a tonne to around US$9,000 ($13,835) in September. The rise follows a recovery in spodumene prices – the primary feedstock for these operations refineries – with refiners starting to draw down on their accumulated inventories.
By 2027, spodumene is expected to rise to an annual average price of about US$925 a tonne, while lithium hydroxide should average about US$13,250.
Australia is the largest producer of lithium ore (accounting for 46% of the global total in 2024) but felt this decline more sharply than most. In turn several mining operations paused amid deteriorating market conditions.
However, analysts and mining executives alike believe a rebound may be on the horizon, fuelled by renewed growth in EV adoption and clean energy storage. Although lithium prices remain difficult to predict, miners are once more betting big on the metal.
‘Dark horse’ of demand
Venari Minerals (ASX:ASE) CEO Matt Healy is blunt – global lithium demand will triple by 2030, yet the current market is acting like the party’s over.
“The price collapse created the illusion that supply is abundant,” he tells Mining.com.au, “but even a minor disruption like recent mine shutdowns in China sent prices bouncing back. That tells you the market is far tighter than people think.”
Healy notes a critical fact that many overlook is that the world needs 50 to 70 new lithium mines by 2030 just to meet demand.
“This represents around double the number of significant mines in operation today,” he says. “That is a near-impossible task at current investment levels.”
EVs will constitute the main source of lithium consumption going forward, notes Healy, with increasing growth in consumption rates arising from stationary storage, electric trucks, and buses.
Further driving this growth, says Healy, is the rapid penetration of renewable energy into Western energy markets, which has resulted in excess electricity necessitating storage technology.
For this reason global Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) deployments in H1 2025 are up 58% over the first six months of 2024, making BESS the “dark horse” of lithium demand, he adds.
According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly, BESS growth is expected to be at almost 13% a year to 2027 driven primarily by its increasingly important role in electricity grids.
BESS are now also supplying electricity during high demand periods in addition to their existing role in providing grid auxiliary services.
Healy’s own focus is advancing Venari’s resource pipeline, with metallurgical work, a maiden resource and a scoping study in the next 18-24 months.
Fear and loathing
Similarly, Q2 Metals (TSX-V:QTWO) Corporate Development Chris Ackerman calls today’s sentiment what it is – irrational.
“Lithium is probably the most loathed commodity right now,” he tells this news service.
“But EV adoption is still growing. BESS is accelerating even faster. Nations are racing to secure supply. The fundamentals are stronger than ever.”
Ackerman says there are other disruptors that are emerging and vying for centre stage, as well. With the advancement of AI and the need for data centres, as well as the need for energy storage capacity for solar and wind (renewables) energy via BESS, will be key drivers moving forward. BESS is needed to store renewable energy/energy grid storage.
He thinks the assertion that there has been declining demand for EVs is something industry watchers might challenge. The International Energy Agency, for instance, cites robust sales.
According to the IEA, global electric car sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 20 million to represent more than 25% of cars sold worldwide. Sales were up 35% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, with record first-quarter sales in all major markets.
In China, the IEA reports continuation of incentives for replacing older vehicles and falling electric car prices mean electric cars are projected to reach around 60% of total car sales in the country in 2025.
Emissions standards in the European Union and the UK will require higher shares of zero-emission car sales in 2025.
The IEA says building on more than 20% year-on-year sales growth observed in the first quarter, “these policy pushes are expected to drive up electric car sales in Europe in 2025 to reach a sales share of 25%, despite flexibility given to automakers for meeting the 2025 EU emissions reduction target”.
“While the 2025 outlook for electric car sales in the United States is uncertain based on today’s policy direction, sales are currently expected to maintain the 10% growth observed in the first quarter; as consumers take advantage of existing tax credits in view of their potential repeal, electric car sales are projected to reach 11% of total car sales over the full year,” the IEA reports.
In emerging economies other than China, sales are projected to continue growing strongly, increasing by 50% to reach 1 million in 2025.
