Private equity firms have been ramping up exits at their fastest pace in three years, as managers seize opportunities to crystallise returns amid volatile market conditions.
Investors are increasingly demanding results, and fund managers are unable to generate returns without deploying their stockpiles into buyouts and growth opportunities.
Private equity fund managers are now facing pressure to allocate capital prudently amid a murky economic backdrop and protracted geopolitical tensions. Fundraising is expected to remain subdued, although dealmakers are eyeing a more robust rebound in 2026.
Exits tell the story although new chapters are being written. Fresh market data shows 215 significant exit transactions announced in H1 2025, worth a combined US$308 billion.
This marks the strongest half-year performance for exits since 2022, with corporate buyers emerging as increasingly active acquirers of sponsor-backed assets. The surge reflects a more pragmatic approach by general partners, with many showing flexibility on valuations to move long-held portfolio companies off the books.
Interestingly, this global trend contrasts in some ways as exits remain a sticking point for many funds, with liquidity events proving harder to unlock, and some portfolios ageing.
The initial public offering (IPO) and trade-sale markets have been constrained, leading to some firms turning to continuation vehicles, secondaries, and other restructuring strategies to free up capital and provide investors with interim returns.
Despite these forces at play, there is some repositioning emerging. According to EY’s Private Equity Pulse: Key takeaways from Q2 2025, the shift comes against a backdrop of stronger-than-expected global M&A activity.
Nearly US$2 trillion worth of deals were announced globally in the first half of 2025 – up 30% year-on-year – with private equity accounting for 31% of the overall M&A market in the first half, up from 25% in H1 2024.
EY reports in aggregate, the number of private equity deals climbed 17% in H1 2025 versus the same period a year ago.
Large deals in particular were a significant driver of activity – the value of deals grew more than 40% versus 2024, driven by a range of deals across diverse spaces that included retail, transportation, energy, financial services, and infrastructure.
As reported by Mining.com.au, six of the top 10 global private equity and venture capital deals in March 2025 were in the US and Canada in a month which surged to the highest monthly transaction value in at least a decade.
S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows March deal value totalled US$141.93 billion across 952 deals – more than triple the more than US$42 billion amassed from 883 deals in February, and barely surpassing the previous high of US$141.79 billion in June 2021.
(Part two of this series focuses on the North American and other global markets).
Understanding private equity
Despite geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related risks, managers now appear willing to take calculated risks. A recent survey finds almost 75% of general partners reported above-average risk tolerance in 2025, underscoring an appetite to capitalise on discounted high-quality assets.
Still, headwinds remain. Since April, EY reports 30% of firms have had to renegotiate transactions due to valuation volatility, or their portfolio companies were forced to revisit deal terms (see image below).
The combination of resilient M&A volumes and heightened exit activity suggests private equity remains a powerful force in shaping global dealmaking, even as market conditions demand greater agility from sponsors.
So what is private equity – and what might the future hold?
Private equity typically refers to investments in companies that are not traded on the public stock market, although they have been active in the publicly listed and mining spaces for years.
The model is designed to deliver outsized returns, typically with an investment horizon of four to seven years. This compressed time horizon sometimes draws scrutiny, with critics suggesting private equity owners prioritise rapid value creation over long-term stewardship, particularly after the industry ballooned in the 2010s.
Strategies often centre on driving expansion and efficiency – which can mean tighter cost controls, workforce reductions, or streamlining operations – while pursuing bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate growth.
Leveraged buyouts remain common, sometimes saddling portfolio businesses with high levels of debt that must be serviced before reinvestment.
Drying up dry powder?
As mentioned, exits tell the story, however new chapters are being written. Private equity’s multi-trillion-dollar war chest in H1 2025 was shrinking after years of record highs, with data showing dealmakers deploying more capital despite global uncertainty.
S&P Global Market Intelligence figures show private equity dry powder – the capital funds held in reserve for investment – fell to US$2.52 trillion as of 30 June – down slightly from the US$2.73 trillion peak in 2023. The decline reflects a combination of reduced fundraising and a cautious resurgence in deal activity.
So-called ‘stale’ capital has long plagued the sector, with consultancy Bain & Co previously estimating that 24% of private equity dry powder was more than four years old. This is considered problematic in funds that typically span a decade.
As Q4 2025 unfolds and 2026 nears, sponsors face a fine balancing act. Capital preservation and operational resilience are overtaking aggressive recapitalisation as the dominant themes.
Analysts note that firms which will distinguish themselves are those rethinking portfolio strategy beyond first-wave cost takeouts. Commercial reinvention, AI-driven productivity, and sector selection are now central to value creation.
Meanwhile, investors and limited partners are watching closely how continuation funds and secondaries are priced and governed – transparency and alignment are emerging as critical tests of trust.
Private equity in public companies
Private equity may not have regained the frenetic deal pace of the 2010s, but the game seems far from over. Globally, private equity managed over $8 trillion in assets in 2024, highlighting the sector’s relevance.
For Australia and the broader Asia-Pacific region, momentum appears to be shifting upward.
Higher deal values, coupled with global firms’ willingness to commit more and larger amounts of capital, suggest the region remains the primary engine for private equity growth in the near term.
Australia in particular continues to draw heavyweight attention in terms of private equity interest, although deal activity has been somewhat sluggish.
