Copper prices climbed to another record in New York on Tuesday as the prospect of US import tariffs continued to pull metal into American warehouses, tightening supplies across the rest of the world.
The most-traded September contract on Comex rose as high as US$6.73 ($9.39) a pound, or about US$14,850 per tonne, surpassing the previous record set earlier this month.
In London, the benchmark three-month copper contract added another 0.4% to US$14,273 a tonne, after posting its highest-ever close in the previous session.
Tariff threat reshapes the market
Copper’s strength comes as traders continue to position for potential US tariffs on refined copper, which remain under consideration in Washington.
The proposed measures would impose a 15% duty from January 2027, rising to 30% from 2028, encouraging traders to ship copper into the US before any levies take effect.
The result has been a sharp divergence between US and global inventories.
While stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses have fallen steadily in recent months, inventories in Comex warehouses have surged over the past six weeks to record highs.
Despite a recent inflow, LME inventories remain about 40% below their mid-May levels, highlighting the ongoing drain on global supply.
US refined copper imports reached 885,000 tonnes in the first half of the year, up 3% from a year earlier and on track to approach last year’s record of 1.64 million tonnes, according to data cited by Reuters.
Surplus disappears
The sustained flow of copper into the US is forcing analysts to rethink the global market balance.
CRU now sees the market as broadly balanced, compared with its earlier forecast for a 639,000-tonne global surplus.
“If imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality,” CRU principal copper analyst Robert Edwards told Reuters.
Macquarie strategist Alice Fox says the build-up of copper in US warehouses will take years to absorb under normal consumption rates.
“Based on our numbers, you’re looking at years for that metal to get consumed,” she said.
Even so, Fox believes the biggest upside risk remains the tariffs themselves, noting that copper prices could “massively spike” if the Trump administration proceeds with the proposed duties.
Clarity may cap prices
Not everyone expects tariffs to be bullish once a decision is made.
Glencore (LSE:GLEN) CEO Gary Nagle says any announcement — whether the tariff is set at 0%, 15%, or 30% — could trigger a pullback as uncertainty finally leaves the market.
“You’ll have these high stockpiles in the US, which over time will be drawn down for use … not to be exported again,” Nagle said during the company’s earnings call, noting that copper already stored in Comex warehouses has effectively become duty-paid inventory.
For now, however, the prospect of tariffs continues to tighten physical markets outside the US, keeping copper prices near record highs as traders race to secure supply.
Write to Jackson Chen at Mining.com.au
Image: Glencore Canada
