The doctor is in. Copper is making a comeback and global mining giants are anchoring their growth on the red, conductive, and ductile metal amid surging demand driven by electrification, renewable energy, and increasingly, AI data centres.
While prices have been trending higher in recent years, output is not matching the higher doses of the metal the market is demanding from Doctor Copper. The term Dr Copper was coined because of the red metal’s uncanny ability to predict global economic turning points due to its widespread use in construction, manufacturing, and power industries.
Rising copper prices signal economic expansion, while falling prices tend to indicate a slowdown, making this base metal a reliable, albeit not perfect, leading indicator. It’s perhaps the medicine the market now needs.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) Managing Director Hedley Widdup says his specialist mining investment company is very fond of copper, which is one of the five big commodity markets.
Copper is very much a supply and demand market with many economic factors affecting it. “That’s why they call it Dr Copper,” Lion’s Managing Director tells this news service.
Widdup says copper is a bellwether in terms of economics and is a leading indicator for market trends.
“For 20 years, copper has been budding up against a level which has been slowly rising, but you get to that level, the people who build power lines go, ‘can’t buy copper anymore, dig into stockpiles, fall away from the market’, then the price comes back,” he explains.
“What we saw early this year, late last year, was pushing through the level of about US$11,500 a tonne. We’ve gone to the first US$13,500 a tonne – that’s a precedent.
“Now, that doesn’t mean that we’re going to be at that level forever or for the next 20 years. It just means that that has happened. We no longer need to think of US$11,500 as a precedent top price where the market will fall away.”
Copper prices hit record levels in Q4 2025 due to a combination of strong demand and recent supply disruptions. The price surged to a then record US$11,870 a tonne in the second week of December reflecting tighter supply and improved market sentiment.
High prices are poised to persist throughout 2026 without a near-term injection of supply or weaker demand, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ (DISR) reports in its December 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly.
Prices are projected to ease in 2027 as operations recover from disruptions and new mines begin production. As Widdup explains to Mining.com.au, while the gold price has gone up about 125 times since 1970 – copper has only gone up 23 times.
“To leverage the economics of a copper deposit, you either need a technological change or get really good at processing low-grade, but you need heaps of it,” he says.
“If you fill this room with 0.3% copper material, it wouldn’t be economical. There just wouldn’t be anywhere enough of it. If you fill the hole of Fremantle, you’re getting close.
“Finding those big deposits is easier said than done, because if it’s big and it’s low-grade, great, it’s got to be at surface. You don’t want to be spending money on stripping or anything like that.
“Those might have okay economics at say US$11,500. But a forward price, which anyone will put into a model, might be US$8,000 or US$9,000 or maybe even a bit less. You need it to work right through the cycle and at the bottom of the dips.
“At the moment, the dips are just too low. To bring those projects on, you either need a much higher price. I think if the copper price were to double, which I know sounds ridiculous, but it did much better than double in 2004, ’05, ‘06, you’d find people exploring for it and finding more.”
So what’s in store for copper in terms of price and demand?
Growth ‘anchored in copper’
Mining giant Rio Tinto‘s (ASX:RIO) is betting big on copper’s comeback.
Commenting on its recently released full-year 2025 (FY25) financial results, Totality (formerly Saxo Australia) Market Strategist Aaron Zanchetta says copper has been the catalyst to the mining behemoth reporting a higher EBITDA, although net profit after tax of US$9.97 billion is down 14% on the corresponding period 12 months earlier.
“Rio Tinto reported a solid full-year result, with underlying EBITDA rising 9%, supported by strong copper production growth and disciplined cost control despite lower realised iron ore prices,” Zanchetta says.
“Copper was the key driver, with volumes up sharply following the Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) underground ramp-up, highlighting the group’s increasing exposure to future-facing commodities.
“A 60% payout dividend and continued investment in growth projects underline balance sheet strength, even as higher capital intensity and macro uncertainty persist.”
“Copper was the key driver, with volumes up sharply following the Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) underground ramp-up, highlighting the group’s increasing exposure to future-facing commodities“
Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott says these financial results include an 8% uplift in copper-equivalent production, driven by the ongoing ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine and record iron ore production since April from its Pilbara operations.
“This strong operational performance, together with a diversifying portfolio and firm cost discipline, underpinned a 9% increase in underlying EBITDA to $25.4 billion and operating cash flow of $16.8 billion,” says Trott.