“Globally, EV adoption continues to grow unfettered, obviously led by China which continues to dominate and expand. General consensus – always a dangerous word – tends to lean strongly toward the future of the broader lithium market being a demand-driven story,” Ackerman tells Mining.com.au.
“EVs are just one part of that, with BESS, robotics, drones and other areas coming to the fore.
“The spectacular rise and fall of lithium price over the past several years showed just how volatile a somewhat nascent market can be as the fundamentals of supply and demand get sorted out. The world quickly learned that there is plenty of lithium out there, but how much of that which came into play was only economic at higher prices.
“That mania was short-lived but, just as the peak was unsustainable, the trough has been overdone, as well. Whether one sees some manipulation in the market or the oversupply or if it’s just a volatile course plotted due to battery storage and electrification still being in its infancy, the forward demand picture looks strong.”
Ackerman suggests the market will mature to where there is balance in those forces and a price point ultimately settled where project economics will dictate which of the more marginal projects gather dust and the exceptional projects will thrive.
He says there has been a more pronounced or, at least, public, push by nations around the world – whether in collaboration or purely domestic – to secure access to critical minerals supply as well as a recognition of the oversized role China has developed, to the point of supply chain dominance in many cases.
The most recent clear example of that, says Ackermanm, is the US Department of Energy acquiring a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and another 5% in their Thacker Pass project in Nevada.
“It will be interesting to see if / how this trend plays out. There’s a lot happening globally in all resource sectors. There is a renewed interest in domestic supply chains, specifically in North America,” he continues.
“Additionally, North America is also looking to accelerate the timelines it takes to get a mine into operation without compromising the necessary environmental work that needs to happen.”
Ackerman believes the market is young, volatile, and misunderstood, but heading for maturity.
“We’re entering the phase where price finds equilibrium, and that price will be much higher than today because supply simply cannot keep pace,” Ackerman adds.
Q2 Metals plans to deliver a maiden resource in 2026, backed by strong drilling results and investor interest.
Rebalancing and a reawakening
Killian Charles, CEO of Brunswick Exploration (TSX-V:BRW), just cuts through all the noise.
“People keep saying ‘EV demand is down’. It isn’t. EVs are still growing 20-30% annually,” he tells Mining.com.au, concurring with Healy and Ackerman.
“What’s changed is that lithium supply came online faster than expected. But that wave has peaked. Future supply growth is slowing dramatically.”
For Charles, the real story is renewables and energy access.
“Lithium isn’t just about cars. It’s about the grid. Without lithium, there is no large-scale renewable adoption. That demand will dwarf EVs.”
He forecasts the market will rebalance in the near term, with incentivising prices returning by 2028. By 2030, Charles expects a larger, more stable, less volatile market and far higher total demand.
“Broadly speaking, I expect a market rebalancing to occur throughout 2026 and into 2027 followed by incentivised pricing in 2028 and beyond. This is largely driven by significant demand growth,” Charles tells this news service.
“While much has been written about declining EV demand, this is largely a non-issue. Yes, EV sales are down but so are car sales in general. EVs as a proportion of total car sales are still increasing (reaching 25% on a global basis) even if most of these sales are predominantly Chinese driven.
“Typically, bear markets for commodities are driven by very weak demand growth and, at times, reducing demand. This is not observed in the lithium market.”
“Lithium isn’t just about cars. It’s about the grid. Without lithium, there is no large-scale renewable adoption. That demand will dwarf EVs”
Demand is still forecasted to grow by 12% per annum over the next five years, which Brunswick’s CEO notes is a “staggering” amount and remains the fastest growing commodity market. By 2030, he expects the market to start to mature.
“We have seen major swings in lithium prices over the last 10-15 years and this has underscored the immaturity of the market where the addition of a single mine or single new battery plant can cause huge imbalances,” Charles tells this news service.
“By then, one would expect the overall size of the market to better absorb new assets on the supply or the demand side. Not to say there won’t be swings in the price but they will be considerably dampened.”
Brunswick’s CEO is also one of few speaking openly about geography.
“The next major supply won’t just come from Australia and China. Look at Québec, Brazil, Congo, Zimbabwe. That’s where growth is headed,” Charles continues.
