The squeeze in antimony continued in the second quarter of 2025, but the extent of the anticipated demand and ever-widening supply-demand gap are still not very well understood by the investment market.
Discovery Alert founder and CEO, and seasoned investor, John Zadeh says antimony has experienced “one of the most dramatic price increases in the commodities sector”, surging from US$5,500 ($8,434) a tonne in 2019 to US$57,000 to US$60,000 a tonne this year.
Antimony is not traded on any formal metal exchange — prices are privately negotiated between buyers and sellers, often through long-term, confidential contracts.
China’s decision to completely halt its antimony exports earlier this year delivered a 50% kick to the price within weeks.
While the international market is having to pay over US$50,000 a tonne for antimony, Chinese buyers can secure it for US$30,000 a tonne.
“The resulting market fragmentation has left international buyers scrambling for alternatives while Chinese manufacturers enjoy significant cost advantages,” Zadeh notes.
“China’s approach appears to be part of a broader strategy to prioritise domestic industrialisation over global supply, using its resource dominance as economic leverage.”
China is the dominant producer of antimony, with over 75% market share. The supply-demand gap is further compounded by the limited resources outside of the country and there are no operating mines where antimony is the primary metal produced.
Antimony is a byproduct associated with mainly gold and lead, but it can also be found alongside copper, silver and tin.
Mandalay Resources’ (TSX:MND) Costerfield Mine in Victoria is the only operation in Australia producing antimony. In 2024, the mine supplied 1,282 tonnes.
The remaining supply comes from operating mines in Russia, Tajikistan and Bolivia.
This lack of supply has earned the metal a spot on critical minerals lists around the world, including in the US, Australia, the European Union, the UK, India, Korea and Japan.
Hugh Pilgram, executive director of antimony explorer Zeus Resources (ASX:ZEU), says the market experienced several significant developments in the second quarter.
“Environmental inspections in China, the dominant producer, led to reduced domestic output, tightening global supply,” he tells Mining.com.au.
“Trade scrutiny on critical minerals, including antimony, heightened, prompting Western buyers to seek more secure and diversified supply chains.
“The US Department of Defense issued additional procurement requests under the Defense Production Act to secure domestic antimony stockpiles, further tightening near-term availability.
“These factors contributed to upward pressure on antimony prices, which remained elevated compared to Q1 and well above the historical average.”
Supply cannot match demand
Antimony is more commonly known for its use in hardening the lead alloy in bullets.
James Chirnside, executive Chairman of Dart Mining (ASX:DTM), says this particular use led to the metal rising significantly in price around the times of the first and second world wars and other conflicts like the one between Ukraine and Russia.
“After the first world war, there was a shortage because it was used in munitions and everyone was trying to build strategic stockpiles. The price went through the roof,” Chirnside tells Mining.com.au.
“Everyone, all the geologists and mine companies, went out there looking for antimony, and it happened again after the second world war.”
During the more recent Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia was firing an estimated 20,000 rounds of ammunition daily, while Ukraine was firing somewhere in the vicinity of 4,000 to 5,000 rounds each day.
Chirnside says this is antimony that will never be recovered.
“So the fundamentals around antimony for the next number of years – when I say number of years, take your pick: three, five, 10, whatever – the fundamentals are really solid,” he says.
“And the price is probably going to hit US$100,000 at some point fairly soon.”
Munitions is just one source of demand for antimony, which also has important applications in electronics, energy storage, flame retardants and even glass.
“Investor understanding of antimony remains relatively limited compared to other critical minerals like lithium or rare earths,” Zeus’ Pilgrim says.
“While awareness is growing – particularly due to its designation as a critical mineral by the US, EU, and Australia – antimony’s role in flame retardants, munitions, and emerging battery technologies is still underappreciated in mainstream investment circles.”
Earlier this year, Zeus locked in a deal to acquire the Casablanca Antimony Project in central Morocco.
The project is covered by six exploration licences spanning 79km2 and is host to several historical and recent artisanal mine workings. Rock chip sampling in the second quarter returned high-grade antimony values ranging from 7.8% to 46.52%.
Pilgrim told Mining.com.au in May that most antimony deposits operate in the range of 1-3%, with economic cut-offs often below 1%.
Casablanca, however, hosts semi-massive to massive stibnite mineralisation at surface, which Pilgrim says is rarely seen and highly significant.
Dart Mining, meanwhile, recently started work to earn up to a 51% stake in the Coonambula Antimony-Gold Project in Queensland from Great Divide Mining (ASX:GDM).
The project area encompasses the historic Banshee Antimony Mine, where past drilling returned intersections of 3m @ 9.18% antimony and 6m @ 5.12%, along with 1.55 grams per tonne gold.
Previous rock chip sampling returned grades of up to 44.9% antimony.
Dart Mining also has antimony exposure via its Triumph Project in Queensland, which hosts a historic mine that was overlooked by the previous owners, and its Rushworth Gold Project in Queensland, where the company has an application over an area that has “real antimony potential”.
Lara Smith, founder and Managing Director of Core Consultants, says the volatility in the antimony market will persist until 2027.
“This is a structural deficit, not a bubble,” she notes.
“This is a structural deficit, not a bubble”
Around 15 new antimony mines are required by 2030 to meet the anticipated demand, according to the US Geological Survey.
But it is taking a little while for investors to come around to the potential of this market.
“The thing you’ll probably hear a lot about antimony is people got burnt a lot with the lithium bust and people are saying, ‘oh antimony is the same’,” Dart Mining’s Chirnside tells this news service.
“Well, the only thing that will crash the price of antimony is if China lifts export restrictions. That could halve it. That’s the only risk. If they maintain that export ban, then antimony prices will hold for quite a few years to come.”
Dart Mining non-executive director Terry Bates does not see antimony following the lithium boom-bust scenario.
“We’ve been through that with antimony several times, and geologists have been out there hunting high and low around the world looking for it,” he explains.
“That’s not to say supply won’t come on and wars will stop and demand will go down, and the price can come off over the course of a few years for sure. But it’s still highly profitable.”
To put the antimony value in context, Bates says 1% antimony is the equivalent of over 6% copper price-wise.
“People haven’t quite got that in their head yet,” he says. “The market has not comprehended that at all and it probably means that there’s a great deal more upside in antimony stocks and also in the price.”
Write to Angela East at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au, Mandalay Resources & Zeus Resources