“We delivered stable underlying earnings of $10.9 billion, after taxes and government royalties of $10.4 billion. We remain on track to achieve 3% CAGR in copper-equivalent production to 2030. With a high-quality pipeline, anchored in copper, we have clear visibility to extend this growth profile well into the next decade.”
So anchored is copper in Rio Tinto’s growth strategy, the mining behemoth is allocated about 85% of its exploration budget towards securing more of the red metal. Copper is largely the catalyst for Rio’s interest in a $350 billion merger with Glencore (LSE:GLEN) and the latter’s large copper project pipeline.
Meanwhile, BHP (ASX:BHP) reported an almost 30% increase in first-half net profit on the back of booming demand for copper. Revenue in H2 2025 rose 11% year-on-year to $27.9 billion.
BHP Chief Executive Mike Henry attributed the results largely to copper, which is at the forefront of the global mining sector’s broader growth as demand from data centres, energy, and automotive sectors pushes prices through the roof.
Australia’s output to decline
While copper may become the anchor of some mining giant’s growth strategies, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) has revised down Australia’s forecasted 2026-27 output to 3% due to lower broader company guidance.
Australian refined copper output rose by 4% year-on-year to 347 kilotonnes (kt) in the first nine months of 2025, driven by output growth at Olympic Dam and output from Solvent Extraction and Electrowinning (SX-EW) operations.
Yet mined copper output fell year-on-year to 548 kt in the first nine months of 2025, with major declines at Boddington (down 29%) and total output in Queensland (down 10%).
Queensland’s drop was mainly driven by the ongoing suspension of 29 Metals’ (ASX:29M) Capricorn operation in 2024, Mount Colin entering care and maintenance as planned, and lower output from the Mt Isa mine after underground operations ended in July 2025. South Australian output rose on higher production from BHP’s Olympic Dam and Hillgrove’s Kanmantoo project.
Australian exports for 2025-26 and 2026-27 have been revised by DISR up by $800 million and $1.6 billion, respectively, due to the upward revision in both copper prices and export volumes.
One company active in Australia’s copper space is Lincoln Minerals (ASX:LML). Speaking from the floor at last week’s RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle, CEO Chris Wilcox says the company is ready to explore the Minbrie Copper Project in South Australia with the company positioning for growth on the back of copper in 2026.
“Positioning ourselves as a discovery-focused copper company in a market where demand is set to grow faster than supply is exciting. With a clear focus on progressing exploration at the Minbrie discovery on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, we have commenced a search for a complimentary copper project,” he says.
“We continue to progress exploration approvals for Minbrie, and we continue to refine targets for an upcoming drill program which we plan to get underway during 1H CY2026.”
Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY) has identified a ‘high-grade’ lode from its final batch of drilling results at the Minyari Gold-Copper Project in the Paterson province in Western Australia.
Managing Director Roger Mason tells Mining.com.au the company plans to explore the latest updates at the Minyari Dome Project with a Prefeasibility Study (PFS) on track for September, assessing gold with copper and silver potential.
Project economics include a $1.8 billion post-tax NPV and 110% IRR.
In December, Antipa updated the resource estimate of its wholly owned Minyari Project to 3.3 million ounces gold equivalent. The updated resource hosts a total of 2.7 million ounces gold, indicating an increase of 163,000 ounces.
Minyari’s total resource estimate sits at 58 million tonnes @ 1.45 grams per tonne gold, 0.17% copper, 0.42g/t silver, and 0.03% cobalt, including 90,000 tonnes of copper, 700,000 ounces of silver, and 13,000 tonnes of cobalt.
Robust global outlook
However, DISR notes the outlook for copper growth remains strong, with growth in global demand for 2025 up to 2.3%, driven by robust global manufacturing, steady Chinese usage, and improved market sentiment (due to US interest rate cuts).
Demand for 2026 and 2027 is now expected to grow by 3%, on the back of stronger expected demand for clean energy technologies, data centres, and electricity infrastructure, DISR’s December 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly.
Disruptions at major mines suggest global output growth will be lower than previously projected, leading to sharper inventory declines. In the September quarter 2025, a total of 333 kt was cut from copper mine guidance, mainly at Kamoa-Kakula (155 kt), Grasberg (210 kt), Quebrada Blanca (70 kt), and EI Teniente (48 kt).
Demand for 2026 and 2027 is now expected to grow by 3%, on the back of stronger expected demand for clean energy technologies, data centres, and electricity infrastructure
Operations at PT Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg mine (846 kt in 2024) were halted because of a mudslide in September. Partial operations resumed in early November. A return to full operation is expected by late 2026.