A PwC report shows private equity dealmaking in H1 2025 remained subdued, as the sharp edge of higher-for-longer interest rates and extended holding periods cuts into the economics of new transactions.
While global investors still have capital ready to deploy, sponsors are recalibrating strategies in a market where unlocking value now demands more than financial engineering.
PwC’s latest report highlights that elevated borrowing costs and longer holding periods are forcing funds to squeeze greater operational performance from their portfolio companies to meet return targets.
Globally, private equity managed over $8 trillion in assets in 2024, highlighting the sector’s relevance
The numbers underscore the challenge. To achieve a 20% internal rate of return (IRR) with a 7% interest rate and a seven-year hold, sponsors now need 4.2% annual earnings growth. That is more than double the 1.7% requirement under a 3% rate environment.
In practice, funds today need to create twice the enterprise value as they would have five years ago to hit the same benchmarks. PwC notes this recalibration is evident in deal behaviour.
Deal flow is yet to meaningfully rebound, but activity is concentrating in sectors aligned to structural growth, including mining.
One example of a major driver of PE deal flow in public companies in the mining space is KKR – also known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co – a global private equity and investment firm renowned for its innovative investment strategies and significant impact on various industries.
KKR’s total Australian investments now stand at US$6.48 billion, representing about 20% of its Asia-Pacific portfolio. With 17 of the firm’s 191 Asia-Pacific investments located in Australia, the nation is proving to be a critical growth hub for KKR.
In late July, KKR committed $500 million to strategically partner with CleanPeak Energy to rapidly grow its distributed energy platform, as reported by Mining.com.au.
The global investment firm signed definitive agreements under which funds managed by KKR will support CleanPeak in growing and developing a pipeline of distributed solar, battery storage and micro‑grid solutions for Australia’s commercial and industrial sector.
Another example is the June 2025 acquisition of Zenith Energy by KKR, for a US$1.8 billion to US$2 billion consideration. While Zenith is not a miner the deal shows private equity interest in mining services and infrastructure.
Gresham Partners advised KKR in the process. Azure Capital and RBC were corporate advisors and arrangers running the sale process. Allens was legal advisor to the sellers.
In mid-2023, another specialist mining private equity firm Resource Capital Funds (RCF), via its RCF VII fund, committed $90 million in capital to support Genesis Minerals’ (ASX:GMD) acquisition of St Barbara’s Leonora assets.
RCF partner Jacqueline Murray joined the board as part of the deal, which saw Sternship Advisers act as financial advisor to Genesis on the transaction.
RCF has also deployed capital into New World Resources (ASX:NWC), among other investments in Australia.
Adamantem Capital is another Australian specialist private equity firm active in the market. Adamanten aims to invest in companies valued between $100 million and $500 million.
The firm will invest in both private and public companies in Australia and New Zealand and particularly looks for opportunities to invest in partnership with other stakeholders.
Another notable example of PE activity is Horizon Minerals (ASX:HRZ) in January locking in a $9.6 million investment from private equity Golden Crane Holdings to fund project development and potentially retire or refinance debt.
Asia-Pacific attracting attention
While the global macroeconomic outlook remains unsettled by ongoing wars and shifting US trade policies under President Donald Trump, Asia-Pacific is emerging as an investment bright spot.
Excluding Japan, Asia-Pacific private equity and venture capital investment hit US$33 billion in H1 2025, more than quadrupling the US$8 billion recorded a year earlier.
Q2 2025 alone accounted for over US$27 billion – the highest since late 2021 – with private equity representing 24% of overall deal value in the region. This signals renewing confidence among global players targeting the Asia-Pacific region’s growth markets.
Among recent headline deals, Apollo Global Management closed a US$6.3 billion double deal – the gaming and digital arm of International Game Technology (now Brightstar Lottery) and gaming operator Everi Holdings.
KKR agreed to offload its controlling stake in India’s JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals to Torrent Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued at 256.89 billion rupees.
Bain Capital, in partnership with Warner Music Group, committed up to US$1.2 billion to music catalog acquisitions.
On the fundraising front, notable closes included Recognize Partners’ US$1.7 billion Fund II, focused on digital services, and Shore Capital’s US$450 million food & beverage fund.
While not all of these investments are in mining or mining-related industries, they illustrate the growing scale of deals by private equity in Asia-Pacific.
Active advisors
As private equity becomes more active, this increases the activity of advisory firms that help drive and ink deals.
The most active corporate and financial advisory firms advising ASX-listed mining deals over the past five years include Macquarie Group, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan for large crossborder transactions.
Specialist corporate-finance houses such as Canaccord Genuity (Australia), Argonaut PCF, and Bell Potter are also active in the ECM and mid-market space.
League tables and sector analyses from data providers and mining sector reporting consistently rank BMO, Canaccord, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, and Macquarie’s Australian peers among the top M&A/ECM advisors in metals and mining by deal value and count in 2022–2025.
These league tables are the standard way the market measures the ‘most active’.
BMO Capital Markets secured the top spot in H1 2025 by advising on seven transactions totalling $4.1 billion.
Macquarie led by deal volume in 2024, advising on 11 transactions, while Goldman Sachs led by deal value, advising on $13.3 billion worth of transactions in the same year.
In part two of this series, Mining.com.au uncovers how private equity is active in other parts of the world, and the outlook for investment in the global mining industry.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: CleanPeak, Unsplash & Mining.com.au
