A new report by EY-Parthenon has stated that the US, UK, and Europe will need to invest an additional US$23.6 trillion ($34 trillion) over the next 25 years in order to end their reliance on China’s critical industries such as manufacturing and technology.
The calculation takes into account the infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing, and supply chains that currently all rely China.
EY-Parthenon’s Mats Persson notes that “localising supply chains without putting prohibitive costs on taxpayers and consumers will be one of the most formidable challenges for businesses and government alike in coming years.”
Calculated at around US$550 billion a year, the Financial Times notes that this is roughly equivalent to the amount major US technology groups invested in data centres during 2025.
The authors of the report say that the additional collective investment is “not insurmountable”, but is a significant amount on top of existing investments across energy, technology, defence, and infrastructure.
Western economies have been left quite vulnerable to Chinese regulatory changes, as seen in 2025 when China introduced export controls on rare earth metals in response to US President Trump’s tariffs on imports from China.
The US and Europe have since made great strides to secure supply and stockpiles, including the US’s Project Vault and the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which have helped drive investment into domestic projects, processing, and stockpiling.
According to the International Energy Agency, China is expected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt and around 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements by 2035.
While the West can focus on the investment side of things, China still has majority control over a number of critical minerals and their processing facilities in the near term.
Western governments are scrambling to build secure supply chains, with the next wave of progress coming from the junior explorers positioning themselves as the early-stage feeders into a Western-focused critical minerals ecosystem.
Junior explorers are increasingly framing their discoveries, drill programs, and resource growth as part of a broader Western push to localise supply, diversify processing, and reduce geopolitical shocks.
Alaska’s Graphite Creek emerges as America’s strategic graphite solution
Graphite One (TSX-V:GPH) is focused on securing the US’s position as a global leader within the graphite materials supply chain, while also ensuring the secure supply domestically.
The company is focused on the Graphite Creek Project in Alaska, US, one of the “largest known graphite deposits in the US”, as noted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Graphite One completed a Feasibility Study on the project, noting proven and probable mineral reserve tonnage at 317% of the Prefeasibility Study (PFS) reserve estimate, and contained graphite at 296% of the PFS estimate.
The company notes that the US’s dependency on imported graphite from China creates significant strategic risks, especially at a time of increased global tensions. With graphite’s critical role within the electric vehicle battery and battery energy storage system (BESS) value chain, the need for secure domestic supply is stronger than ever.
Graphite also serves as a key defence metal, vital for its role in military equipment such as ammunition, artillery, corvettes, submarines, battle tanks, and fighter aircraft.
With Graphite One working to develop the largest-known graphite deposit in the US, the company is positioning itself as a key solution to domestic graphite supply.
The Graphite One Project has a 20-year mine life, and the company has also introduced an active anode material facility to both process and manufacture anode materials in Ohio, US.
Importantly, Graphite One has the backing of the US Government, having received US$37.5 million from the Department of Defense and letters of interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States for up to $2.07 billion in loans.
Graphite One is developing the Graphite One Project with the goal of becoming a vertically-integrated US producer of ‘high-grade’ anode active materials.
Rapid Critical Metals targets gallium-germanium supply for Western tech
Rapid Critical Metals (ASX:RCM) is focused on its emerging gallium and germanium opportunity at the Prophet River Project in British Columbia, Canada. With the company having secured its BC Mines Act Permit, as reported, it is imminently launching a maiden 2,000–3,000m drill program over five priority targets.
The company has reported bulk samples at 22.69% zinc, 40 grams per tonne gallium, and 1,500 parts per million germanium.
Rapid Critical Metals notes that the macro environment provides favourable conditions for a project such as Prophet River, which is set to become one of the only ASX-listed gallium and germanium projects with ‘high-grade’ mineralisation and operating in a stable jurisdiction, with a confirmed drill permit and Q3 2026 program underway.
The company also points to the limited number of primary gallium and germanium projects globally, especially against a setting of accelerating strategic demand. China currently controls over 80% of global supply and imposed export licensing restrictions in mid-2023.
Western governments have designated both metals as critical, with an essential use-case in semiconductors, fibre-optics, solar cells, magnets, batteries, and LEDs.
Rapid Critical Metals also has silver assets in New South Wales, providing the company with strategic diversification upside. The Webbs and Consol Silver projects are set to see final diamond drill results very soon and have an ongoing 15,000m drill program focused on resource growth and discovery.
For Prophet River, the maiden drill program is set to kick off soon, with the company’s five-year permit giving them the opportunity for longer-term exploration work.
Rapid Critical Metals is building a district-scale silver platform in New South Wales alongside gallium and germanium exposure in British Columbia.
Scandium Canada advances North America’s first primary scandium supply
Scandium Canada (TSX-V:SCD) is building the only primary source of scandium in North America, with the company noting scandium’s critical role across aerospace, automotive, aeronautics, and additive manufacturing.
Scandium Canada is focused on creating a strategic platform, with the company’s Crater Lake Project in Québec, Canada, and its newly rebranded subsidiary, Scalium+. As previously reported, Scalium+ is focused on the research, development, processing, and production of aluminium products and other scandium alloys.
The company notes scandium plays a vitally important role in the global manufacturing industry due to its ability to reduce weight while maintaining strength.
Around 90% of current production comes from China and Russia, with 100% of all supply coming as a by-product.
At the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada 2026 convention, Scandium Canada signed a non-refundable contribution agreement for up to C$6.91 million ($7.1 million) under Natural Resources Canada’s Global Partnerships Initiative, marking a “defining moment” for the G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance.
The company notes that this federal support reflects the strategic value of Crater Lake and the company’s proprietary alloys. The funding also unlocks the potential for more international partnerships through Scandium Canada’s subsidiary.
Canada’s Global Partnerships Initiative is focused on supporting the development of critical mineral projects in Canada with a goal of strengthening domestic supply chains and advancing Canada’s position as a reliable supplier of critical minerals to the global markets.
While Western governments may be accelerating investment into secure supply chains, the long-term success of that strategy hinges on whether early-stage explorers can convert today’s discoveries into tomorrow’s domestic feedstock.
The progress of these companies highlights a key reality: while government support can go a long way, supply chain development cannot be driven solely by government policy or mega-project investment. It also depends on explorers proving up the resources that can ultimately anchor these new supply chains.
Write to Amy Rotman at Mining.com.au
Images: Unsplash, Graphite one, Rapid Critical Metals, Scandium Canada