Ivanhoe’s (TSX:IVN) Kamoa-Kakula mine (437 kt in 2024) in the Democratic Republic of Congo was halted in May 2025 after seismic events, lowering annual guidance by 155 kt. Output in Q3 2025 fell to 71 kt, down 39% compared with the same period last year, DISR reports.
US stockpiling
The US has access to more than enough raw copper to meet domestic demand, with new research suggesting developing processing capacity is more important than building on stockpiles planned by President Donald Trump. The US has launched a broader US$12 billion minerals stockpiling initiative.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence finds that the US can meet 146% of its domestic demand using raw copper from overseas and domestic mines, as well as from scrap – compared with 40% for China, the world’s largest consumer.
The US produces more raw copper than it consumes but lacks the processing capacity to turn it into usable metal, forcing manufacturers to depend on foreign refiners. As such, almost half of America’s mined copper concentrate is exported.
China on the other hand has long been developing a large fleet of domestic smelters, as well as acquiring and building mines domestically and overseas. China, however, consumes so much copper that the material from its domestic and overseas mines combined with scrap is still unable to meet its overall needs.
Between 2023 and 2027, new smelter capacity – primarily in China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC – is expected to drive treatment charges down, potentially even negative. The primary smelting capacity is expected to rise by 9.1% in 2025, with mine output increasing by 1.4%.
Chile still warming to copper
In December 2025, Chile elected José Antonio Kast of the Republican Party as President, marking the biggest shift to the right since the end of its military dictatorship in 1990.
This new rightwing government is aiming for 4% growth and a balanced budget by 2029, riding on the surge in copper prices. Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper, and the country profits from state-owned miner Codelco, as well as from taxes on private companies.
The new government suggests continued high copper prices could result in reaching an effective surplus before the end of this government, amid an adjustment to spending and cost cuts.
Rising metal prices are a key tailwind for Latin American equity markets, driving robust EPS momentum, Oxford Economics states in a report released today.
“We believe the metals rally is underpinned by strong fundamentals and should support upside for the region’s stocks,” says Lara Gigov, Strategist at Oxford Economics and author of the report.
“We believe the metals rally is underpinned by strong fundamentals and should support upside for the region’s stocks”
“However, we expect some dispersion in performance across the region, owing to national elections and diverging monetary policy cycles.”
Oxford Economics has moved Peru to overweight in its Emerging Market Asset Allocation but keeps Chile neutral.
“Peruvian and Chilean equities are best placed to benefit from a structural rise in copper prices as a recovery in global industrial production and AI data centre buildout drives demand for it, but we see downside risks to Chile’s copper exports,” Gigov adds.
Mexico’s less metals-dependent economy on the other hand will limit the upside from the metals rally, with Oxford Economics expecting volatility ahead of USCMA negotiations.
For Colombia, the central bank is expected to tighten monetary policy, with the risk of hikes if the incumbent stays in power at the May elections, a headwind for equity valuations.
“We stay overweight (with) Brazil,” she continues. “While the market sits towards the bottom of our equity allocation framework, we expect its growth to be boosted by 250bps of rate cuts this year, which should support Brazilian equity valuations.”
One company actively exploring for copper in Chile is Lodestar Minerals (ASX:LSR) which has begun drilling at its Three Saints Project to test priority copper-gold targets.
Speaking to this news service at last week’s RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle, Executive Director Coraline Blaud says drilling will test the geophysical anomaly at depth in order to evaluate the presence of mineralisation and alteration markets, validate and define a geological model for future exploration activities, and assess the potential scale and significance of the system.
Lodestar expects drilling to continue through the coming weeks and leverage the company’s technical understanding of its assets in northern Chile.
Blaud says this prprogram marks the first opportunity to assess the system at depth, and to identifying any signs of mineralisation and alteration that could link the target to a porphyry-style system.
Located in iron oxide-copper-gold and porphyry copper-gold belts, the Three Saints Project is proximal to the mining city of Copiapó in northern Chile.
Mitch Thomas, CEO of Solis Minerals (ASX:SLM), also tells Mining.com.au from the floor at last week’s RIU Explorers that the company’s copper strategy is very much focused in Latin America and Peru in particular with drilling at two high-priority projects.
The company recently completed due diligence on the Cucho Copper Project in Peru, where the company is under a binding agreement with Quippo. Solis will begin a drilling campaign at Cucho in late Q2 2026, with around 14 drill pad locations currently being permitted for the program.