Brunswick is advancing discoveries in Greenland and Québec and expects a maiden resource at its Mirage project.
Energy storage the ‘real story’
Meanwhile, Patagonia Lithium (ASX:PL3) Executive Chairman Phil Thomas zooms out to the global stage.
“The lithium story is no longer just EVs,” he explains. “The real game is battery energy storage, grid stability, AI data centres, electrification of developing economies, and even electric aviation.”
Thomas tells this news service that demand could reach 2.5-3 million tonnes LCE by 2030, driven by renewable deployment and government mandates. He warns the current oversupply stage is temporary.
“By the early 2030s, we’re back in deficit. Recycling and new technologies help, but they won’t prevent shortages.”
Thomas sees lithium as strategic infrastructure, not a commodity.
“Nations will treat lithium the way they treat oil. National security, local content, supply chain control, it’s already happening,” he adds.
As such, Thomas says the lithium sector is at a pivotal juncture. While demand is set to increase significantly, supply challenges, investment needs, and geopolitical factors present complexities. Stakeholders across the value chain must navigate these dynamics to ensure a balanced and sustainable lithium market by 2030.
“However it’s unlikely to come from EVs as apart from China and Scandinavia the take up of EV cars is less than 8%. It’s most likely going to come from Battery energy storage systems,” he agrees.
According to the International Energy Agency, global lithium demand is expected to reach 531,000 tonnes by 2030, up from 165,000 tonnes in 2023. This surge is primarily driven by the electrification of transportation and the expansion of energy storage systems.
Similarly, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts lithium demand to reach 2.4 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2030, nearly 1.8 million tonnes more than current 2025 levels.
Patagonia is positioning brine resources to serve this shift, leveraging lower costs and policy support.
Why the next boom will be different
The next lithium boom is shaping up to be different. The EV market is still growing, battery storage is surging, AI/data centres are consuming huge power, and developing markets are now electrifying.
Lithium is no longer just a battery metal, it is the foundation of the energy, technology and geopolitical systems of the future. And the people actually building the mines know it.
Investors seem to have abandoned lithium at the exact moment demand is about to go parabolic. Supply is stalling. Capital is scarce. Timelines are long. And yet the world is about to need more lithium than at any point in human history.
Healy, Ackerman, Charles, and Thomas may differ in style but they are perfectly aligned on one thing – lithium’s current downturn marks the end of the beginning – not the beginning of the end.
Global lithium extraction is forecast to grow by more than 13% annually over the outlook period, to reach over 1.8 million tonnes of LCE by 2027.
Australia is expected to remain the leading lithium supplier with some 31% global share in 2027 down from 36% in 2024. In 2027, China’s share of global supply is expected to reach 29%.
Recent advances in salt roasting technology in China have led to a sharp rise in domestic lepidolite-based output, contributing to the current global oversupply.
Argentina is also expected to significantly expand lithium extraction capacity. China’s share of global extraction is forecast to increase from 25% in 2024 to almost 29% in 2027 through a combination of new brine and hard rock projects.
According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly, global primary lithium carbonate production is forecast to rise by more than 10% a year from 744 kt LCE in 2024 to 1,161 kt LCE by 2027.
China is expected to underpin this rise, increasing from around 59% in 2024 to over 66% in 2027. Presently, there’s no significant investment in facilities to process hard-rock feedstock into lithium carbonate outside of China. World primary lithium hydroxide production is projected to rise by more than 9% a year to 781 kt LCE by 2027.
While China’s production of lithium hydroxide is expected to increase from 397 kt LCE in 2024 to 537 kt LCE in 2027, its global share is set to fall from 86% to 69% over the period. This fall follows the ramp up of new lithium hydroxide production capacity amongst several emerging producers.
Meanwhile, Australia is projected to increase its share in global lithium hydroxide production to 9%, Indonesia will rise to 5%, US to 4%, and South Korea to 3% of world output.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: Brunswick, DISR, iStock & Mining.com.au