Thomas describes Cucho to be a “standout” asset within the company’s Peruvian portfolio.
“The broad mineralised copper intercepts, strong geophysical signatures, and clear structural controls highlight a system with genuine scale,” Thomas says.
“Permitting is advancing rapidly. Against a backdrop of record copper prices and strong market fundamentals, our first drilling at Cucho aims to demonstrate the potential of this porphyry system and advance Solis Minerals toward resource discovery in 2026.”
Copper in North America
Elsewhere in North America drill rigs are turning at copper projects, particularly in Canada.
Reward Minerals (ASX:RWD) recently confirmed and expanded the copper prospectivity at the Copper Lance Project in Newfoundland, Canada, with rock chip assays returning grades up to 29% copper at the Hinds Lake Spillway Prospect.
Soil sampling also outlines new copper-gold anomalies along an 8km magnetic trend between Hinds Brook North and Conical Hill, significantly expanding the project’s pipeline of targets.
CEO Lorry Hughes says that the results from the field program are encouraging for the Copper Lance project.
“Further work is required at the Hinds Lake Spillway prospect to refine exploration models and targeting criteria, particularly in relation to the numerous untested EM anomalies located to the north and northwest,” Hughes says.
“In addition, the magnetic anomalies southeast of the Hinds Brook North-to-Conical Hill trend appear to have never been explored and now expand our pipeline of new targets for first-pass exploration when field activities resume in the spring.”
Giant Mining (CSE:BFG) recently completed an independent recommendations report, which advances its understanding of the opportunities at the Majuba Hill Copper-Silver-Gold Project in Nevada.
The report reviews the updated geological framework and provides a disciplined exploration roadmap that the company believes represents an important step in evaluating Majuba Hill’s longer term potential as a domestic US copper and silver asset.
It identifies recognition of the tourmaline breccia pipe-hosted copper system as a technical advancement that materially improves the company’s ability to target higher grade mineralisation and assess future development possibilities.
CEO David Greenway says Majuba Hill is emerging as a compelling US-based copper-silver exploration opportunity at a time when domestic critical mineral security has never been more important.
In late February 2026, Faraday Copper (TSX:FDY) entered into a non-binding letter with a wholly owned subsidiary of BHP to acquire the San Manuel Project in Arizona.
The closing of the transaction is expected by Q3 2026.
Under the agreement, both companies will negotiate and enter into a definitive purchase and sale agreement whereby Faraday will acquire the project, subject to obtaining necessary approvals. Faraday intends to issue BHP shares equivalent to a 30% interest in the company.
BHP will also be granted customary investor rights provided it maintains a minimum shareholding requirement. BHP has also agreed – for a 24-month period following executing the letter of intent – to subscribe for 30% of any Faraday equity raise, up to a maximum of US$20 million ($28.4 million) over the financing participation term.
Faraday engaged TD Securities as its financial advisor and McCarthy Tétrault and Dorsey & Whitney as legal counsel.
High prices poised to persist
Meanwhile, copper prices hit record levels in Q4 2025 hitting US$11,870 a tonne in the second week of December reflecting tighter supply and improved market sentiment.
Analysts believe the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash copper contract is expected to average US$11,975 per tonne in 2026, up 14% from the US$10,500 previous forecast. DISR reports high prices are poised to persist through 2026 without a near term boost in supply or weaker demand.
“Prices should ease in 2027 as operations recover from disruptions, and new mines begin production. The Commodity Exchange Inc (COMEX)-LME price differential has continued to vary as the markets try to work out the likelihood of further changes in US tariffs on copper imports,” according to DISR.
Copper prices are surging as the metal is vital for data centres, power grids, and electronics.
Alma Metals (ASX:ALM) was looking to connect with investors at the RIU Explorers to highlight the “scale and momentum” behind its Briggs Copper Project in Queensland.
Speaking on the floor from the event, Managing Director Frazer Tabeart tells Mining.com.au Alma is excited to be focusing on advancing Briggs through Prefeasibility Studies into its next drilling phase amid high prices.
“(Attending RIU was) also an opportunity to amplify the Briggs story, a 2 million tonnes copper deposit in a tier-one jurisdiction at a time when the copper market is increasingly buoyant,” Tabeart says.
“We see RIU as an ideal platform to build longer-term relationships with institutions, brokers, and strategic groups as we continue positioning Alma for development.”
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: iStock, Unsplash & Mining.com.au
